European Football Championship, Tuesday, 09.07.2024 at 21:00
Phew, guys. I really have a lot up my sleeve this time. La Furia Roja, Equipe Tricolore, a few words on the DFB-Elf, Knight Rider. Everything is included in my Spain France prediction!
And of course, in my prediction for the 1st semi-final of EURO 2024, I will focus on lucrative betting opportunities that you can consider for your personal betting tip.
My main tip “Double chance 1X & Under 3.5 goals” (1.76 @NEObet) is of course just the tip of the iceberg. Overall, the Spain France odds invite you to take a close look at the statistics available for the match.
What sounds like an off-the-peg European Championship semi-final actually has one or two special notes to offer that need to be taken into account for a suitable Spain France prediction. The French in particular come into focus here.
In addition to the (former) euphoria surrounding the DFB team, the constant criticism of the Three Lions and the bitter fact that even Ralf Rangnick was unable to exorcise the Austrian national team’s penchant for tragedy, the way in which France sneaked into the semi-finals has gone almost unnoticed
One thing up front: the Euro betting providers see “La Grande Nation” as the underdog against Spain.
However, whether the French performance at the European Championship is accurately reflected in the general odds situation is one of the questions to be answered in the following sections of my Spain France betting tip. Spain’s success against the European Championship hosts must also be assessed.
There is no question that the Iberians left the more tactically mature impression in the quarter-finals compared to Germany.
If Florian Wirtz had not briefly confused the DFB team with his last-minute Leverkusen team, a Spanish victory in regular time would have been possible
However, Spain’s habit of “keeping their opponents alive” after taking a 1-0 lead could also prove problematic in the semi-final against France.
This is also one of the main reasons why I included the “double chance” protection and moved away from a simple bet on a Spanish victory.
After all, a scenario in which the three-time European champions have 65% possession against France but end up having to go into extra time – for reasons – is not entirely far-fetched.
To start with, however, I would like to take a look at the classic 1×2 Spain France odds. Because even here there is greater value betting potential:
The Spain – France prediction from the bookmakers
La Roja is the favorite according to the Spain France odds. I see. But the fact is that Oddset and Co. are not so sure of themselves after all. The odds for an Iberian success climb to 2.70, which I consider to be an excellent offer.
Are you braver than me? Then there’s basically no way around a bet on Germany to win. However, the other two three-way betting options should be treated with caution.
The draw at around 3.00 is simply too low for me. The risk control is not right for me here.
And I’m not even considering a French win (after 90 minutes). The way I see it, the Equipe Tricolore will need a maximum portion of luck (and a Coke) on Tuesday to defeat the Iberians in regular time and grab the European Championship title
KI prediction Spain vs France: ChatGPT
bets on it
“He’s coming – Knight Rider. One car, one computer, one man.” Now, I’m not as photogenic as David Hasselhoff was in the 80s, nor do I think ChatGPT has wheels or got himself a light strip from a Cylon.
Nevertheless, we also make a pretty good team. ChatGPT provides a Spain France AI forecast and I rank it for you. The foundation for – uhh – tips and bets is ready.
This time, though, I really wonder if the old tin pear has had a bit too much of the kerosene. First of all, the AI recommends a 2:1 win for the French at odds of 12.0.
Who was only looking at the odds? Two French goals against Spain are almost utopian in view of the Equipe Tricolore’s previous performances. I really can’t recommend this tip to you
The high-risk betting tip is quite random. Here ChatGPT comes around the corner with the bet “Griezmann scores the last goal of the game”. My question here: Why should he?
The Atletico star has yet to score a goal in the tournament and is one of the disappointments of the European Championship. In my opinion, the odds of 10.5 do not outweigh the betting risk.
The AI describes the bet “Both teams to score” as a low-risk Spain France bet. And here, too, the actual potential of both teams is assessed rather than their current form.
So perhaps ChatGPT should watch more of the European Championship than immerse itself in plans to take over the world
Spain vs France odds: Where are the highest Spain/France odds?
And then we’ve already arrived at the boosts. I’m going to take the liberty of leaving out an awkward pun on the subject of “turbo boosts”. Let’s get straight to the point.
NEObet is offering a boosted value for the bet “France win & both teams score”. The odds are 7.70 and are the epitome of the anti-cyclical Spain France tip.
You don’t give a damn about the statistics and the tournament so far? Then this risk bet is the one for you.
The “Kylian Mbappé scores at least two goals” boost is in the same vein. The odds of 17.0 are of course tempting given the quality of the star attacker.
However, the scenario “Lamine Yamal scores the first goal of the match”, which you can bet on at increased odds of 10.0 at Bet365, is quite a bit more likely
Analysis: Spain vs France
Let’s look at the facts. Spain finished the European Championship group stage with nine points and without conceding a goal. They made short work of Georgia in the round of 16 (4:1) and ultimately deservedly eliminated hosts Germany in the quarter-finals (2:1 n. V.).
You could be forgiven for thinking that the Iberians are in the semi-finals of EURO 2024 for a good reason and that they have been the top contenders for the title in the EURO betting, and not just since today.
