Europa League, 1st qualifying round, Thursday, 10.07.2025 at 20:00
Slowly but surely, the 2025/26 season is kicking off on the Old Continent – and betting providers offering PayPal as a payment method are already positioning themselves to win you over with great sports betting bonuses.
With my Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Ilves prediction, I’m trying to bag the first successful betting slip of the Europa League qualifiers, which are just getting underway.
If you’ve been in the betting business for a while, you know that it’s worth taking a closer look at the early qualifying rounds of the Europa League or Conference League – especially when Nordic teams face clubs that are still on summer break in southern Europe.
On Thursday, I’m focusing on a prime example of exactly this scenario: Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Ilves Tampere.
And believe me – this game is more explosive than the current Shakhtar Donetsk vs. Ilves odds from the tax-free bookmakers would suggest at first glance!
The reason why I deliberately chose a match like this is because of the so-called countercyclical soccer calendar.
While many southern European teams are just warming up after the summer break, clubs from Finland, Sweden, and Norway are already in the middle of their season.
Ilves Tampere, for example, has already played 15 games in its domestic league and is just one point behind leaders Inter Turku in the title race. The guys are in rhythm, physically on point – and you can see that on the pitch.
A look at the recent past also shows that Ilves can be a tough opponent in Europe. Last year, the team knocked Austria Vienna out of the second qualifying round of the Conference League.
And that was no fluke, but a well-thought-out, combative performance with the necessary tactical bite.
That success stuck – and that’s exactly why I can’t shake the feeling that Shakhtar won’t just march through here either.
Because let’s be honest: things are anything but smooth sailing for Shakhtar at the moment. They only managed to finish third in their domestic league – a real crash by Ukrainian standards.
The last friendly against Slovacko a few days ago? A rather lackluster performance, with only a 1-1 draw on the board at the end. The squad doesn’t exude much confidence at the moment.
On top of that, the game will be played in Ljubljana because home games are still not possible in Ukraine. So home advantage only exists on paper – fans, atmosphere, home advantage? None of that.
Nevertheless, the bookmakers are offering odds on Shakhtar Donetsk Ilves as if it were a foregone conclusion: 1.18 on Shakhtar, 6.75 on a draw, 14.00 on Ilves – which, in my opinion, is completely exaggerated.
Sure, the Ukrainians are the favorites, and that’s understandable. But Ilves isn’t just some ragtag team from the provinces; they’re a well-coordinated squad with confidence and a realistic chance of getting a respectable result.
I’m not saying they’ll win – but a narrow defeat, 1-2 or 0-1, is definitely possible. If you’re feeling brave, you should therefore take a look at all the betting options that don’t assume a clear start-to-finish victory for the Ukrainians.
Because one thing is certain: the Finns won’t just roll over – and that could be exactly what makes your bet a winner.
Fortunately, there are currently many good offers on the betting markets for a successful Shakhtar Donetsk Ilves tip.
The bookmakers have rightly recognized that this is one of the most interesting and sought-after matchups of the first week of the 2025/26 European Cup.
Specifically, I have two or three scenarios in mind, which I would now like to reveal to you here.
With the double chance X2 at 6.90, you not only cover a draw, but also a big surprise from Ilves – an exciting value tip!
If you’re feeling even bolder, you can even go directly for Ilves to win at average odds of 7.30.
In their current form and with the psychological advantage of match practice, the Finns are by no means without a chance against this “favorite on paper.”
Conclusion: The Ukrainians don’t seem to be playing well together yet and will probably need a few more weeks to really get up to speed.
Shakhtar have a lot at stake in Ljubljana, but the one-sided odds do not reflect the actual situation.
Ilves is in the middle of the season, physically on top form – and that’s exactly why I don’t see a clear balance of power here that would justify betting on the favorites.
My prediction: FC Ilves to win with a handicap of +3.
