ATP Masters in Shanghai, Round of 16, Wednesday, 09.10.2024, 6:30 a.m.
It’s time for revenge! Jannik Sinner is of course one of the big favorites at the Shanghai Masters. In the round of 16, he will face an opponent who knocked him out on the spot a year ago.
The bookmakers no longer see this as a factor, as they once again see the world number 1 well ahead. I’ll tell you how I see the situation in my Sinner Shelton tip and also give you information on why I’m betting on Shelton winning the set.
First of all, Jannik Sinner took part in the Shanghai Masters and was knocked out in the round of 16. That’s it for the history of the current tournament, but of course it’s worth taking a closer look at this fact.
The tournament in far-off Asia has not taken place for a few years due to Corona, so it’s not surprising that this is only Sinner’s first appearance. And what about the result, the exit in the round of the last 16?
First a victory in two sets, then one in three, that’s how the matches went before he lost in three sets in the round of 16. Why am I noting this in such detail? Quite simply because it could go exactly the same way in 2024!
Sinner started with a 6-1, 6-4 win over Taro Daniel, then faced Tomas Martin Etcheverry. It was much closer, with the favorite prevailing 6-7, 6-4, 6-2, at least becoming more stable from serve to serve.
Sinner only converted four of 13 break chances, so he could have easily wrapped up the match faster. So will he now suffer a three-set defeat like in 2023 in Shanghai? In any case, the opponent would be the same!
The Italian lost to Ben Shelton back then with 6-2, 3-6, 6-7. It was the first defeat in the first direct duel, followed by three wins for the favorite, two of them this year.
All three were decided without problems, but at the same time they all had a tiebreak to offer. A duel between Sinner and Shelton, therefore, cannot end without at least one set being really close.
Sinner has already won everything this year, of course, and Shelton knows that. So it’s no wonder that the world number 1 is the clear favorite for the fifth duel.
The odds average 1.15 to 5.10, and even a 2-0 victory just scrapes the 1.50 mark at Betano. Ben Shelton will certainly not be bothered by the fact that he is the underdog going into this match.
The American lost in the quarterfinals last year, right after beating Sinner, to Sebastian Korda, who was also making his first Shanghai Masters of his career.
Since he is one of the top-seeded players, like Sinner, Shelton has already played two matches. He kicked off with a 6-3, 7-5 win over Denis Shapovalov, followed by a 6-3, 6-4 win over Roberto Carballes Baena.
He won a whopping 91% of the points on his first serve in the second round, and didn’t give up a single chance to break. How many times did Shapovalov have the opportunity? Not at all!
So far, his service has been the great strength of the man who turns 22 on the day of his clash with Jannik Sinner. Most recently, he achieved three consecutive victories in Cincinnati, before losing to Alexander Zverev.
At the US Open, it was Frances Tiafoe who knocked him out of the tournament in round 3 in five sets. Basically, Shelton can keep up with any opponent, but too often he misses out on being able to really beat the “giants”.
My Sinner Shelton Tip
For Jannik Sinner, it should still rain some titles towards the end of the season, not that he has already collected quite a few this year! His problems in round 2 were quite surprising.
Sinner knows, of course, that Ben Shelton is anything but an easy opponent. And since the direct duels were not exactly clear, at least some sets were not, I advise you to place the following bet:
Shelton wins a set.
