St. Pauli – Hoffenheim Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 7 on Sunday, 19.09.2025 at 5:30 p.m.
FC St. Pauli is likely to be one of those clubs that are not unhappy about the Bundesliga break coming to an end. Three defeats in a row had put an emphatic end to the Kiez club’s strong start to the season.
However, on Sunday, the Hamburg team will once again face an opponent of similar strength in Hoffenheim, who are level on points with them. The newly promoted team won both matches against Hoffenheim last season without conceding a goal.
However, as the defensive performance of both teams has not been particularly impressive recently, it is unlikely that there will be another “clean sheet.” In any case, I’m expecting goals from both sides in the St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim match – and I’ve placed my bet accordingly at Bet365 Sportsbook!
The relevant statistics almost make my St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim prediction a safe bet, which, if successful, would also yield a very satisfactory return.
After all, both teams have scored in all three of Hamburg’s home games so far, reliably breaking the 2.5-goal mark. And Hoffenheim? TSG only really feels at home in away stadiums this season anyway.
While the Kraichgauers lost all three of their home games, Christian Ilzer’s team is doing pretty well on the road. The seven points they have brought back from their three away games are currently only topped by the league leaders from Munich.
The starting position at the end of matchday 7 also encourages both teams to go on the offensive. With only a three-point lead over the relegation zone, both teams need all three points to secure their place in mid-table.
St. Pauli – Hoffenheim Prediction & Betting
It is probably due to the recent head-to-head matches that the best-tested betting providers favor the host FC St. Pauli. However, since they have only won 4 of their home games since promotion, the double chance X2 seems to me to be more promising here.
In my opinion, the odds for a countable return for the visitors are impressive in any case. The odds of 1.55 found in the Interwetten app are quite impressive, considering how little TSG has conceded away from home so far.
Somewhat riskier, but also anything but unlikely, is the goalscorer bet that I am now presenting to you. Since he is probably still on cloud nine after his golden goal for Kosovo in Sweden, I am now also committing to an Asllani goal at the Millerntor.
Incidentally, the promised odds of around 3.20 also indicate that Finik Asllani is the bookmakers’ favorite to score for TSG at the Millerntor.
Since my previous bets have been dominated by high-scoring encounters, this spin is rounded off by over 3.5 goals, which, if successful, could see you get back almost three times your stake!
What you need to know about St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim betting
- St. Pauli’s four headers on goal in the Bundesliga this season are the lowest total of any of the 96 clubs in Europe’s top five leagues, suggesting a reluctance to cross into the penalty area.
- No team has conceded more expected goals (xGA) from set pieces this season than Hoffenheim, with 4.17 xGA. In contrast, St. Pauli has conceded the second fewest expected goals (0.82 xGA) from set pieces, behind league leaders Bayern Munich.
- St. Pauli won both games against Hoffenheim last season after returning to the Bundesliga. The hosts this weekend are now considered slight favorites after celebrating a 2-0 away win in Hoffenheim in March.
- St. Pauli’s Hauke Wahl has played 48 passes into the final third in the 2025/26 Bundesliga season. Only four players, from Bayern, Frankfurt, Dortmund, and Leverkusen, have achieved a higher total than Wahl.
St. Pauli – Hoffenheim: AI tip & odds analysis
Sometimes I almost get the impression that the bookmakers are secretly using the research of our in-house AI. Although the Kiez club certainly didn’t invent home advantage, both the bookies and the St. Pauli Hoffenheim AI prediction see the home side coming out on top in the end.
However, I find the odds of just under 2.5 for an FC St. Pauli win a little too low. No wonder: I had already decided in advance that the visitors would put in a more lucrative performance.
Although the first AI tip was a little too risky for me, it does give me reason to believe that there will once again be at least three goals at the Millerntor.
As I explained at the beginning, these three goals don’t even have to be the end of the line – but I’m still happy to take the odds of almost exactly 1.75 offered for this.
