Europa League, Qualification, 1st Round, First Leg, Thursday, 10.07.2025 at 20:15
The geographical digressions at the start of each new season are back – or, what I actually want to say: Let’s get into the first qualifying round of the Europa League! Before the group stage begins in the fall, there is a lot of screening to be done.
Admittedly, an analysis this early in the season is not exactly a rewarding task. However, in my Spartak Trnava Häcken tip, I have found a team from Sweden that is already in good form.
Will this prove helpful? In any case, I will now provide you with all the facts that, in my opinion, speak in favor of betting on under 2.5 goals.
The Europa League qualifiers are open to everyone – even clubs that we don’t see in the main rounds of international competitions! So let’s take a look at the clubs we’re dealing with.
First up is Spartak Trnava, at home in Slovakia. Last season, the team finished third in their domestic league, which qualifies them for the qualifiers.
The total market value of the squad is in single digits, which quickly shows that we don’t have any superstars to offer. Last season, Spartak took part in the Conference League qualifiers, but were knocked out in the third round by Wisla Krakow.
It was a match for the history books, as the Slovaks lost 12-15 on penalties, a result you don’t see every day (first leg result: 3-1).
The 2025/26 season in Slovakia begins at the end of July, so the team can’t really be in rhythm yet. To be honest, I can’t really glean much from the recent friendly matches.
4-1 against Zlate Moravce, 1-3 against MFK Karvina, 0-1 against Boruc and 0-1 against Petrolul? In any case, the common thread running through the last three games is that there are problems in attack.
How did the international phases go in previous years? Have we ever seen Spartak Trnava in a group stage before? In 2023/24, as some of you may remember, they actually made it that far.
In the Conference League, they were knocked out early by Fenerbahce, Nordsjaelland, and Ludogorets Rasgrad. A few years earlier, in 2018/19, the club also made it to the main competition in the Europa League – with the same result.
But perhaps it’s a good omen that the team has never been eliminated in the first qualifying round of the Europa League? In any case, they must use their home advantage to go into the second leg in a stronger position.
I count six matches against clubs from Sweden in the history books, although none of them were against Häcken. The Slovakian record: six wins – if that doesn’t give them momentum!
The bookmakers, who also offer a strong sports betting bonus, are not giving away their cards as to who they see coming out on top on Thursday – the odds are averaging 2.50 to 2.60.
But that also means that Spartak may have a slight advantage in the first leg, but their opponents are favored to advance. The odds currently available are 2.30 to 1.55.
Häcken certainly has the advantage that the new season is already in full swing in Sweden. Five wins from 14 games – now you can decide for yourself how big an advantage that actually is.
So the Swedes are still struggling, and I certainly wouldn’t call them a top team. But maybe some of you Bundesliga fans remember: it was a good year ago that Häcken faced off against 1. FC Heidenheim.
In the play-offs for the Conference League main round, the Swabians won both games. Has Häcken ever competed in international competition before?
Yes, in the 2023/24 season. Häcken tried their best in the group stage, but were unable to make much of an impact against Leverkusen, Molde, and Qarabag and were eliminated.
It was their only notable international outing, so I certainly can’t say it was a great experience.
Häcken or Spartak Trnava, who will get off to the better start in the Europa League qualifiers? The bookmakers see the Swedish club as having a slight advantage, but not in the first leg.
Here, we expect a close contest between two evenly matched sides – and I can only agree with that assessment. Häcken is already in the rhythm of the season, but the results are not exactly positive.
The bottom line is that I expect both teams to struggle relatively in attack and that we will see a very competitive game. That means my prediction is:
We’ll see a maximum of two goals!
