St. Pauli – Leverkusen Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 5 on Saturday, 09/27/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
As a sports betting fan who is always interested in good offers such as the Bet-at-home deposit bonus, the Werkself can simply no longer be trusted.
The early change of coach, the loss of personnel and various other issues, as well as their role as favorites this coming Saturday, make a St. Pauli Leverkusen tip on the Rhinelanders particularly unattractive.
A draw bet, on the other hand, seems much more appealing to me, especially considering the risk-reward ratio. Especially since the Kiezkickers and B04 have already agreed on a draw in 3 of their last 5 test or competitive matches at Millerntor.
DAZN Streaming will broadcast this treat live from Hamburg’s Kiez at 3:30 p.m. HSV fans will certainly be rooting for Leverkusen out of spite, but although I sympathize with the Boys in Brown, I still find it too risky to predict a victory.
With the exception of a few cup victories over B04, St. Pauli has not won against the Rhinelanders in seven Bundesliga matches since their 3-1 home victory in 1996 (2 draws, 5 defeats).
St. Pauli – Leverkusen Prediction & Betting
Patrik Schick scored more Bundesliga away goals than any other player in the 2025 calendar year (11 in 11 games). And even though I don’t believe Leverkusen will win, I think the Czech is capable of scoring the first goal of the game.
1st goal scorer: Schick is available at odds of 4.80 in a good betting app and is therefore of particular interest to me.
Incidentally, this is also my personal prediction for the result. After all, the last meeting between St. Pauli and Leverkusen ended in a 1-1 draw, and the accompanying win multiplier of 6.9x is also attractive.
What you need to know about St. Pauli vs. Leverkusen betting
- Last season, St. Pauli’s games had the lowest goal average in the Bundesliga (2.03), currently it is 2.75 goals per game.
- Leverkusen has been unbeaten in 35 Bundesliga away games since the start of the 2023/24 season (23 wins), scoring 81 goals and conceding 37.
- Since the cup win against Großaspach, both teams have scored in all five competitive games, with an average of 3.8 goals.
- Patrick Schick is Leverkusen’s top scorer with three league goals and ranks third in the league with 2.9 xG – only Serhou Guirassy has more.
St. Pauli – Leverkusen: AI tip & odds analysis
I have openly suggested Schick as the first goalscorer of the match, while our AI model has made its own calculation for this encounter, which supports my assumption.
First goal: Leverkusen at odds of around 1.85 is based, among other things, on the observation that Leverkusen has been in the lead at some point in all four match days of this Bundesliga season, despite several disappointments.
Goal within 15 minutes of play promises odds of around 3.05 in the Betano app and also has good chances of success. This is because Werkself is the club with the most goals in the league within the first quarter of an hour (3).
Finally, double chance 1X is certainly not unreasonable at odds of around 1.70, as Leverkusen has only won two of its last 10 Bundesliga games.
However, in my opinion, a simple draw bet would be clearly preferable to this computer-generated betting tip in terms of the pure risk-return ratio.
The best odds for St. Pauli vs. Leverkusen
When the runners-up visit the Kiez on Saturday, it promises to be a special afternoon full of excitement!
The St. Pauli Leverkusen odds make it even more exciting – Betano and Bet-at-home currently offer the best: 3.30 for a surprise coup by the Kiezkickers, 3.55 for a draw, and 2.20 if the Werkself confirm their slight favoritism.
Those who believe in Pauli will get real value, but the “X” could also be attractive if Leverkusen stumbles.
For German sports betting fans, this is undoubtedly a game that will challenge both the heart and the head – exactly what makes betting so exciting.
St. Pauli vs Leverkusen match analysis:
St. Pauli is entering its second Bundesliga season in 16 years with a lot of euphoria, and despite rare encounters, the duel with Leverkusen has an exciting history.
In their last match in April, the two teams drew 1-1 – Patrik Schick put Leverkusen ahead before Carlo Boukhalfa equalized shortly before the end. Leverkusen had 58% possession, but St. Pauli fought back with high intensity and even had more shots on goal (11-6).
St. Pauli also played close games against Bayer in the previous season, including a narrow 1-2 defeat in Leverkusen. Before that, the Bundesliga duels were a long time ago, most recently in 2010/11, when Bayer won both games.
The overall record from 24 encounters is remarkably even: eight wins for both sides, plus eight draws. At the Millerntor, however, St. Pauli traditionally has the advantage with seven home wins from twelve games.
That’s exactly why this game is a real yardstick – Bayer goes into the game as the favorite, but Pauli is always good for a surprise at home.
Especially considering all the difficulties B04 is currently struggling with, I think the Kiez club is the slight favorite for Saturday.
St. Pauli form check
St. Pauli will continue to be without Ricky-Jade Jones, who is still waiting to make his competitive debut after his shoulder injury. Defender David Nemeth is also out with groin problems.
There is hope, however, with the return of Jackson Irvine, who was back in the squad after his foot injury but did not get any playing time against Stuttgart.
There is a question mark over Sinani, who was substituted in the closing stages last week and replaced by Connor Metcalfe.
His absence would be a bitter loss, as he has been in the starting lineup in all four games so far this season.
Leverkusen form check
Bayer Leverkusen will be able to count on Robert Andrich and Ezequiel Fernandez again on Saturday, who are returning from suspension.
However, the long-term absence of Exequiel Palacios, who is unavailable for the rest of 2025 with groin problems, is a bitter blow.
Martin Terrier is also out with an Achilles tendon injury, so Aleix Garcia is likely to take on an even more important role in midfield.
In addition, Jonas Hofmann is still unavailable due to a thigh injury, but is expected to play a central role again in the future under new coach Kasper Hjulmand.
The availability of Nathan Tella, who already missed the game against Gladbach and has not yet passed the fitness tests, also remains questionable.
