Bundesliga 20th matchday, Saturday, 01/02/2025 at 3:30 pm
While Augsburg has recently shone with fighting spirit, St. Pauli has impressed Bundesliga fans in recent weeks above all with its ironclad defense.
But the rather promising table position for both is deceptive: according to my Augsburg St. Pauli prediction, the team that loses here could slip into the relegation battle faster than expected.
So both teams will be going all out for at least a point. It should be an intense, evenly-matched encounter, where the small things could decide the outcome!
Historically, the Kiezkickers have had little success against the FCA away from home. All four competitive matches on Augsburg soil have been lost, including the 3-1 defeat in the first leg of this season, the first Bundesliga clash between the two teams.
But the Millerntor is also a tough place for the Fuggerstadt team: in the second division, St. Pauli managed to beat them twice and draw once.
But now the “Boys in Brown” face a serious test. If they want to stay in the top flight, they urgently need to get points against opponents of this caliber. Otherwise, the topic of avoiding relegation could come up again.
What do the betting providers think will happen?
The current St. Pauli Augsburg odds suggest a close game – a glance at your favorite sports betting app confirms that.
With 2.35 for a home win, the bookmakers see the neighborhood club as having a slight advantage, while a draw is valued at 3.15. For an Augsburg away win, there’s 3.30 – not a completely outlandish bet, but an outsider bet.
KI-Prognose St. Pauli vs Augsburg: That’s what ChatGPT tips
For maximum profits, ChatGPT suggests “St. Pauli win with handicap -1”. However, since this tip clearly contradicts my personal expectations, I find it difficult to show enthusiasm for it.
Fortunately, I asked ChatGPT to also suggest two predictions with significantly less risk as part of its Augsburg St. Pauli AI prediction, in the hope that I would be able to do more with these than with the aforementioned high-risk tip.
For a medium risk, the AI suggests “Over 2.5 goals”. This is an acceptable suggestion, especially since I myself am betting on a 2-1 win for the Fuggerstadt team. However, I expect more of a 0-0 and 1-1 than higher final results.
Finally, for a safe bet with little risk, ChatGPT recommends the prediction “St. Pauli win (draw money back)”. Here I clearly disagree. The low odds and the high draw potential make this tip unattractive for me.
It is therefore hardly worth entering here. If at all, then rather choose the option “double chance 1X”.
Analysis: St. Pauli vs Augsburg
Both clubs are pursuing similar goals this season: to escape the clutches of the relegation battle, with FCA even aiming for a slightly higher place at the bottom end of the European Cup zone.
Be that as it may, both sides managed to record a victory on matchdays 18 and 19.
Augsburg first beat Bremen 2-0 and then, a short time later, Heidenheim with a result that suited me perfectly.
Meanwhile, the neighborhood kickers were also able to beat Heidenheim (2-0) before they pushed Union Berlin (3-0) into the bottom of the table a week later – again without conceding a goal.
Both opponents would naturally like to avoid being in that position, but the loser of this game could well find themselves having to deal with this unwelcome topic again in the future.
Odds analysis
The 1:1 at odds of 6.20 and the 2:1 for the FCA at a proud 12.0 are both exciting result bets, depending on your risk appetite.
In particular, the 1:2 tip could ensure a decent payout if the Fuggerstadt team wins away from home – there is definitely value here.
For those who like it a bit safer, on the other hand, “Under 3.5 goals” is a very solid approach. The odds of 1.30 may seem low, but it is perfect as an addition to a multiple bet slip.
St. Pauli vs. Augsburg: A promoted team has rarely defended as well as this one!
St. Pauli’s defense is at an all-time high, which is why Augsburg will probably have great difficulty scoring more than one or two goals.
With seven clean sheets in 19 matches, the Kiezkicker are defensively better than any other promoted team since RB Leipzig in the 2016/17 season.
It’s crazy: overall, only Bayern have conceded fewer goals (16) than St. Pauli (21), who thus have the strongest defense of any promoted team in years. This will undoubtedly put Augsburg’s offensive efforts to a tough test.
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St. Pauli: This streak just has to end!
Actually, it almost sounds too perfect to be true, and that’s why data fans like me are skeptical about whether St. Pauli can actually maintain this winning streak.
After two Bundesliga wins in a row, both without conceding a goal, the club has already made history – something that has never happened before in its Bundesliga history. In addition, they are the only team not to have conceded a goal in the second half of the season.
But three clean sheets in a row? That would be a first for the Kiezkicker in the Bundesliga, and that’s exactly where the challenge lies.
A goal from a corner on Saturday is rather unlikely, though, as neither team excels in this department.
Augsburg surprised last week when both goals against Heidenheim were scored from corners, but in their previous 18 matches they had scored just once in this way.
St. Pauli, on the other hand, have not scored a single goal from one of the 73 corners they have taken in the Bundesliga so far in the 2024/25 season. So it seems unlikely that a set-piece goal will be scored.
Morgan Guilavogui is definitely in top form at the moment! He was directly involved in all three of St. Pauli’s goals in the game against Union Berlin – with two goals and one assist.
This makes him the third St. Pauli player this season to be involved in three goals in a single game, after Elias Saad and Johannes Eggestein.
His goal rate is around 3.50 on average at most football betting providers on Saturday.
However, since I only expect the Kiezkicker to score a maximum of one goal as a collective, I would refrain from doing so – unless you are more optimistic about the Kiezkicker’s chances of getting a home win against Augsburg.
My St. Pauli Augsburg Tip:
There is a lot at stake for both clubs, neither wants to lose the direct duel and find themselves in the relegation battle.
There is a great deal of respect for each other, which is why I expect a low-scoring encounter.
And even though the defense of the neighborhood kickers is phenomenally good, I tend to believe that Augsburg will not come away empty-handed.
My St. Pauli Augsburg betting tip: Double chance X2 & Under 3.5 goals.