The fact that Robin Le Normand and Dani Carvajal will be suspended against France and Pedri has to miss out through injury is of course a weakening factor. However, the Spanish squad is wide enough to absorb this without any major loss of quality.
It was no coincidence that Dani Olmo and Mikel Merino scored the two goals against Germany as substitutes. If Olmo also scores against the French, there are great Spain Franrekich odds of 4.75 to dust off.
In general, however, I don’t expect the Iberians to score. La Furia Roja only scored one goal in regulation time against Italy, Albania and Germany.
If they stay below the 1.5-goal mark against France, the bookmakers will serve you odds of around 1.45.
A question for the round: Which team at Euro 2024 doesn’t care about pretty play and “celebrates” calculated, hard-hitting results soccer?
Greece? – Is not taking part! Italy? – Already eliminated! Zarkonia? – doesn’t exist. The answer is: France. Yes, France.
The Equipe Tricolore once again exercised noble restraint in their victory against Portugal (5:3 in a penalty shoot-out) and made themselves comfortable with 40% possession.
What is downright irritating is that the attack around Mbappé, Griezmann, Kolo Muani and Dembelé scored just three goals in the entire tournament
And it gets even better (or worse): The goals against Austria and Belgium came as own goals. The goal against Poland was scored by Mbappé from the spot.
So here is a team in the semi-finals of a European Championship that has not scored a single goal of its own from play. That’s more funny than actually impressive. You really can’t get any more minimalist than that.
If the French remain without a goal of their own against Spain, you can look forward to odds of around 2.70.
Odds analysis
The French hyper-minimalism and the Spanish preference for a controlled offense are quite curious in the Spain France odds. The value for a game with over 2.5 goals rises to a well above-average 2.45.
The counter bet “Under 2.5 goals” only just manages to get above the 1.50 mark. The odds for the classic “Both teams to score” are distorted accordingly.
Here, the “No” is listed noticeably lower (around 1.80), while the “Yes” scratches the 2.00 mark. As already mentioned, ChatGPT doesn’t care.
But at least the big bookmakers expect a tough tactical battle between Spain and France – just like me – in which top-class scoring opportunities will remain a minor matter.
Fittingly: The 1:1 (odds at 5.90) and the 0:0 (6.50) are the spearheads of the odds for the result bets. Personally, I would like to include the 1:0 for the Spaniards in the draw, which is listed at a solid 7.00.
Spain vs France odds: Both know how EM works!
Some of you may not even remember: For decades, the Spanish national team was what the Belgians are said to be today.
Namely talented, but not successful enough in terms of expectations. It was not until the World Cup title in 2010 and the European Championship triumphs in 2008 and 2012 that the Iberians caught up with the really big soccer nations.
Together with the DFB team, they are even the record winners of the European Championship with three titles and could secure the sole crown with a victory in the 2024 final. On the other hand, France have won two European Championships.
Les Bleus also reached the final on home soil in 2016, but were beaten by Portugal (0:1 n. V.). So it’s fair to say that two European Championship heavyweights will step into the ring on Tuesday
Is a close match preprogrammed?
At first glance at the head-to-head comparison, the Spain-France prediction didn’t leave me scratching my head.
In fact, the statistics are quite balanced with 16 wins for Spain, seven draws and 13 victories for France.
However, since most of you are probably less interested in the fact that Spain beat France 4-0 in April 1922 thanks to goals from Travieso and Alcantara, the focus inevitably shifts to the more recent record
And the first thing that stands out is that there is little meaningful comparative data.
In fact, Spain and France have only met once since qualifying for the 2014 World Cup (1:1 and 1:0 for Spain).
In the final of the Nations League 2020/21, the two sides once again went toe-to-toe, with the French winning 2-1 in the end. Benzema and Mbappé countered Oyarzabal’s opening goal for Spain
The last time they met at a European Championship was in 2012. The Spaniards won 2:0 in the quarter-finals.
This was also Spain’s first success against the French at a European Championship. Les Bleus also have two wins (1984 and 2000) and a draw (1996) to their name.
Strikingly, none of the four European Championship matches between the two teams to date have produced more than three goals. My “Under 3.5 goals” addition in my main betting tip is therefore also statistically substantiated in this respect
My Spain France tip:
Well. Apart from the actual potential of the two squads, there is nothing to suggest that Spain and France will break the 3.5-goal barrier on Tuesday.
The Spaniards are obsessed with controlling the game. The French want to claw their way to the European Championship title.
Accordingly, I assume that we can expect a very tough semi-final in which tactics fans will get their money’s worth, but the general event audience will be staring blankly into the tube.
Apart from that, the Spaniards have clearly made the better impression so far at EURO 2024 and are quite rightly the favorites going into the match.
For the Spain France betting tip, however, that doesn’t rule out the possibility that the Grande Nation will curiously wall themselves off in the penalty shootout to triumph in the end.
That’s why I’m backing myself with the following Spain France prediction: The Iberians will not lose (after 90 minutes) and less than four goals will be scored in total.
