La Liga, Monday, 13/01/2025 at 9:00 pm
The Primera Division returns from the short winter break! While the best have played the Supercup among themselves, the other teams prepared for the re-start. I will now take a closer look at two of these clubs.
My Real Sociedad Villarreal tip includes two teams that are among the top teams but are not exactly winning a lot of games. I will therefore tell you why I have chosen the “double chance X2” bet for this game.
Defensive? It smells like Champions League! Offensive? You could be in for a relegation battle! If you take a closer look at Real Sociedad, you will quickly notice the club’s curious statistics.
The Basques have been among the top teams in Spain for years, but this season they are competing in the Europa League. There, they have achieved a win rate of 50 percent after six rounds – a figure they have not achieved in La Liga.
The team’s big problem is their inconsistency: seven wins, four draws and seven defeats is not the best possible result. They are five points behind sixth place.
What did I mean at the beginning about the offensive and defensive alignment? Quite simply: the offense scores very rarely! Only 16 goals have been scored, with only two clubs scoring fewer.
On the other hand, however, it has only been scored in its own box 13 times – Atletico Madrid, the best defense, is only one goal better.
Conversely, this means, of course, that not many goals can be scored here. There is an average of 1.6 goals per game, and the “both teams score” looks very restrained.
This tip would have been correct only THREE TIMES in the entire game time! It was even close to being just a single game, because the other team scored twice very late (in the 84th and 90th+8 minutes).
You can probably already guess: the “Over 2.5 goals” bet probably wasn’t placed often either. The limit was only broken four times, and there were always exactly three goals in these games.
In this respect, it is worth registering with Bet365 to see that if you bet on “under 2.5 goals” on Monday, the odds will be a strong 1.76. The “BTS – No”, on the other hand, will get an even better 1.92.
For three home games, the Basques’ fans will be pleased to hear, they have not conceded a goal. What about Villarreal, are they a welcome opponent on Monday?
The results have been changing for years. Bad for the home side: since August 2017, exactly one home game against Villareal has been won! In 2020, when the two last met on a 19th matchday, Sociedad lost 1-2.
Nevertheless, for our bookmakers it was a matter of course to assign the role of favorites to the hosts. The odds come to an average of 1.95 to 3.95, even though Villarreal is doing better in the table.
The Yellow Submarine is in fifth place, but wins are also in short supply here. They hadn’t managed a win for four consecutive games until they broke their duck with a 5-2 win over Leganes just before Christmas.
Seven goals? You can see that at Real Sociedad sometimes in a whole month! Villarreal has a completely different style of play. 34:30 goals? The average jumps to a 3.6, more than double!
Defensively, of course, this reflects well on the team, ONLY bottom-placed Real Valladolid has conceded more goals. Incidentally, Villarreal prefer to play away from home, with five wins, two draws and two defeats, their record looks quite respectable.
0-2 in Bilbao and 0-2 at Real Madrid? You can expect to lose against these two very strong home teams. The team has only kept a clean sheet once, but it’s a good thing that Real Sociedad doesn’t have much going forward.
Some stand for a lack of goals, a strong defense and the “refusal” of “both teams scoring”; with the others, goals are scored without end, the defense is virtually non-existent and there is no chance of boredom.
On Monday, Villarreal and Real Sociedad will face each other, two teams that couldn’t be more different. That’s why I didn’t decide on an over/under bet, because anything could happen here.
My analysis has shown that Real Sociedad do not particularly like playing Villarreal at home. And since the Yellow Submarine have only lost once away from home, to Bilbao and Real Madrid, I have decided on the following bet:
The guests score!
