St. Pauli – Bremen Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 23 on Sunday, 22.02.2026 at 17:30 CET
Sports betting is not a science. Rather, sometimes you just have to trust your gut feeling, even if the facts say otherwise.
The games of the Kiezkicker saw the second fewest Bundesliga goals this season, while Bremen scored the third fewest goals in the league. Accordingly, according to their odds, the German betting providers obviously do not expect any offensive fireworks.
Nevertheless, I deliberately choose the option Over 2.5 goals at extremely attractive values of currently 2.28 for my St. Pauli Bremen tip.
Both clubs are currently below the bottom line, and in my experience, this precarious starting position alone usually favors an extremely entertaining course of play in exactly such cases.
We have taken the trouble to present you the best Bundesliga odds of all bookmakers for the current matchday in one fell swoop.
Furthermore, in the course of my St. Pauli Werde Bremen prediction, I also dealt with the direct comparison – and that should make all fans of the Kiezkicker among you shudder instantly!
Because: Of all the previous 19 Bundesliga duels against St. Pauli, the Werder team has only lost the first meeting – in August 1977.
St. Pauli – Werder Bremen Prediction & Betting
The Kiezkicker have not suffered a defeat at home for four Bundesliga matchdays and have successfully stood up to even stronger teams such as Stuttgart and Leipzig.
In the offer of Betano Sportwetten, I have therefore identified the selection 1st goal: St. Pauli (1st half) as a value pick. It is not a guaranteed scenario, but the rather high odds of 2.82 certainly justify this risk.
St. Pauli scores a goal in both halves at betting odds around 4.20, on the other hand, sounds a bit more adventurous, but the high payout is also a good reason for this betting project.
Especially since the “Boys in Browns”, who believe in themselves again, have already achieved exactly this feat in the last Bundesliga home game against a much stronger opponent like VfB Stuttgart.
What you need to know about St. Pauli vs. Werder Bremen betting
- Home run at the Millerntor: St. Pauli are unbeaten in four home games – the longest run of the current season – and showed a dominant offensive performance in the recent 2-1 win against Stuttgart with 15-7 shots.
- Werder’s away curse: Bremen have only won one away game in the entire season and score less than one goal per game on average away from home, but at least rescued a 2-2 draw in the basement duel in Heidenheim.
- Duel of the minimalists: With only 20 (St. Pauli) and 22 (Bremen) goals scored, two of the most harmless attacking lines in the league meet – only 1.
- New signing in focus: St. Pauli’s winter signing Taichi Hara, who moved from Japan to the Millerntor with the recommendation of 15 scorer points, is already considered the hottest candidate for a goal despite only two substitute appearances.
St. Pauli – Werder Bremen: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
You’ve already heard my opinion, now let’s take a look at the suggestions of our data model and the St. Pauli Bremen AI forecast it determined.
Let’s start with the 1X2 suggestion of a draw at odds of around 3.10. For almost the same win in the event of a three-pointer by the Kiezkicker, I would therefore prefer to bet on the home win.
According to the Bundesliga schedule, Bremen has already been winless for 12 games and also has to do without some important key players, which I will discuss in more detail in the form analysis.
In short: If the “Boys in Brown” were not impressed by their slap against Leverkusen, I trust them much more to win.
Last but not least, the 2:2 result bet suggested by our data model only further strengthens me in my own St. Pauli Bremen tip from the headline.
The odds of about 16.5 for exactly this result are astronomically high, but personally I would rather make a 2:1 bet on the Northern Lights – more realistic and still worthwhile!
By the way, if you want to be on the safe side with such precise bets, you should definitely use a free bet without a deposit so that you don’t have to dig into your own pocket on Sunday.
The best odds for St. Pauli vs. Werder Bremen
There is red alert in the basement of the table – and it is precisely this uncertainty that is reflected in the St. Pauli Bremen ratings. The bookmakers avoid any clear positioning and balance their assessment almost to the millimetre.
A home win for St. Pauli is endowed with 2.70. In this way, the markets signal respect for the backdrop at the Millerntor and the combative attitude of the Kiezkicker, but without attributing a decisive advantage to them.
An away win for SVW is also 2.70. The “Green-Whites” have identical chances of winning, which underlines the fragile starting position. Experience and transition play are recognized, but not overrated.
The draw ranks at 3.20. In view of the nervousness that often resonates in such relegation duels, a cautious division of points seems quite plausible.
The St. Pauli Bremen odds thus draw a scenario of maximum balance – a game that is likely to be decided less by brilliance and more by nerves of steel and error avoidance.
St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen Match Analysis:
If we look purely at the data, this game initially cries out for a tough number. St. Pauli acts extremely passively against the ball and allows the second most passes per defensive action in the league, which usually ensures long ball circulation of the opponent without many clear breakthroughs.
Bremen, on the other hand, averages 13.32 shots per game – the fifth-best value in the league – but the conversion of chances is a real problem. Only two teams are even more clearly below their xG value.
Especially away from home, the final precision in the final third is often missing, which is why much sounds like a tactical probing. Blessin should nevertheless be more courageous, because Bremen must show initiative in this constellation instead of just reacting.
And this is exactly where the psychological factor comes into play. Cellar duels rarely follow pure data logic, but develop their own dynamics. An early goal – no matter on which side – can break up the entire static, because both know how brutally important these points are.
St. Pauli will want to switch immediately after winning the ball, while Bremen is almost forced to build up further pressure due to their poor finishing. This opens up spaces, especially in the half-fields.
I therefore don’t expect a classic clean sheet, but a game that noticeably gains in intensity after a cautious opening phase. If someone takes the lead here, the thing tilts in a much more open direction than the bare numbers initially suggest.
St. Pauli Form Check
FC St. Pauli showed morale in their last home game and caused a small surprise with the 2-1 win against Stuttgart. They need exactly such a performance again now, because a win against Werder Bremen would push them out of the relegation zone.
The problem: Last weekend they lost 4-0 at Bayer Leverkusen, and in total they have only won one of their last eight Bundesliga games.
In terms of personnel, there are a few question marks. Conor Metcalfe is training again, but is not yet an option for the starting eleven. Mathias Pereira Lage should be fit in time after a small setback.
Eric Smith is back in full training and should be able to start, while Hauke Wahl is probably in the squad, but is more likely to come off the bench. Andreas Hountondji, Ricky-Jade Jones and David Nemeth will definitely be missing – not ideal conditions for such an important game.
Werder Bremen form check
As already mentioned, the Werder team has been winless for twelve long matchdays and has suffered eight defeats in this period.
Offensively, there are still massive problems, as Bremen have failed to score in seven of their last nine league games and have gone a total of ten games without scoring a goal of their own – the worst figure in the league this season.
Things are also extremely problematic away from home: Bremen have not won in their last nine Bundesliga games away from home, only three of a possible 27 points have been scored, and the team has also failed to score in the last four away games.
Even under new coach Daniel Thioune, the team could not stop the downward spiral and suffered an expected 3-0 defeat against Bayern last weekend, which only exacerbated their already precarious situation!
There is hardly any relaxation in terms of personnel: Leonardo Bittencourt and Abdoul-Karim Coulibaly are doubtful, but will definitely not be able to play from the start.
The situation is similar with Mitchell Weiser, who has only trained individually so far. In the long term, Maximilian Wober and Victor Boniface are still missing, which exacerbates the already weak squad depth and increases the pressure on the few players who are fit to play enormously.
Bremen will have to be creative in the design of the starting line-up on Sunday in order to be able to field at least one competitive team at the Millerntor.
