Bundesliga match day 22, Saturday, 15/02/2025 at 3:30 pm
Defensively top, offensively flop – may this combination be enough to remain part of our 1st Bundesliga tips in the coming season! Many fingers are crossed for FC St. Pauli, especially their own fans, who of course want nothing more than to avoid relegation.
On Saturday, the Millerntor will once again be calling, where they have recently improved their performance. So, can I sound out the role of the favorite in my St. Pauli Freiburg betting tip? After all, the guests are not that stable either!
In my opinion, one thing is certain: a really interesting, probably close duel awaits us. The home side are not exactly known for their attacking efforts, but they also know that apart from FC Bayern, no one defends better.
The mostly harmless attack, as they will know in Freiburg, surprisingly scored three goals for the sports club in the first half of the season, which can certainly be seen as a positive omen on the Elbe.
So when the kick-off is given at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday, I don’t expect both teams to play forward all the time. Therefore, I opt for the “Under 2.5 goals” bet and take advantage of the odds of 1.67 that Interwetten is offering. And watch out: Before reading my analysis, it’s best to grab the top freebet here!
The betting providers’ prediction?
If you want to place a 1×2 bet, you will quickly notice that our betting providers do not have clear odds this time! The home win is priced at an average of 2.60, which is not bad for a promoted team.
After all, they are welcoming an opponent that is fighting for a place in Europe. Those of you who see Freiburg as the frontrunners will be rewarded with odds of 2.85 – the SCF would love to play, more on that later, but not at Millerntor in the past!
Only three times, not really often, have both teams shared the points in the season so far. But if you still want to bet on a draw, you can look forward to odds of 3.20 – this is lower than the usual 3.50!
AI-Prediction St. Pauli vs Freiburg: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Meanwhile, looking at ChatGPT for betting tips has become a common means of choice. What did the AI come up with for this game? Do I think it’s realistic enough?
The riskiest tip predicts an away win to nil. Well, SCF has actually won the last two games that way, but Bochum and Heidenheim are really in deep crises. I wouldn’t really trust myself against St. Pauli!
If no goals are scored in the first half, the risk would be significantly lower. Admittedly, there are generally not many goals scored by the Kiezkicker, but: it has only been 0-0 at half-time five times! So I would be very careful with this betting suggestion too.
The “Double Chance 1X” remains just below the odds of 1.50 and is the AI selection in terms of low risk. Since Freiburg has not particularly convinced me lately, I can very well imagine that Hamburg will take their next point (maybe even three).
Analysis: St. Pauli vs. Freiburg
St. Pauli? They’re not just popular outside Hamburg! The cult club from the Elbe enjoyed nationwide popularity decades ago, so now, of course, we’re keeping our fingers crossed that they don’t go straight back down.
After 21 match days, the Kiezkicker have 21 points, putting them seven points ahead of the relegation spot. Not bad, considering that St. Pauli has the worst offense.
Only 18 times has it rung, nobody can beat that. In their own stadium, the offensive weakness is particularly noticeable, as there were actually only seven goals scored here. They have been goalless on eleven occasions, with seven of those games played at home.
After three games without defeat (2-0 against Heidenheim, 3-0 against Union Berlin and 1-1 against Augsburg), they lost again 0-2 to RB Leipzig, conceding two goals for the first time this year.
Odds Analysis
St. Pauli has kept a clean sheet seven times already – so why not risk doing the same against Freiburg? It worked against Heidenheim, Stuttgart and Hoffenheim and SCF in the first leg, and this trio also comes from Baden-Württemberg!
If I had to choose an outcome bet, I would go for a 1-0 win, to the delight of the Hamburg fans. The odds of 7.50 would be worthwhile in any case, and the last teams to beat Freiburg were all ranked from 16th place onwards.
St. Pauli vs. Freiburg: Will the favorites come from Hamburg?
If I look purely at results, I see that they have only lost once away from home, a 2-0 defeat at Gladbach at the end of November. How did the following home game end? 3-1 (against Kiel), which is of course what the fans would gratefully accept on Saturday!
Although the club is not exactly known for its goal-scoring feats, 15 of the last 17 matches have seen goals scored before half-time. Is the “Over 0.5 goals 1st half” tip profitable? Yes and no. At 1.45, the odds are rather modest.
The mood on the Elbe is not bad at all, especially since SC Freiburg is coming from Baden-Württemberg. For whatever reason, but these teams seem to suit Pauli perfectly.
Freiburg and the away games – difficult!
2:0 against Heidenheim, 1:0 against Stuttgart, 3:0 against Freiburg, the last three matches could not have gone better. In Freiburg, word has got around how difficult this opponent is to play against.
The sports club seems to have overcome its crisis, but is still being cautious. 1:4 against Frankfurt, 0:4 against Stuttgart and 1:2 against FC Bayern, the first time this season it had lost three consecutive games.
The team is now working its way back up step by step, winning 1-0 against both Bochum and Heidenheim. Logically, both opponents are in the throes of a major crisis, so we shouldn’t overestimate these six points.
Four goals from the last five games? Slow and steady wins the race! The narrow 1-0 win in Bochum was the first away win since the beginning of October, so there is definitely still room for improvement.
Freiburg has scored nine goals away from home – and that includes a hat-trick against Heidenheim! The goal difference of -14 is the second-worst in the competition, only Bochum are weaker.
Three wins in a row? The Badeners have not yet managed this feat this season, the last time there was a triple in December 2023, when Christian Streich was still on the sidelines.
St. Pauli – Freiburg tip
FC St. Pauli wants to celebrate the next victory with the fans! The recent 2-0 defeat to RB Leipzig should not unsettle the Hamburgers, after all, the cushion between them and the bottom three has not shrunk.
Freiburg are coming, and the Kiezkickers are particularly fond of teams from Baden-Württemberg. Of course, Pauli want to impress defensively, what else. The second-best defense in the league defends passionately and with discipline – but does it even have to?
After all, the Sportclub has scored a measly nine goals away from home and has only won once on the road since the beginning of October. Since the home side have only been allowed to hear their goal anthem seven times themselves, I can only guess at the total:
The 2.5 goals will not be broken!
