St. Pauli – Stuttgart Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 21 on Saturday, 07/02/2026 at 15:30 CET
When talking about a team of the hour in the Bundesliga at the moment, TSG Hoffenheim first attracts everyone’s attention. At the same time, a sensational season is currently being worked on in Stuttgart.
Still in the race in both the DFB Cup and the Europa League, the Swabians are increasingly focused on qualifying for the Champions League in the Bundesliga.
The improved performance away from home is not least responsible for the excellent prospects. While there were still serious teething problems away from home at the beginning of the season, clear away victories do not seem to be a serious problem at the moment.
This is mainly due to the strong attack, which only seduces me into expecting at least two VfB goals in the St. Pauli Stuttgart tip.
It should make life a little easier for Stuttgart on Saturday afternoon that the host is on the ropes despite mostly quite presentable performances.
With just two points conceded, no other Bundesliga club has made less of the five games played in 2026 than Hamburg.
Not the best conditions to compete with an official high-flyer, which is why most of my betting suggestions revolve around VfB Stuttgart.
St. Pauli – Stuttgart Prediction & Betting
In addition to my main tip, I have a few other interesting St. Pauli Stuttgart bets for you on the list. A classic victory of the Swabians is almost a bench for me. I’m happy to take the odds of 1.80 at bet365 for an away win.
If you want to take a little more risk, take a look at the “Win to 0” for Stuttgart. VfB have kept four clean sheets in their last seven league games. St. Pauli is also the offensively weakest team in the league. This results in a top odd of 3.25 for betting providers with PayPal.
Of course, a bet on a goalscorer should not be missing. There is no way around Denis Undav here. The striker has already netted eleven times in 13 starting eleven appearances and is the life insurance in Stuttgart’s attack. A bet on him is always worth considering.
At the Millerntor, an Undav goal is quoted at around 1.83; for a double pack of the VfB kicker, the bookmakers even promise 5.5 times the repayment of the stake.
What you need to consider when betting on St. Pauli vs. Stuttgart
- With 14 points after 20 games, St. Pauli is playing the second-worst Bundesliga season in the club’s history.
- With eight clean sheets, Stuttgart have already kept more clean sheets this season than in the whole of last season.
- The last five direct duels were rather low-scoring with an average of 1.8 goals per game. Only one game ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Stuttgart have won the last two games against St. Pauli and have not conceded a single goal.
St. Pauli – Stuttgart: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
I took a look at what our AI tool says about this game, and the numbers completely confirm my impression. The algorithm sees Stuttgart clearly in the role of favorites with a probability of victory of 53.1%. A home win is much less likely at 22.4%.
The projected goal numbers also support my main tip. The tool calculates 1.53 goals for Stuttgart, which is exactly above the mark I am aiming for. For St. Pauli, on the other hand, only 0.93 goals are expected, which underpins the bet on a win to nil. The combined over 2.5 goals result in odds of around 1.85 at old and new bookmakers.
The St. Pauli Stuttgart betting odds reflect this assessment. The bookmakers give VfB an implicit chance of winning of around 56% and thus see the guests as clear favourites. The Swabians are on course for the Champions League and this is reflected in the odds.
The Asian Handicap Line is at Stuttgart -0.5 – odds of 1.74. For you, this means that if you bet on Stuttgart, VfB must win for your bet to go through. A draw or a home win would mean that the bet on St. Pauli would win +0.5.
For the Asian over/under, the line is set at 2.5 goals. In view of a league average of 3.20 goals per game, this is a rather moderate mark, which of course attracts many bettors who want to bet on “over”.
In the market for goalscorers, Denis Undav is the absolute top candidate. With its impressive values, it is a bank. Only Harry Kane has scored more often in the current 2025/26 season. You should definitely keep an eye on his quota – and of course I do too.
The best odds for St. Pauli vs. Stuttgart
The St. Pauli Stuttgart odds point to a clear fall for the Schwaben-Express. VfB win odds of around 1.80 also make somewhat bolder bets interesting here.
After the last three away games always went to the chest ring bearers with at least a two-goal lead, the handicap victory -1 is now good for odds of about 3.25 this time.
