Championship, Tuesday, 16.04.2024
Sometimes a single win can cause an experienced sports betting fan to suddenly no longer favor the team in question in the following league game!
A classic case of this, which I will explain to you in detail, concerns my present Southampton Preston betting tip. Especially since I can’t understand why almost all soccer betting providers are treating the visitors as such a blatant underdog
We are approaching – as the Americans would say – the end of the “regular season”. Four teams from third to sixth place will then face each other in the championship playoffs.
Southampton will certainly be in the mix! Victories over Coventry (2:1) and Watford (3:2) last weekend mean they are almost certain to finish fourth in the final table for the 2023/24 season.
But precisely because the Saints have won two games in a row, I don’t see them winning the upcoming game in terms of the standings
The end of the season is approaching and with a six-point gap to Leeds and a nine-point lead over West Brom (who have also played two games more), the promotion hopefuls could take a step back from now on and focus primarily on the play-offs.
At least under these circumstances, the mini win odds against Preston North End of around 1.35, which the user-friendly Interwetten app is currently trying to offer us, are not justified.
In my opinion, this offer should be avoided for several reasons
Southampton beat Watford at the weekend – as already mentioned. But the winning goal to make it 3-2 only came in the 99th minute of the game – and that against a club that is far lower in the table than Preston North End.
Admittedly, the season is as good as over for the “Invincibles”, as their 63 points will probably not allow them to regain contact with Norwich City.
But if they win against Southampton on Tuesday, the gap to sixth place would only be five points and then something could actually still go Preston’s way
Statistically speaking, one should be very careful about favoring the “Saints” on Tuesday anyway.
Of their last ten league games together against their upcoming opponents, they have only managed to hold their own twice (5 draws, 3 defeats).
What’s more, in four of their last five encounters against Preston Noth End – including the first-round match (2-2) – the promotion contenders have always conceded at least two goals.
In addition, Preston North End have visited St. Mary’s Stadium four times since the turn of the millennium, but have only lost once (1 win, 2 draws).
Consequently, I find it extremely difficult not to see the draw and away win odds of 5.00 and 7.75 respectively from the various bookmakers as excellent offers.
Even a “double chance X2” bet that covers both options promises a relatively high payout, which currently corresponds to three times the stake.
For sports betting fans who like to rely on statistical anomalies and know how to use a good sports betting app, I have a more sophisticated Southampton Preston North End tip – namely: Preston don’t score in half time one.
Bizarrely, the Invincibles have scored each of their eight Championship away goals in 2024 in the first half.
After the break, on the other hand, they managed just 22 shots in total, or 2.8 per game (all without scoring).
Conclusion: The upcoming match between Southampton and Preston promises to be a close one.
Preston already proved to be an unruly opponent in the first half of the season and could cause problems again.
In addition, the Saints are probably overrated on the betting markets, which shows that expectations may be too high.
The game will therefore present a potentially too tricky task for Southampton FC as they face a stubborn opponent who could challenge the favorites.
My Southampton Preston tip: Double chance X2nd
