Spain – Bulgaria Tip World Cup Qualifier, Group E, Matchday 8, 10/14/2025 at 8:45 p.m.
On Matchday 8 of the World Cup qualifiers, Spain and Bulgaria will face off in a classic “David vs. Goliath” duel. While the Iberians have marched flawlessly through Group E so far, Bulgaria has zero points after three games.
In my Spain Bulgaria tip, I don’t expect any surprises. The Iberians are the clear favorites going into the match and should not give the underdogs a chance in the end.
My bet on “Spain to win with a -3 handicap” at odds of around 1.60 at Betano accurately reflects the balance of power and, in my opinion, is the best choice for this uneven matchup.
Spain vs. Bulgaria AI predictions:
AI is also indispensable in World Cup qualifying. Accordingly, you are now being served a Spain vs. Bulgaria AI prediction that offers you three betting alternatives.
First, the digital brain goes for a goal bet. However, “over 4.5 goals” at odds of around 1.85 in the Oddset app is a risky bet. Assuming that Bulgaria will not score, Spain will have to score at least five goals on their own.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Spain win | Draw |
Bulgaria win |
| 97.1% |
2.3% |
0.6% |
The “Bulgaria to score” option is more spectacular. At odds of 3.70, this appears at first glance to be a risky bet. Statistically speaking, it is no coincidence that Bulgaria is on shaky ground. The Bulgarians have lost three of their last four games to nil.
Since the Spanish have not conceded a single goal in the qualifiers so far, you should think carefully about this selection.
The tip “More goals in the second half” at odds of around 1.90 at Bet365 Sportsbook makes sense. After all, it is to be expected that Bulgaria’s strength will wane from the 60th minute onwards at the latest and that Spain will find it easier to create scoring chances.
However, you should keep in mind that the Bulgarians were overwhelmed from the start in the first leg. All three Spanish goals were scored in the first half.
What you need to consider when betting on Spain vs. Bulgaria
- Spain’s most recent home game against Georgia—a team that Bulgaria clearly defeated 3-0 in September—impressively demonstrated the Iberians’ defensive strength: Georgia managed only one shot (0.01 xG) and did not have a single touch in the Spanish penalty area.
- Bulgaria, on the other hand, has never scored more than one goal in its last eleven competitive games on the international stage. Our AI model calculates an expected goal value of only 0.34 xG for the Bulgarians in this game.
- In the last direct duel in Sofia last September – when Bulgaria only managed 0.10 xG – Spain started the game with an Asian handicap of -3.0. Anyone who bet on Spain with this handicap (0:3) got their stake back in full in this market.
- Pedro Porro, who created six big chances against Georgia, delivered an outstanding performance from the right side. Both Porro (11) and Pedri (16) recorded double-digit figures for passes into the final third – a clear sign that this duo is likely to pose the main threat to Bulgaria’s defense.
