Conference League qualifier, third round, first leg, Wednesday, 07.08.2024 at 16:34
I’m not going to beat around the bush in my St. Gallen Wroclaw betting tip: In my opinion, the big bookmakers have really miscalculated for the first leg of the third round of the Conference League qualifiers.
In fact, I see the Swiss in the much more pronounced role of favorites and no realistic chance that the Poles will take anything countable from St. Gallen.
Accordingly, I’m also targeting a home win, which I’m giving an additional odds boost by adding “Under 3.5 goals”.
De facto, my main tip covers the bets 1:0, 2:0, 2:1 and 3:0 with St. Gallen Wroclaw odds of 2.75. An excellent deal, in my opinion – even without the Betano bonus.
In addition, I will of course serve you further betting alternatives that result from the analysis of the available statistics:
At this point, I would like to put the different form curves on the table in front of you.
While St. Gallen have made a successful start to the season and were able to dispatch top team Young Boys Bern 4-0 on the second matchday of the Swiss Super League, Slask have performed like a relegation candidate in Poland up to this point.
In my St. Gallen Wroclaw prediction, I can’t help but give the Swiss a clear advantage, even if there is one big argument in favor of the Poles. More on that below
The betting operators’ forecast?
Just under 1.70? just under 1.70! The simple 1×2 odds for a home win for FC St. Gallen against Slask Wroclaw are actually just under 1.70.
So if you’re not interested in combination bets or creative individual tips, you can confidently find your lucrative luck with a bet on a home win.
At the same time, the 3.80 odds for a Breslau win in Switzerland are far too low in my opinion. I would therefore generally steer clear of this.
The same applies to the draw, which is listed at a clearly below-average 3.50.
Analysis: St. Gallen vs Wroclaw
After the (strange) 0:1 defeat in the league opener against Winterthur, FC St. Gallen shook themselves up and have since notched up four wins in a row.
In addition to the aforementioned 4-0 win against Bern and the most recent victory against Lausanne, there were two wins in the second round of the Conference League qualifiers against Tobyl Qostanai.
After the 4:1 win in the first leg, they could even afford to put their feet up in the second leg (1:0). In general, St. Gallen is one of the top teams in Switzerland.
Last season, they finished fifth in the table and had the third-best offense in the Super League with 60 goals scored. If FCSG score at least two goals against Wroclaw, odds of around 1.80 are due
Slask Wroclaw can already be happy to be in the third qualifying round of the Conference League.
After all, they were already on the brink of elimination in the previous round after losing the first leg 1-0 in Riga. In the end, a 3:1 home win in the second leg helped the Poles to a clash with St. Gallen.
That win against Riga was also their first success of the new season. In fact, they have only won one of their last five games.
In the league, they are only in 14th place after two match days, making them one of the biggest disappointments. However, Slask still have an ace up their sleeve ahead of the clash with St. Gallen.
The upcoming encounter with Radomiak Radom has been postponed. As a result, the team from Wrocław can prepare specifically for the away game in Switzerland
Quota analysis
A look at the goal odds from top betting providers such as Merkur Bets Germany does not initially reveal any anomalies. A match with over 2.5 goals is estimated at average odds of around 1.75.
The counter bet “Under 2.5 goals” barely makes it over the 2.00 mark. This is not surprising. Slask Wroclaw have not been conspicuous for their spectacle in the recent past.
In seven of their last eight games, the bet “Under 2.5 goals” would have led to success.
With odds of just 1.60, I don’t see the classic “Both teams to score” as a safe bet.
A simple 0:1 defeat for Poland against St. Gallen is an extremely realistic scenario in my view. The odds for this are 8.25.
If you generally expect FCSG to put in a dominant performance, you can also consider the bet “St. Gallen lead at half-time”. With odds of 2.45, this is a very good bet
St. Gallen are a force at home!
If we take a look at the respective home and away statistics, the first thing that becomes clear is that St. Gallen really enjoy playing at home.
In the previous season, they were the second-best home team in Switzerland behind champions Young Boys Bern. They also won their first two home games of the new season.
Slask, on the other hand, have already lost in Riga and at Piast Gliwice this season. In both cases, they failed to score a goal. If Wroclaw also fails to score at FCSG, the odds climb to a strong 2.80.
European Cup is when other teams play!
A direct comparison reveals a big black hole. In fact, FC St. Gallen and Slask Wroclaw are meeting for the first time ever.
I was somewhat surprised to discover that this was the first time that St. Gallen had even played a competitive match against a Polish team.
The team from Wroclaw have only met one other team from Switzerland so far
In the 1982/83 season, they faced Servette Geneva in the UEFA Cup. In the 2nd round, however, they ultimately had no real chance (0:2, 1:5).
In general, Slask’s success on the European stage was limited.
Their greatest success came in the 1976/77 season, when they reached the quarter-finals of the European Cup Winners’ Cup. There they were defeated by SSC Napoli (0:0, 0:2)
In this century, however, the Poles have not yet managed to qualify for a European Cup first round.
The truth is, of course, that FC St. Gallen are also not a regular in the European Cup.
The last time they were represented in the Europa League group stage was in the 2013/14 season. In the years that followed, they repeatedly failed in the various qualifying rounds.
My tip:
I think two points became clear in the course of my analysis.
On the one hand, FC St. Gallen are clearly favored in front of their home crowd and have an excellent chance of opening the door to the playoff round with a home win.
On the other hand, Slask Wroclaw quite rightly find themselves in the role of underdogs, although they are by no means a pushover.
So I expect the Poles to lose in Switzerland, but not to fall to the wayside.
My St. Gallen Wroclaw tip is therefore: The FCSG win and less than 3.5 goals are scored in total
