Real Madrid – Pachuca Casablanca Prediction Club World Cup, Group H on Sunday, 22.06.2025 at 21:00
Even eagerly awaited saviors sometimes seem to need a little time to get going. After a title-less season, Real Madrid could not manage more than a draw in Xabi Alonso’s debut.
However, after a cautious start to the Club World Cup, the motivation should now be all the greater to really strike in their second appearance:
Consequently, my Real Madrid Pachuca tip is also anticipating the return of the white ballet to the dominance that has been lacking recently.
In their quest for what I firmly expect to be a clear victory, Real should be helped by the fact that their recent 1-1 draw against Al Hilal was essentially down to a lack of finishing.
Had it not been for the nervousness from the penalty spot that plagued them throughout last season, their debut in the United States would almost certainly have been more successful.
The Spaniards now face the challenge of putting the ball in the back of the net again in the Real Madrid vs. Pachuca prediction:
However, as their Mexican opponents have been struggling with disappointing results recently, there should be no insurmountable obstacles standing in the way of Real’s intended redemption.
Real Madrid – Pachuca prediction & bets
While Real Madrid’s first appearance in Group H showed some potential for surprises, the action is now likely to return to the beaten track.
Now, it is a characteristic of surprises that they do not tend to announce themselves. However, the performance gap and Pachuca’s modest form simply have to argue against another slip-up by the big favorites.
As expected, the clearly emerging circumstances are also reflected in my other Real Madrid Pachuca tips: With the half-time/full-time bet Real/Real at odds of just under 1.80, I am assuming clear circumstances from start to finish.
This assessment is also in line with my prediction that Real will be well ahead at half-time: for the -1 handicap after 45 minutes, I’m even taking strong odds of 3.5 if they win!
What you need to bear in mind when betting on Real Madrid vs. Pachuca
- Real Madrid have only kept two clean sheets in their last seven competitive games. Against Al-Hilal, Los Blancos recorded an xG value of 2.6, the third-highest on the first matchday – but they missed their seventh penalty of the season from 19 attempts.
- Pachuca have won just one of their last seven games (four defeats, two draws) and have failed to score in three of those. Against RB Salzburg, they scored their first competitive goal since May 8.
- The Asian handicap is -1.75 for Los Blancos, and our internal model predicts a Real Madrid win by at least two goals. However, Real Madrid have won only two of their last 21 competitive games by two or more goals.
- These two teams met in the final of the 2024 Club World Cup, with Real Madrid winning 3-0. Real have played Mexican teams four times, winning three times but losing the third-place play-off against Necaxa in 2000.
- On the pitch against Al-Hilal, Trent Alexander-Arnold delivered more crosses (five), got into the final third more often (12) and played more passes in the final third (16) than any of his teammates.
Real Madrid – Pachuca: odds analysis
Given the considerable difference between the market values of the two teams (Real Madrid: $1.53 billion, Pachuca: $64.1 million), the decision for a favorite here should be a no-brainer.
That’s why I’ve decided on a comfortable victory for Madrid, but our AI goes one better.
The first Real Madrid Pachuca AI tip is going all in, but the handicap win of -2 will return almost three times the stake at the best bookmakers.
A slightly less risky tip is that Pachuca will fail to score against Real – the Mexicans have struggled to find the back of the net in recent weeks.
Given these offensive problems, I think the odds are quite impressive. I’m certainly not going to turn down the 1.98 offered by Betano, for example, and will therefore be keeping my fingers crossed for Real’s defense.
On the other side of the pitch, however, goals are almost inevitable, which argues in favor of placing a goal scorer bet.
With Kylian Mbappe’s participation in doubt, our AI model is switching to an alternative that was already looking likely. If Vinicius Junior scores at least once, this would also be good for a near doubling of the stake (current odds: 1.92).
The best odds for Real Madrid Turin vs. Pachuca
If the second matchday of the Club World Cup once again offers a number of clear favorites, the Royals will be no exception:
At the moment, it seems almost impossible to achieve a return of more than 30 percent on a win for the Madrid favorites.
Those who are not discouraged by the clear Real Madrid Pachuca predictions can realize even higher profits with a win for the underdog.
This is already the case if the Spaniards settle for a draw again in their second game – but the double-digit odds for a Mexican victory really take the cake.
Real Madrid vs. Pachuca match analysis:
Real Madrid was understandably a little frustrated after their opening game. Despite having the third-highest xG value (2.6) of the matchday, Los Blancos only managed a 1-1 draw against Al Hilal.
Los Blancos have won only two of their last 21 competitive games by a margin of two or more goals, something Xabi Alonso is determined to change.
The Spaniards will see this as the perfect opportunity to secure an important victory in the group. They should have no problems against an opponent they already defeated 3-0 in last year’s Club World Cup final.
Without Mbappé, Madrid’s offense will try to outplay Pachuca’s defense, which has conceded 16 goals in its last eight away games.
Gonzalo Garcia is a key threat here, as he was the only goalscorer in the first leg. He recorded 1.2 xG from four shots on goal. In combination with Trent Alexander-Arnold, who provides creativity on the wing, Alonso will be calling for better finishing after missing seven penalties this season.
Pachuca will probably try to limit the damage, focus on their compact formation and hope for counterattacks. Against RB Salzburg, the team showed the first tentative signs of life with 1.4 xG and their first goal since the beginning of May, but it will be much more difficult to create clear scoring chances against Madrid’s defense.
Real Madrid form check
Real Madrid looked merely trying in their opening game. The dynamic, direct, and fearsome team we normally expect to see from Los Blancos was nowhere to be seen, much like in the final stages of this season’s Champions League.
The Spaniards were too slow when in possession. They were also slow without the ball. Al Hilal were the better team in the first half, but to be fair, Real Madrid improved in the second half. The Royals recorded 1.73 xG after the restart, but failed to score.
The man of the match, Gonzalo Garcia, spoke to reporters after the game and explained why Los Blancos may not have been at their best: “I don’t want to make excuses, but it was very hot and the game took place at a time we’re not used to. That also applies to our opponents, so it’s no excuse. It would have been better to play at a different time.”
The weather and the time of day will continue to have a significant impact, especially on European teams. These players are not used to such conditions in their home environment.
Pachuca form check
The Tuzos have arrived at the Club World Cup in inconsistent form. Unfortunately, they were a bit unlucky in the draw – and to make matters worse, they started the competition with a defeat against Salzburg.
The first matchday should have been a great opportunity to pick up points for qualification – but with 1.40 xG against Salzburg’s 0.91 xG, the Mexicans were merely trying hard.
Despite these efforts, they were denied success and now find themselves in a difficult position – not a good starting point for the match against Real Madrid.
The lack of quality in attack is reflected in the overall statistics for the season. The Tuzos have scored an average of just 1.38 goals per game in 37 matches. However, their xG was slightly higher at 1.59 xG per game. Despite the small difference, this highlights the problems they are struggling with in the final third.
The Mexicans have averaged 12.92 shots on goal per game this season, but have only converted 11% of their shots. They have failed to score in 30% of their league games.
Against an opponent like Madrid, Pachuca will need to remain compact and organized and hope for rare counterattacking opportunities. The team is very resilient, but their structural weaknesses and lack of finishing make this a difficult task.
My tip: Real win with a -1 handicap
