La Liga, 30th matchday on Sunday, 06.04.2025 at 4:15 pm
Has Atletico Madrid already said goodbye to the title race? It seems so, because while the Colchoneros are in crisis, the competition is winning one game after the other. The team is now nine points behind the leaders going into matchday 30.
In my Sevilla Atletico Madrid betting tip, I will now tell you why I am not exactly optimistic about a goal festival. So I’m betting on under 2.5 goals – and that after Atletico’s 4-3 win in the first leg!
That was probably a few too many mistakes. La Liga is currently delivering a table picture that turns the former three-way race into a two-way race. Barcelona leads the competition, Real Madrid follows three points behind.
Atletico, not so long ago still top of the table, have lost their place at the top. Since Barca is on an absolute roll and they have lost their flow, they have fallen nine points behind.
Only the most optimistic can still imagine that it could still be enough for the league title in 2025. Three wins from the last ten games? This rate cannot be enough to really attack the two rivals.
Currently, the team is even in a phase in which they have not won three times in a row – this has not happened to them before. 1:2 against Getafe, 2:4 against Barca and 1:1 against Espanyol, here they had hoped for much more.
Interesting: Atletico have not conceded a goal in the first half in eight games. But: in the last three matches alone, they have conceded a whopping seven goals in their own net after half-time!
That’s why I take a look at the Bet365 app and see that if you bet on Sevilla scoring a goal in the second half on Sunday, you get odds of 2.00.
Shortly before Christmas, Atletico won 2-1 against Barca, when their own form was still excellent and their rivals were in the throes of a crisis. Why am I mentioning this? Quite simply because Atletico have only won one other away game since then.
The Colchoneros have already played nine draws, with the last seven all ending in a 1-1. So I automatically look at Oddset and see that this outcome bet would lead to odds of 6.50 this time.
In the first leg, something happened between Atletico and Sevilla that both sets of fans will remember for a long time: seven goals were scored! Simeone’s team won 4:3, which is not something that happens every day, even to the best defense in the league.
Atletico was already behind 1:3, and I probably don’t have to tell you that the winning goal was scored in the last minute. Atletico haven’t lost a league home game against Sevilla since September 2008.
Nice, but… well, it’s not being played in Madrid. Away from home, the Colchoneros have just lost three of their last four games against Sevilla, and have only won once since February 2018.
You probably already know that five of the last six meetings in Seville had a maximum of two goals, and the sixth had exactly three. But how do our bookmakers rate both teams?
The average odds of 2.20 to 3.40 basically suggest that Atletico are favored going into the game. Sevilla, in 11th place, have nothing to do with the fight for Europe.
It’s been a few weeks since things went a bit more consistently, and now the worm is back in its hole again. First the Andalusians lost 0-1 to Bilbao, then 1-2 to Betis Sevilla. Sure, strong opponents, but that also applies to Atletico.
With 33 goals, the attack often holds back. This is particularly evident when I look at the domestic statistics, because: at home, it has only rung 12 times in 14 games!
It has only managed to score twice, and that was in a 2-1 win against bottom-placed Valladolid. How did these goals come about? One was an own goal, the other a strong move just before the final whistle.
Only three home games produced more than two goals, the average is 2.0 – a 4-1 defeat to Barca raised it. Fittingly, the top scorer, Dodi Lukebakio, has also scored eight of his 11 goals away from home.
Has the championship train already left for Atletico? The Colchoneros had to let themselves be demolished, especially their poor performances away from home have caused them to fall too far behind. They also went out of the Copa against Barca (0:1) without ever really shooting on goal.
Sevilla would love to see their opponents struggle, as they are not in a position to make it to Europe. They don’t feel particularly comfortable at home anyway, especially their attack rarely comes into its own.
An important point, because: Despite the crisis, Atletico still has the best defense in the league. Since most of the duels in recent years have not been particularly spectacular either, I have decided on the following bet:
The 2.5 goals will not be cracked!
