World Cup qualifiers, Friday, 21.03.2025 at 20:45
While some national teams are still playing out the knockout phase or relegation of the Nations League, other countries are already starting the World Cup qualifiers for the tournament in summer 2026, where Romania and Bosnia will face each other in Group H.
These two nations are undoubtedly Austria’s biggest rivals in the battle for a direct World Cup ticket. The first-placed team is guaranteed a place in North America, while the runners-up will have to take a detour via the play-offs.
That’s why there’s a lot at stake in my Romania Bosnia betting tip. I think the visitors can score in the first group game, but it should remain at a maximum of two goals for Bosnia. I have put together a corresponding bet at Bet-at-home.
The pecking order ahead of the start of the World Cup qualifiers is clear. Austria are the top favorites to win the group, while Bosnia and Romania are considered the runners-up – so one of the two nations will definitely miss out on the 2026 major event.
And then there are Cyprus and San Marino, two countries that cannot compete at this level. In a home game, I only believe that the neighboring Greek country can snatch a point from the bigger nations with a bit of luck.
The bookmaker forecast
The top sports betting apps agree with me on this assessment. Austria has 1.58 to win the group, followed by Romania (3.75) and Bosnia (5.50). Cyprus (34.0) and San Marino (501.0) have significantly higher odds.
On the first matchday, Romania is ahead with odds of 1.80, Bosnia has odds of 4.40 and the draw is rated as slightly more likely at 3.45. For me, the difference is a little too clear:
Analysis: Romania vs. Bosnia
That’s why I’ve already taken a closer look at the odds for the double chance X2 (1.95), which almost doubles the stake. However, my respect for the home factor is ultimately too great, which is why I prefer to leave the bet alone.
However, I’m expecting anything but one-way soccer this evening, in fact I’m expecting a really close game. The Bosnia goal is a little too small for me at just under 1.50, but if we limit the number to one or two goals, things will be very different!
I have mixed the corresponding over and under odds in the Bet-at-home configurator. I like the 1.61 much better!
Romania will of course want to score three goals at home in the fight for a World Cup place. The Bosnians, who were at least able to recharge their batteries in their last international match, are likely to have a few moments to switch gears.
The result was a 1-1 draw against the Netherlands. But the truth is that Oranje rotated a lot of players as they had already secured second place in the table. Nevertheless, the performance of the group runners-up was encouraging
Odds Analysis
As promoted teams, Bosnia had to play against Germany and Hungary in League A alongside Holland. In total, they only picked up two points and with a goal difference of 4:17, they went straight back to League B.
A draw against Hungary, two goals against the Netherlands in the first leg and a narrow 2-1 draw against Germany were bright spots for the team led by former HSV star Sergej Barbarez, who has now been coaching the team for almost a year.
Under his leadership, however, Bosnia is still waiting for a win. Disappointing: The year 2024 ended without a single win, the last of which came in October 2023 against Liechtenstein in the European Championship qualifiers.
In addition to the difficult group in the Nations League, the association did not choose easy friendly opponents in England and Italy. Given the quality of the opponents, I don’t want to overstate the poor results.
As eleven of the last 12 games have seen goals conceded, the 1.20 for the Romania goal as a combined odds does not look wrong. As individual odds in the higher segment, the goal of both teams is very attractive at 1.90.
Romania dominated the Nations League group
While Bosnia swam with the big fish, Romania dominated League C. Six wins in six games against Kosovo, Cyprus and Lithuania. The group win also means that Romania will continue in League B in the next Nations League season.
With an impressive goal difference of +15 and only three goals conceded, the results were clear-cut. Only in Lithuania was it only enough for a 2:1 win and against Kosovo it was only 0:0 until the match was abandoned. At home, however, the clean sheet only lasted in one of the three matches.
Before the Nations League, Romania got involved in the European Championship, where it reached the round of 16 after a clear 0:3 defeat. Midfielder Ravzan Marin has been a reliable scorer in recent games, scoring three times from the spot in the Nations League.
He only failed to score against Kosovo, and his odds are really good at 4.50 on Friday.
Bosnia still without a win in Romania
Bosnia will be hoping first and foremost for the qualities of Ermedin Demirovic (4.00) and veteran Edin Dzeko (4.00).
I assume that we’ll see the two of them playing as a double. Two individual odds with the same stake are worth considering, after all the duo have already scored all four Nations League goals.
Or even better: at Winamax you can place a double chance goalscorer bet at odds of 2.55. If one of the two attackers scores, the bet is won. The odds are also free of betting taxes and new customers could receive up to 100 euros in free bet credit.
Bosnia and Romania have already played a few matches, six to be precise, and so far the Zmajevi have not won anything away from home. Romania won 2:0 and 3:0 in the 2002 and 2011 European Championship qualifiers.
In the Nations League in 2022, they at least managed to score an away goal, but in the end the hosts were again the clear winners (4:1). At the same time, Bosnia-Herzegovina also managed to win its two home games 1-0 and 2-1.
It is also clear that when Bosnia has scored against Romania at all, it has always been one or two goals. It is unlikely to be any more than that in the upcoming clash. I expect the match to be too close. At the same time, I don’t expect any fewer goals.
Bosnia has a lot to offer in offense, while I see their opponents’ weak point in defense, which for obvious reasons only came to light in exceptional cases against the smaller soccer nations in the Nations League.
My Romania Bosnia betting tip:
Romania will do more to win on Friday than Bosnia. But that could prove to be the hosts’ undoing. Full-blooded strikers Dzeko and Demirovic don’t need many chances to score in transitional moments.
Overall, I expect a very tight affair to the end, so the 1X2 market is too hot for me.
Ultimately, I trust Bosnia to sell themselves dearly and not go home without scoring. After all, Romania have only managed to keep a clean sheet once at home in the Nations League against weaker opponents.
My Romania-Bosnia prediction: 1-2 Bosnia goals!
