Ligue 1, Friday, 13.09.2024 at 20:45
No one should be surprised by my St. Etienne Lille betting tip, even if the odds in the best sports betting apps are pleasingly high.
St. Etienne are the weakest team in French Ligue 1 so far. The home side are bottom of the table with no points and are the only team still WITHOUT a goal of their own.
Based on this, I placed my St. Etienne Lille bet at NEObet on “St. Etienne will NOT score a goal” and am delighted with the odds of 2.66.
All three promoted teams are in the bottom six of French Ligue 1. While Auxerre are still above the bottom line, Angers and St. Etienne have no points after three matchdays.
For this reason alone, a NEObet free bet on a “Lille win” would be appropriate, which you can get for odds of around and over 1.90.
St. Etienne have not won any of their previous seven games against Lille and, as expected, are the clear underdogs in their own stadium with odds of up to 4.33 to win.
However, the current series of this pairing speaks against a three-pointer for the visitors. Most recently, the two opponents have shared the points in four consecutive matches
St. Etienne have failed to make the transition to first-class soccer in France.
The newly promoted side were consistently outclassed in the first three matchdays. The 1-0 defeat against Monaco was the best game, after which Les Verts lost 2-0 to Le Havre and then even 4-0 at Brest.
In three league games, the home side scored no more than 1.7 expected goals – the lowest figure in the French top flight.
Hardly any of their league rivals entered the opposition penalty area less often and nobody actually made fewer contacts with the ball there (40)!
Lille’s recent results need to be put into context in order to recognize the value in my St. Etienne Lille betting tip.
League leaders PSG visited the Great Danes on matchday three and took three points with an unchallenged 3-1 win. By the end, the Parisians had created 2.60 goals worth of chances.
However, Lille only conceded 3.20 expected goals in total, the majority of which obviously came against PSG
Lille won their other two league games without conceding a goal. The 2-0 win against Stade Reims was followed by a 2-0 victory against Angers, another promoted team with no points.
Bruno Genesio’s basic defensive formation suits the existing players perfectly, who he prefers to send out onto the pitch in a 3-4-3.
At 32 years of age, Aissa Mandi provides the necessary experience alongside the two athletic youngsters Bafode Diakite (23) and Allesandro (25).
So far, only nine shots have been saved by Lucas Chevalier, who was one of the five best goalkeepers in French soccer last season with 4.5 goals saved.
St. Etienne had fewer shots on target in the first three rounds than any of their other league rivals (9).
These goals were also born out of necessity and produced the lowest xG value per shot (0.05 xG per shot).
The closest threat came from their own set pieces (0.65 xG), but Lille are the best defensive team in Ligue 1 (0.00 xG).
St. Etienne are overwhelmed after their promotion to Ligue 1 and hardly create any offensive moments in a match.
Lille, on the other hand, are once again one of the best backlines in French soccer and should be able to keep a clean sheet against Les Verts away from home.
My St. Etienne Lille betting tip is therefore: St. Etienne will NOT score