Higher payouts are possible in the 1×2 bet for the two options that do not revolve around a victory for the official favorite.
While bettors can calculate odds of around 3.60 for tip X, the end of the line is only reached when betting on a home win for the Hamburg Kiezkicker at values of just under 4.5.
St. Pauli vs Stuttgart Match Analysis:
The starting position could not be clearer: St. Pauli, seventeenth in the table, is deep in the relegation battle, while Stuttgart dream of entering the Champions League in fourth. A whole 25 points separate the two teams in the table.
VfB is the big favourite with the bookmakers, and that’s no wonder. Sebastian Hoeneß’s team plays rousing attacking football. Since the defeat against Bayern in December, they have averaged a strong 2.29 goals per league game.
St. Pauli, on the other hand, is having an extremely difficult time in attack. The Kiezkicker have the fewest shots and the fewest goals in the entire Bundesliga. Coach Alexander Blessin will probably try to close the shop at the back, as he cannot rely on his offense.
Stuttgart won the first leg of this season 2-0. Last season, the Swabians also kept a clean sheet in this duel. St. Pauli managed just four shots on goal in these two games combined.
Hoeneß’s team will again try to hardly let the hosts develop. With an average of 15.5 shots per game, VfB has the third-best value in the league. So St. Pauli keeper Nikola Vasilj will have a lot of work to do.
The St. Pauli Stuttgart forecast is therefore clear. Anything other than a victory for the guests would be a huge surprise. The differences in quality between the two teams are simply too huge at the moment.
St. Pauli Form Check
The crisis at St. Pauli is getting worse and worse. The 2-1 defeat against Augsburg was followed by a clear 3-0 defeat in the DFB Cup quarter-finals against Leverkusen during the week. The Hamburgers have won only one of their last nine competitive games.
The Kiezkicker are playing a historically bad season. Only in the 2001/02 season did they have fewer points after 20 matchdays with twelve points. At the end of this season, they were relegated as the bottom of the table.
The last victory dates back to December 13 against Heidenheim. Since this 2-1 home win, Hamburg have only been able to pick up three meagre points in the league. This victory is the only one in the last 17 Bundesliga games. That is a frightening result.
A small glimmer of hope is the home record. Despite the general misery, St. Pauli has remained unbeaten in the last three league home games. But that’s the only positive thing that can be said about the current form.
The main problem remains the offensive. With only 18 goals scored, St. Pauli has the weakest attack in the league. In eight games, they did not even manage to score a goal of their own. Only Borussia Mönchengladbach was more harmless with nine goalless games.
The statistics of expected goals (xG) also speak volumes. With a value of 18.31, the Hamburg team occupies last place in the league ranking. On average, they only fire 10.40 shots per game, which is also the lowest value.
Stuttgart Form Check
At Stuttgart, things are going like clockwork. Thanks to a goal from Deniz Undav, the Swabians advanced to the DFB Cup semi-finals against Holstein Kiel during the week. It was the fourth victory in a row across all competitions.
Last Sunday, a late goal by Ermedin Demirovic in the 89th minute secured a 1-0 home win against Freiburg. VfB thus consolidated fourth place in the table and now has a three-point lead over RB Leipzig. This is an impressive achievement.
With 39 points after 20 games, Stuttgart is playing one of the best Bundesliga seasons in the club’s history. Only in 2003/04 and 1983/84 were the chest ring bearers similarly successful at this time. The current form is simply outstanding.
VfB are unbeaten in seven Bundesliga games, winning five and drawing two. Things are also getting better and better away from home. The last three away games in Bremen, Leverkusen and Gladbach have all been won, with a goal difference of 11-1.
The defence is the showpiece. Stuttgart have already kept eight clean sheets this season, which is already one more clean sheet than in the entire previous season. The VfB kickers only concede 1.35 expected goals (xG) per game – the fourth-best value in the league.
Offensively, Deniz Undav and Ermedin Demirovic in particular are causing a sensation. Undav scored his 15th goal of the season against Kiel. Demirovic scored his 50th Bundesliga goal against Freiburg and has the sixth-best average in the league with 0.70 goals per 90 minutes.