Based on the premises mentioned so far, the AI has of course also combined a final St. Pauli Hoffenheim result tip:
A 2-1 win for the hosts doesn’t sound too far-fetched, but for the reasons already mentioned, it’s not even worth a bet at the current odds of 8.25.
The best odds for St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim
When two teams with the same number of points meet on matchday 7, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the game will be evenly balanced. In this case, however, we can definitely expect an open match.
In any case, the betting providers are only showing slight differences in the St. Pauli Hoffenheim odds:
Odds of around 2.45 are being offered for a home win.
Given this indecision, a draw does not seem like such a bad choice, especially as it offers attractive odds of 3.5 times the stake.
However, when it comes to predicting the result, the bookmakers are still favoring a draw:
A 1-1 draw, which at first glance does not seem particularly spectacular, is currently the lowest odds at around 5.75 for St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim.
St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim match analysis:
St. Pauli goes into this game with the same number of points as TSG, just three points above the relegation zone. A win for either team would likely mean that they finish the weekend in the top half of the Bundesliga.
The two teams also rank high in tackles. St. Pauli averages 18.5 per league game, while their opponents average 17.5. Both are well above the league average of 14.8. So we should see a lot of hard tackles here, as the bookmakers are predicting a fiercely contested game.
Both teams have tended to win the ball back high up the pitch this season, which should lead to an exciting tactical battle. Hoffenheim’s PPDA (Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action) of 10.97 is the second lowest in the league, two places ahead of St. Pauli.
Aggressive pressing is likely to make the build-up phase chaotic, and both coaches may opt for a more direct style of play to avoid the onrushing opponents.
By pressing their opponents early, St. Pauli have conceded fewer high-quality scoring chances. The team has an xGA (expected goals against) of 7.35, the fifth-best in the Bundesliga.
However, Alexander Blessin’s team has conceded six goals in its three home games, so Hoffenheim can be confident of scoring, but Christian Ilzer’s team also has major problems in defense.
FC St. Pauli form check
St. Pauli’s second consecutive season in the Bundesliga has proved more difficult than expected. After a promising start with seven points from their first three games, the tide seems to have turned for Alexander Blessin’s team.
The hosts have lost their last three games. During this poor run, they have scored just one goal against Leverkusen, compared to seven goals in their first three games.
Perhaps even more worrying is that St. Pauli have conceded goals in every game played at the Millerntor Stadium so far this season.
In fact, you have to go back to mid-March, when St. Pauli beat Hoffenheim 1-0, to find their last home game without conceding a goal, but that could be a good omen for Sunday.
Blessin’s team is struggling to create scoring chances and currently sits fourth from bottom with 7.2 xG (expected goals). In addition, five of St. Pauli’s eight goals have come from set pieces, underscoring the need for more creativity in the final third of the pitch.
TSG Hoffenheim Form Check
Similar to St. Pauli, Hoffenheim has also suffered a dip in form after a promising start to the season. Christian Ilzer’s team defeated Leverkusen and Union Berlin, both away, but then picked up only one point from a possible nine.
The 1-0 home defeat to Cologne before the international break has dropped the visitors to 12th place in the Bundesliga table.
Interestingly, Hoffenheim’s away form has been excellent, with the visitors unbeaten in five consecutive league games. In the 2025/26 season, only Bayern (9/9) have picked up more away points than Hoffenheim.
Striker Fisnik Asllani, who recently scored the winning goal for Kosovo in their World Cup qualifier in Sweden, is one of the Bundesliga’s latest discoveries.
However, Hoffenheim’s biggest problems are in defense. Ilzer’s team has conceded 12 goals so far, with an xGA (expected goals against) of 10.1, and has yet to keep a clean sheet.
Ermedin Demirovic goes into the game in excellent form and will lead the Hoffenheim attack. He will be supported by Bilal El Khannouss, who also performed well in the 2-0 win against St. Pauli.
