NFL 2024/25: Saints – Browns
The Saints started the season so well, but then things went downhill and to make matters worse, Derek Carr got injured. However, last week they got an important win in the battle for the division crown regardless!
At a bookmaker with Apple Pay, my Saints Browns betting tip is that New Orleans will not stay in the fast lane.
The NFC South is possibly the worst of all divisions and a win over the distressed Browns would put the Saints back in business, but there’s a good reason why they’ve already accumulated 7 losses…
The Browns are coming off their bye week and now travel to Louisiana to take on the Saints in Week 11. They really needed this short breather.
Not only can they now fully focus on Jameis Winston as their quarterback, but the injury-plagued offense has had time to recover.
Nick Chubb, the Browns’ running back, must have been particularly pleased about the short break, as he will have a heavy load to carry in New Orleans. Everything will go through him!
And that would come as no surprise! The Saints’ defense is currently struggling with the opposing running game and looks pretty old.
In terms of Expected Points Added (EPA) allowed per run, the Saints only rank second to last, and the success rate of opposing handoffs also speaks volumes: 30th.
The run-stop-win rate is also no laughing matter at 29th. On average, they let their opponents get away with 5.1 yards per run attempt.
Accordingly, with Chubb and Jerome Ford in the run game, the Browns could try to give the Saints defense a run for its money. But the Browns’ own defense is not to be underestimated and will certainly target Saints quarterback Derek Carr.
Cleveland’s defense comes in with the fourth-highest pressure per dropback and has already collected 27 sacks on the season so far – no surprise given their blitz-happy tactics.
On the other side, Carr faces a banged-up offensive line that ESPN lists 31st in pass-block win rate. While Carr has only been sacked six times in seven games, the pressure will likely mount against the Browns.
Last week, Carr was able to connect on two deep passes to rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling in a win over a passive Falcons defense on two impressive 40 and 67-yard throws.
But against the blitz-happy Browns, Carr might not have the time in the pocket to pull off another similarly successful pass.
What does this all mean for you now? For one, the Browns will likely establish a strong running game to take advantage of the Saints defense’s weaknesses.
On the other, things look bleak for the Saints, as their offensive line will offer Carr little protection. This is where Cleveland could have a decisive advantage if Carr gets pressured and thus can’t utilize his “big-play weapon” Valdes-Scantling.
So if you’re flirting with a betting slip this weekend, it might be worth backing the Browns and their dominant defensive work – precisely because they simply have more substance on both sides of the field.
An exciting duel awaits us, and it’s worth taking a close look at the Saints Browns odds on the Admiralbet app along with the latest offers.
Derek Carr has thrown for at least three touchdowns in three of the Saints’ last four games following a win. If you want to bet on Carr throwing at least two touchdown passes, the odds of 2.80 seem like a solid choice for you.
But there is also a promising option on the Browns’ side: Nick Chubb has scored at least one touchdown in four of the last five games as an underdog against teams from the NFC South.
The bookmakers are offering average odds of 2.05 if you bet on Chubb to score a touchdown. This selection could be particularly interesting for combination bets.
Overall, you could say that betting on Carr and Chubb offers the best odds. So you could profit from both teams!
Conclusion: In my Saints Browns prediction, I am leaning towards a Browns win.
It’s a close call, but three scenarios stand out to me as promising: a win for Cleveland, a Nick Chubb touchdown and a total under 45.5 points.
The Browns defense has the potential to allow the Saints limited gains in space and keep the pressure high on Derek Carr, which could spell trouble for New Orleans.
At the same time, I see Chubb in good position to score a touchdown against the Saints’ weak run defense, as New Orleans often falls behind against run plays.
So my Saints Browns tip is Win Cleveland & under 44.5 points.
