Bundesliga 24th matchday, Saturday, 01/03/2025 at 3:30 pm
Despite the thumping victory last week, Dortmund is still stuck in the middle of the table. And personally, I don’t believe in a miracle cure under Kovac, even if the success over the “Irons” has of course rightly caused a nationwide sensation.
The general performance curve of the black and yellow team is pointing downwards rather than upwards. Is a single good performance enough to dispel all doubts and inaugurate the Tipwin Bonus with an away win over BVB full of confidence? Not in my opinion!
However, the Kiezkicker are under pressure themselves, because slipping below the line threatens with every further defeat.
An upset win against Borussia could give them an enormous boost in the relegation battle. Will they succeed or will BVB find their way back to winning ways? My St. Pauli Borussia Dortmund betting tip has the answer!
At the legendary Millerntor, the neighborhood kickers could achieve what they were denied in their last duel with BVB in the first half of the season: a victory.
St. Pauli’s last home win against Borussia Dortmund came in January 2022, when they beat them 2-1 in the DFB Cup round of 16. This has given my St. Pauli Borussia Dortmund prediction a real boost, at least initially!
Apart from that, the statistical signs are not exactly favorable – after all, it was their only victory in their last 13 competitive games against BVB.
The forecast of the bookmakers?
The betting providers with PayPal see Borussia Dortmund as the favorites at the Millerntor. This is clearly reflected in the odds of around 1.88 for an away win for Borussia Dortmund.
A home win for the Kiezkicker, on the other hand, is rated at an average of 3.90, while a draw would yield odds of 3.70.
AI prediction St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund: That’s what ChatGPT tips
The St. Pauli Borussia Dortmund AI prediction a week before the start of the Champions League round of 16 delivers some exciting betting options that we should take a closer look at.
For example, “St. Pauli to win” is suggested for the high risk – and without much ado!
I really like this, as it is based on my own tip, so to speak. If BVB are not wide awake from the start, as they were not against Union, the neighborhood kickers could actually catch them off guard.
At medium risk, “Under 2.5 goals” is available at odds of 1.80. I also like this very much, as the home side have not exceeded this mark in four Bundesliga games in a row.
Finally, ChatGPT recommends “Both teams score” for low-risk bets. I’m skeptical about this, as I can only imagine a 1-1 or 2-1 that meets this condition.
However, the odds are not particularly high, and the game could just as easily end 0-0 or 1-0 for St. Pauli.
Analysis: St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund go into the clash against St. Pauli with mixed feelings. Serhou Guirassy has established himself as a key player, but his performance fluctuates between the Bundesliga and Champions League.
He scored four goals in the most recent 6-0 win, which raises hopes. Pascal Groß was also decisive as an assist provider. The coach and fans hope that Guirassy will now also score more consistently in the league to stabilize Dortmund’s form.
Club boss Watzke was relieved, but the team has to prove that it can deliver the same performance against St. Pauli. A win would be important to boost self-confidence for the upcoming tasks and to continue to steer the inconsistent season in the right direction.
And that brings us to the problem that I have had with BVB since the first matchday: consistency!
“Help, we’re sinking” – that’s how the current form of the league’s buccaneers could be summarized. Although there is still a cushion between them and the relegation zone, it is dwindling from match day to match day.
The offense, which only scored one goal in the whole of February – in the 1-1 draw against Augsburg – is a particular source of displeasure.
In the subsequent defeats against RB Leipzig (0-2), Freiburg (0-1) and most recently Mainz (0-2), the St. Pauli offensive department couldn’t come up with anything at all!
The fact is: the coach urgently needs to come up with something from now on!
Odds analysis
“Next goal in 1st half: St. Pauli” at odds of 3.40 in the Betano app is an interesting choice. Even though the Kiezkicker’s offense has been a bit weak lately, I expect them to start the first half with a lot of determination and purpose.
They could well score the first goal, especially if they time their start well.
Meanwhile, my personal betting tip for this game is a 1-1 draw at odds of 7.40 – a St. Pauli Borussia Dortmund tip that carries a certain risk but is definitely worth a try given the starting position.
St. Pauli vs. Dortmund: Millerntor? Neither an advantage nor a disadvantage!
Some can’t seem to score at home, and others always get an uncomfortable feeling whenever they have to get on the team bus.
Only 1. FC Heidenheim (7) have picked up fewer points in their own stadium than FC St. Pauli (9) in this Bundesliga season. What’s more, no team scored fewer home goals than the Kiezkicker (7), who also went without scoring in eight of their 11 home games.
Borussia Dortmund, on the other hand, only managed eight points away from home – only Kiel and Bochum did even worse away from home in 2024/25 (3 points each).
Serhou Guirassy as strong as St. Pauli collectively!
Do you want to hear a crazy statistic that could displease or even embarrass every fan of the Kiezkicker?
Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy scored four goals in a single game for the first time in his professional career last week against Union Berlin.
But here’s the thing: the BVB striker has now scored as many goals in the 2024/25 season as the entire St. Pauli squad (23 in 25 games) – and he already scored against the Kiezkicker in the first half of the season.
The “Boys in Brown” have reached an obvious low point in what has been a fairly successful season so far, there’s no denying that – even if I expect a strong performance on Saturday.
The numbers speak for themselves: FC St. Pauli has lost three Bundesliga games in a row for the first time since the season began and has not scored in three consecutive games since March 2011.
The reason why I liked the St. Pauli Borussia Dortmund AI prediction of a game with fewer than 2.5 goals so much is as follows:
In games involving FC St. Pauli this Bundesliga season, there were on average only 1.96 goals (18 scored, 27 conceded) – that is the lowest average ever measured for a team in an entire season.
A Betano promo code in conjunction with an under-2.5-goals bet could therefore be worthwhile, but the entrance fee for this game is probably not, due to the low entertainment value!
My St. Pauli Borussia Dortmund Tip:
A good performance alone is not enough to convince me that Dortmund is back on track. St. Pauli, on the other hand, will start the game at the Millerntor with full energy, hoping to break the spell and finally score more goals again.
In my opinion, the Kiezkicker could well prove to be an unpleasant opponent on Saturday, challenging the favorites.
My tip: Double chance 1X
