St. Pauli – Augsburg Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 3 on Sunday, 09/14/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
Ahead of Matchday 3 in the Bundesliga, the mood at FC St. Pauli could certainly be worse. After their derby victory against HSV, the Hamburg team are fifth in the table and can be pleased with a successful start to the season.
But the mood is also excellent at opponents Augsburg under Sandro Wagner. After their victory against Freiburg and narrow defeat against Bayern, they are on target.
So it’s no surprise that I’m expecting a lively duel in my St. Pauli vs. Augsburg prediction and am targeting the “Both teams to score” bet at odds of around 1.80 at NEO.bet.
St. Pauli’s performances so far have been a positive surprise. While the Kiez club had the worst offense in the league last season with just 28 goals, they have already scored five goals this season.
An alternative is the St. Pauli Augsburg prediction “St. Pauli over 1.5 goals,” especially since the odds of around 2.20 make an excellent impression.
And a 2-1 or 2-2 draw against an offensively minded Augsburg side seems by no means unrealistic, at least from today’s perspective.
St. Pauli – Augsburg prediction & bets
I expect an open game in which Augsburg will make a rather impetuous impression, while St. Pauli will appear more controlled but equally courageous. So goals should be on the cards either way.
I am therefore surprised that the “over 2.5 goals” market is valued at around 2.10 by betting provider Winamax. I’ll gladly take this well above-average value.
Equally interesting is the “draw at halftime” bet. In fact, despite all the offensive spirit, I expect a balanced game in which both St. Pauli and Augsburg will have numerous chances. If the teams are on equal footing at halftime, there are odds of around 2.00 to be had.
Also exciting: “Goal in both halves.” St. Pauli’s first two league games have already fulfilled this condition. Accordingly, I also find the odds of around 1.90 to be rather generous.
What you need to consider when betting on St. Pauli vs. Augsburg
- Since the start of last season, St. Pauli has conceded an average of only 1.22 goals per league game. Among the teams that have played in the Bundesliga in both seasons, only FC Bayern has conceded fewer goals.
- Augsburg, on the other hand, has conceded an average of 1.53 goals per game since the start of the season. In the current season, their opponents’ average xG value is 1.58 per game.
- In the 2024/25 season, St. Pauli saw more than 2.5 goals in only three of 17 home games.
- Since 2009, St. Pauli has hosted FC Augsburg four times. Last season marked the first Bundesliga duel at the Millerntor, which ended in a 1-1 draw. The hosts remain unbeaten: in 2010, they won 3-0, and the year before that, they drew 1-1 – both games took place in the 2nd Bundesliga.
- Augsburg goalkeeper Finn Dahmen is currently the keeper with the most goals prevented (2.8). He has already made ten saves – more than any other player in the league.
St. Pauli – Augsburg: AI tip & odds analysis
Our AI model doesn’t need to be asked twice and presents its very own St. Pauli Augsburg AI prediction. Let’s take a look at which tips are useful.
First of all, the AI puts forward a risky tip. At first glance, “Over 3.5 goals” seems very bold at odds of around 3.65. However, the truth is that St. Pauli and Augsburg have played a combined total of four league games so far, and the bet would have been successful in three of those games.
A great tip for safety fanatics, however, is the bet “Augsburg to score” at solid odds of around 1.45. FCA has scored in 13 of its last 14 games and is playing with great confidence under Sandro Wagner.
As a third tip, our AI assistant has its sights set on the result bet “2:1 for St. Pauli.” And I’m very happy with that too. At Bwin Mobile, the odds climb to around 9.25.
It’s not for nothing that Hamburg are going into the game as slight favorites and could well come out on top in front of their home crowd. Don’t forget: St. Pauli haven’t lost their last nine games.
The best odds for St. Pauli vs. Augsburg
Our in-house data model predicts an expected total xG value of 2.08 goals for the game between Augsburg and St. Pauli. The betting odds for St. Pauli vs. Augsburg reflect a similar assessment.
The Asian goal line of under/over 2.25 is the lowest offered by bookmakers on the third matchday of the Bundesliga.
In a league that saw an average of 3.13 goals per game in the 2024/25 season, the question arises: Why is the St. Pauli vs. Augsburg game rated so low? Well, St. Pauli saw more than 2.5 goals in only three of 17 home games last season.
In total, there were three or more goals in only ten games involving Pauli throughout the 2024/25 season. That equates to a hit rate of just 29% for this market. Aside from the goal bets, St. Pauli is the favorite going into the match.
The odds for St. Pauli vs. Augsburg see the hosts with a win rate of 2.15 to secure their second victory in their third game of the season. Augsburg starts with an Asian handicap of +0.25.
The +0.25 Asian handicap means that bets on Augsburg will be paid out half if the game ends in a draw, while an away win will yield the full winnings. Only in the event of a defeat would the stake be lost.
After the 2-3 defeat to Bayern on the second matchday, some bettors may still be inclined to bet on the visitors.
St. Pauli vs Augsburg Match Analysis:
Both teams are used to going into games as underdogs. Nevertheless, the home team seems to be in a better position to take the initiative and actively shape the game.
Last weekend, St. Pauli dominated against HSV. Although they were playing away, they finished the game with an xG value of 1.09 more than their opponents. Alexander Blessin’s team also had 52% possession.
Even though St. Pauli played offensively on the second matchday, high pressing is not one of their main strategies. In fact, Augsburg and St. Pauli were among the five teams with the most passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) last season – an indication of cautious pressing.
However, St. Pauli’s restraint in pressing has not hurt them defensively. Since the start of last season, they have conceded an average of only 1.22 goals per league game. Among the teams that have been in the top flight for both seasons, only FC Bayern have conceded fewer goals.
Augsburg, on the other hand, have conceded an average of 1.53 goals per game since the start of last season. In the current season, their opponents’ average xG value is 1.58 per game.
The visitors cannot rely on their defense, so they are likely to take a more courageous, offensive approach as the game progresses.
St. Pauli form check
St. Pauli has four points after two games – an excellent start to the season for a team that was expected to be in a relegation battle.
Alexander Blessin’s team goes into the coming weekend with a lot of confidence. Before the international break, they won the Hamburg derby away at HSV 2-0. They limited their local rivals to just five shots on goal, while managing 17 themselves.
The Kiezklub also showed great fighting spirit in their opening game against Dortmund. St. Pauli were trailing 3-1 until shortly before the end, but took advantage of a late red card against BVB and fought their way back to a 3-3 draw.
St. Pauli has struggled to keep possession so far, averaging only 43% possession per league game.
However, the results so far suggest that the team is better equipped to compete with the top teams this season. Blessin will be hoping his team continues this progress.
Augsburg form check
Sandro Wagner should be reasonably satisfied with his team’s start to the season. Before the international break, they fought a hard-fought battle with FC Bayern, which ultimately ended in a 2-3 defeat.
Augsburg also managed an impressive 3-1 win against Freiburg. However, the Fuggerstadt team only had 40% possession in that game and ended up with an expected goals (xG) deficit of 1.26 compared to their opponents.
The underlying data also suggests that Augsburg should have conceded more goals against Bayern, as Kompany’s team had a total of 4.24 expected goals (xG).
Wagner knows that his team needs to be more stable defensively – continued overperformance in the statistics is unlikely.
Kristijan Jakic has been an outstanding player in the Augsburg team so far. Wagner gives him the freedom to move around the field, and his creativity will be crucial in this game.
Jakic has already contributed one goal and one assist. In addition, the midfielder works tirelessly against the ball – he will be crucial to any success his team has.
