Bundesliga Matchday 6, Saturday, 05.10.2024 at 18:30
For this match, I would take the risk of a draw bet. As usual, the odds are over 3.00, so there must be some reasons that support my tendency for a draw. And there are indeed – for which both teams are equally responsible.
Admittedly, it takes a bit of imagination to say: Yes, when 14th in the table meets twelfth, it’s a match that should be declared a top game on Saturday night. But well, maybe both clubs will set off some absolute fireworks.
In any case, the St. Pauli Mainz odds indicate that this could be a tight affair. Although the home side are ahead, they do so by a very small margin at an average of 2.40 to 2.90.
Sounds like a lot of analysis material, which is now available to me for my St. Pauli Mainz prediction. So I set to work right away, because when the game kicks off at the Millerntor, a lot can happen!
The prediction of the bookmakers?
No sooner have the Paulians claimed their first win than they are already favored, at least minimally. Their own fans should finally be able to cheer at the Elbe, and odds of 2.40 are being called for a three-pointer against Mainz.
The odds for Mainz are slightly higher. The 05ers are hard to pigeonhole, whether 3:3, 0:2 or 3:2, anything can happen. If you want to take the risk of an away win, you will be rewarded with odds of 2.90.
Both teams have already drawn three times in total, and Mainz have a reputation for close results anyway. A draw can therefore not be ruled out, a good 3.35 is in it here.
KI prediction St. Pauli vs Mainz: This is what ChatGPT
Naturally, I have once again asked the artificial intelligence what it has to say about the game between St. Pauli and Mainz. Not all bets necessarily suit my taste.
With regard to the high risk, a win for the hosts with a one-goal lead is suggested. Possible, of course. IF Hamburg actually win, then probably really close, but I’d rather go with a draw.
The medium risk is achieved with the bet “Under 2.5 goals”. That’s not a bad bet in my eyes. Admittedly, Mainz are not boring at the moment, but St. Pauli are good defensively. The odds of 1.95 in the Betano app could therefore be a good investment.
ChatPGT says for “Both teams to score”: A top tip with low risk! I basically agree, because both teams are not very familiar with white vests. What’s more, the fans at the Millerntor will certainly want to see a few goals.
Analysis: St. Pauli vs Mainz
FC St. Pauli have arrived in the 1st Bundesliga – and now finally in terms of results! The fans had to wait a long time for the first three-pointer, then it came relatively unexpectedly in Freiburg.
Sportclub had started the new season really well, but last Saturday the FC St. Pauli players proved to be merciless. Elias Saad was the celebrated man and is currently in absolute top form.
He netted after just eleven minutes and even added a second goal at the end. Hamburg won 3:0, it was the perfect performance all round. And that despite the club only having 26 percent possession!
The Kiezkickers didn’t care at all that their opponents were playing the game. They preferred to enjoy the fact that three of their four shots on goal were on target, meaning that merciless efficiency was a guest in the Black Forest.
Odds analysis
As a further betting recommendation, I can recommend a 1:1 as the final result. If you place this result bet at Bet365, you can not only win odds of 6.50, but also the Bet365 promotion code
In addition, I trust the hosts to use the tailwind from the win against Freiburg and start like a fire engine – after all, they are loudly supported. Should Pauli score the first goal of the match, odds of 1.90 will be due.
Who will be on the scoresheet? Jonathan Burkhardt is in particularly good form and I definitely believe he will score his fourth goal of the season. You can expect odds of 3.00 if you agree to this bet.
St. Pauli vs. Mainz: Who has to win the game?
What did it help the team that they had more possession than their opponents in Augsburg and Union Berlin? Right, nothing at all! They lost 1:3 and 0:1, and also failed to score in the 0:2 against Heidenheim.
How was the 0-0 draw against RB Leipzig achieved? With fight and passion, because even here 30 percent possession was somehow enough. The 3-0 win in Freiburg was also the first ever victory after 13 years in the top flight.
So there were celebrations, but everyone knows: Far more three-pointers are needed to stay in the top flight. The Millerntor will be keen to score their first goal at home on Saturday and are looking for a successful evening.
Mainz in search of consistency
All key players will be fit for the first clash with Mainz 05 since 2011. So I’ll save myself the direct comparison, as it’s unlikely to have any effect on current performances.
Too bad for Mainz, because otherwise I could have said: After all, the 05ers have only lost two of the last twelve duels. But I’ll stick to the current events, and the Rheinhessen really have enough to offer.
After the opening draws against Union Berlin (1-1) and Stuttgart (3-3), they lost 2-1 to Bremen, their first defeat in eleven games on points – and it wasn’t to be their last.
As nice as the 3-2 win in Augsburg was, the mood of optimism was gone again as soon as they lost 2-0 to Heidenheim. It’s hard to believe that the 05ers ended the 2023/24 season having conceded five goals in their last eight games.
At the moment, the defense is the big problem, having conceded ten times. They have conceded at least two in four games. Is this THE chance for FC St. Pauli?
A look at Winamax reveals: If more than 1.5 home goals are scored on Saturday, the odds are 2.15.
But: At the same time, Mainz have delivered a lot away from home. Three goals in Stuttgart, three in Augsburg, in the south of the republic the offense ignited! Will it work just as well in the north of Germany?
It is not yet entirely clear how the team will travel to Hamburg. While Andreas Hanche-Olsen is suspended, Maxim Leitsch and Maxim Dal have caught a flu-like infection – it’s unclear whether they’ll be available for the weekend!
My St. Pauli Mainz tip:
Fingers are crossed in Hamburg! St. Pauli have finally notched up their first win and are keen to follow it up in front of their own fans. A mini-series already exists, namely the fact that they have scored twice without conceding a goal.
And Freiburg and RB Leipzig were by no means weak opponents! I still can’t really get a grip on Mainz 05 this season. Anything can happen, both offensively and defensively, but they’ve only won once.
I’m therefore assuming that both teams will meet at eye level. What does that mean for my bet? Let’s put it this way, I believe that the risk of the following tip will pay off here:
St. Pauli and Mainz will share the points!
