Real Madrid – Real Sociedad Tip La Liga, Matchday 24 on Saturday, 14/02/26 at 21:00
Anyone who has read my successful tip on the Basques’ most recent cup appearance knows that I have a good feeling for where the guests are currently playing. In contrast to the upcoming opponent, they convince me all along the line.
I will therefore put a Real Madrid Real Sociedad tip to the test, which not many have on their radar, because in my eyes they all make the same mistake: they overestimate the Whites.
The selection Oyarzabal meets at attractive odds of currently 2.35 is therefore a much greater temptation for me. Because if anyone can catch the capitals off guard, it’s the proven national player.
Oyarzabal has the highest xG value (9.8) within his team, fires the most shots per game (3.0) and also the most shots on goal (1.3).
Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad AI Predictions:
I don’t want to say that I’m disappointed with our Real Madrid Real Sociedad AI prediction, because in my eyes our data model makes the same mistake as most German bookmakers: they are too blinded by the bare numbers.
Because the Whites have won both their last five direct duels against the Basques and 10 of the last 11 La Liga home games in 2025/26 – even against the great FC Barcelona. Of course, that makes an impression.
So I can certainly understand where the suggestion to win Real Madrid at odds around 1.37 comes from. But I maintain that the change of coach was not a happy one and it depends heavily on the quality of the opponent whether Arbeloa’s system will falter again!
Predicted chance of winning:
| Victory Real Madrid |
Draw |
Victory Real Sociedad |
| 71.6% |
16.6% |
11.8% |
I don’t quite trust the host against this opponent! However, if there’s anyone in their ranks who is immune to all criticism, it’s certainly their best man, who our Real Madrid Real Sociedad AI prediction also has in mind.
The recommendation Kylian Mbappe scores is by no means plucked out of thin air at odds around 1.43. Especially since the Frenchman has scored an incredible 38 goals in 31 games and thus puts a ball into the opponent’s net every 70 minutes on average.
In addition, the Basques’ defence offers quite a bit of a target for attack. Because their xGA value is the seventh highest in the league to date and reveals defensive weaknesses that could well be exploited by the wonder striker on Saturday.
What you need to know about Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad betting
- Spectacle at the corner flag: At least 11 corners have been taken in six of Real Madrid’s last seven league games – a trend that points to a lot of action down the wings.
- The power of the first goal: At the Bernabeu, the opening goal is almost a guarantee of victory – in the last nine home games, the team that took a 1-0 lead has always won (Madrid 8 times, 1 defeat).
- Defensive vacuum at La Real: Real Sociedad have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 17 league games – currently the longest negative streak in the entire Spanish elite class.
- Entertaining away trips: When the Basques play away from home, goals are scored by both sides – both Sociedad and the hosts have scored in eight of their last nine away games.
