Coppa Italia, Monday, 12.08.2024 at 20:45
As a small appetizer for the Serie A season that is about to start, I can serve you the Coppa Italia duel between the two second division teams that are part of my Salernitana Spezia prediction.
It’s the famous “misery versus misery” duel between two clubs that have inevitably lost much of their playing quality following their respective relegation from the Olympus of Italian soccer.
After all, the limited opportunities to generate revenue in the lower house require a significant cut in salaries
Salernitana managed to stay in Serie A for a year, but in the following season they were no longer able to keep up with the relegation candidates – not even close!
Even if a magical intervention had doubled the southern Italian side’s 17 points on the final matchday, it would still not have been enough to keep them out of the relegation zone.
Accordingly, there was a big sell-off in the summer, which I believe will have permanently weakened the team with the seahorse in its logo. Serie B is simply too competitive to be able to play at the top after so many departures.
Salernitana sold all the players who were part of the 2023/24 first division squad and attracted the interest of big clubs in the summer.
Loum Tchaouna, for example, moved to Lazio for €8 million, Lorenzo Pirola went to Olympiakos for €3 million and Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi also left the beautiful Gulf of Salerno for around €1.8 million.
New arrivals – as is usual with Serie B clubs – include many young players on loan from well-known clubs such as Fiorentina (Davide Gentile and Lorenzo Amatucci). Although they have talent, they do not have enough experience to finish in the top three in such a demanding league competition.
In my opinion, the only way Salernitana can stay in the media spotlight in 2024/25 is by successfully surviving a few rounds of the national cup competition
Salernitana have already played a few test matches with the newly assembled team, which has lost a lot of its playing strength, but they didn’t really convince me.
The 9:0 against the amateur club Delfino Curi Pescara is no great feat, which is why I paid much more attention to the 0:1 against the Greek club Volos and the 1:1 against league rivals Bari.
If a stronger opponent awaited Salernitana in the first round, I wouldn’t give them much of a chance. Spezia, however, are trying to recover from a disastrous 2023/24 season themselves
You might think that Salernitana and Spezia, who played together in Serie A until a few years ago, will now compete for one of the three promotion places in Serie B.
However, the Ligurians have also weakened their squad after a disastrous 2023/24 season, which they finished just above the relegation zone in the second division.
The last good players with Serie A potential such as Emil Holm, Dimitrios Nikolaou and Szymon Zurkowski left the Bianconeri in the summer.
However, they were able to sign Giuseppe De Serio and Francesco Cassata from Atalanta and Genoa respectively. These two talented players could at least help prevent the club from slipping back into the relegation zone
I could of course also take into account the direct comparison when determining which Salernitana Spezia tip is actually worth tapping into the Bet365 app. However, this would most likely lead me down the wrong path.
The teams are composed quite differently than in the joint Serie A season 2022/23, when Salernitana were always able to take something countable in both the first leg (1-0) and the second leg (1-1).
The fact that in none of the last eight head-to-head meetings has the winning team – if there has been one – won by more than one goal shows you just how close this pairing usually is.
Even without this data, I personally would have expected a close game, so close that I considered a special bet right from the start, according to which it will go into extra time at a score of 0:0 or at most 1:1.
The odds on offer for such a Salernitana Spezia tip are around 4.45 at every German bookmaker I checked – depending on the bookmaker
Conclusion: The Coppa Italia first round match between Salernitana and Spezia pits two teams against each other who sold many of their best players in the summer.
Neither team will therefore play a major role in the promotion race for one of the top three Serie B places.
After 90 minutes, it could well be that the score is still 0-0 or 1-1 in a sluggish game. You should therefore be prepared for the possibility of extra time in this cup tie.
My Salernitana Spezia tip: Draw & Under 2.5 goals
