St. Pauli – Union Berlin Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 11 on Sunday, 23/11/2025 at 17:30 CET
Not for football aesthetes – more something for all those who enjoy a hammer-hard fight and honest work. At the end of the 11th matchday of the Bundesliga, St. Pauli and Union, the two teams that have not scored a goal of their own most often in the current calendar year, will meet.
Goalless performances had recently piled up, especially for Hamburg, who slipped deeper and deeper into ruin with only two honorary goals in the last seven games.
However, the penetration of the Irons is not much better, who won sensationally 4-3 in Frankfurt – but remained without any offensive proof of work in all other guest appearances.
While St. Pauli has been on the ground for months now, the Köpenickers surpassed themselves in impressive fashion immediately before the international break in the near victory against FC Bayern (2-2).
Nevertheless, I warn against drawing conclusions from this strong performance regarding the performance to be expected now. After all, experience teaches that Union can rarely repeat such performances.
As mentioned, the Berliners had already watched a completely surprising 4-3 victory on the Main in September, only to then cucumber a completely unimaginative 0-0 against HSV – and FCU was also on the road without any (offensive) mission in the following 0-2 in Leverkusen.
So if I had to choose a team, I would rather speculate on a home win, because St. Pauli pursues a much more demanding style of play despite all its failures.
St. Pauli – Union Berlin Prediction & Betting
My slight tendency towards FC St. Pauli is obviously also supported by the German bookmakers, who provide the host with the slightly better chances of success.
Nevertheless, the safety variant Head-2-Head: Sieg St. Pauli is still very playable at an acceptable odds of around 1.75. If the game ends in a draw – as I actually expected – tipsters will get their stakes back here.
Although the neighbourhood club won last year’s home game 3-0, in my opinion there is hardly anything to be said for 3+ goals. The consequential Under 2.5 hits bring in a solid odds of around 1.70.
Since increased efforts are to be expected, especially on the part of Hamburg, the duel will probably not end completely goalless. So I see the result tip 1:1 at odds of only 5.50 as quite promising!
What you need to know about St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin betting
- St. Pauli have won the last two competitive games against Union Berlin at home, 3-2 in the 2nd Bundesliga in February 2019 and 3-0 in the Bundesliga in January of this year. The latter was the biggest home win since promotion to the top flight in 2024.
- With seven points from the first ten Bundesliga games, FC St. Pauli have made their worst start to the season since their promotion to the top flight. Only in the 2001/02 season did the club score so few points.
- Union Berlin are without a win in three Bundesliga games (2 draws, 1 defeat) and have thus not won three games in a row for the first time this season. The last two away games were lost – the most away defeats in a row that coach Steffen Baumgart has experienced with the club.
- FC St. Pauli failed to score in 14 Bundesliga games in the 2025 calendar year, while 1. In the current Bundesliga season, St. Pauli also has the lowest expected goal count (10.1), while Union Berlin has the third lowest (11.6)
St. Pauli – Union Berlin: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
In view of the signs of crisis among the hosts, who are actually slightly favored, the artificial intelligence also advises a draw, but sometimes derives somewhat curious betting suggestions from this.
The fact that both teams score – at odds of about 1.80 – can certainly find my approval. After that, however, the AI overshoots the mark in terms of goals, in my opinion.
The predicted over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10 should then result in the audience getting to see at least a 2:2 in view of the expected draw.
In this case, tipsters could of course go straight for the Over 3.5 goals, for which it is actually worth hoping for a shooting festival – namely at odds of about 3.65.
Somewhat unusual for a duel of such consistent goal refusers, the other recommendations of our artificial intelligence also take a look at what is happening in front of the goals.
However, it makes perfect sense to trust Danilho Doekhi to score a goal in the goalscorer bets, who kicks in the Berlin defence, but recently appeared with braces against Bielefeld and Bayern.
Thanks to their defender, the Irons only need one or two set-pieces to make the necessary boots to stay in the league. If Doekhi now also scores at the Millerntor, he will return 9.5 times the stake. Simply sensational!
The best odds for St. Pauli vs. Union Berlin
Of course, it can’t speak for the Irons from the capital that the St. Pauli Union Berlin odds favor the team that is currently going through a historic dry spell – and demonstrably does not come from the Spree.
For the Hamburgers, who may already be breathing an inwardly sigh of relief, the average win rate of 2.45 is not a real cushion of peace either.
The odds correspond to a probability of just over 40.0 percent, which is quite laughable when you consider the mini-chances of success of the Köpenickers before the undoubtedly deserved point against Bayern.
So it remains the case that good money can be earned with a bet on Union Berlin – as long as FCU now of course also lets actions speak for themselves in the Hanseatic city.
The draw, which I actually placed on the betting slip, represents the top of the odds flagpole with odds of 3.30: In other Bundesliga games of the weekend, however, the draw was quoted much higher.
Thus, the bookies expressly do not rule out the possibility of a draw, which therefore also applies to an away win: With odds scratching the 3 mark, the payouts here are even a tad lower compared to tip X.
St. Pauli vs Union Berlin Match Analysis:
Union Berlin goes into this game with a five-point lead over the second-to-last team in the table.
The pressure on Alexander Blessin is growing in view of the losing streak, and the more defensive approach in the last game did not pay off, so St. Pauli should try to play offensively again here.
The host has a 62.18% field share, which suggests that much of this match will take place in the opponent’s half.
Union is also more than willing to entrench itself deeply. Steffen Baumgart’s team allows the second most passes per defensive action (PPDA) in the Bundesliga and also has the lowest average possession.
It is to be expected that the guests will exert pressure and exploit the weaknesses of the St. Pauli defense on the counterattack.
Baumgart’s team is also strong in set pieces, which will give Alexander Blessin a headache. Union have scored six goals from set-pieces, more than any other team in the league. That could be decisive here.
It promises to be an exciting tactical battle, and since St. Pauli has to find an answer after a miserable form crisis, the game is likely to be played with high intensity.
St. Pauli Form Check
As coach Alexander Blessin admitted, St. Pauli opted for a more defensive approach in its last game against Freiburg.
After six consecutive defeats in the league, Blessin focused on defensive stability, but this decision ultimately hindered St. Pauli’s offensive efforts.
The hosts had only two shots on goal in their last game and had only 36% possession. Nevertheless, St. Pauli managed to score a goal in the 2-1 defeat.
Normally, St. Pauli controls possession with an average of over 50% and leads the league in pressing in the opponent’s half.
The problem, however, is that Hamburg have a hard time successfully completing their attacks and have the worst value in the league with only 1.01 xG (expected goals) per game.
For St. Pauli, who failed to score a goal in 14 Bundesliga games in the 2025 calendar year, it is crucial to find their way into the goal this weekend.
Union Berlin Form Check
Union Berlin have had little to reproach themselves for in recent weeks, especially after the 2-2 draw against Bayern. Now it depends on whether Steffen Baumgart’s team can repeat this strong performance against weaker opponents.
Union seem to be at a slight disadvantage in this game after losing their last two away games. However, Baumgart has never lost three away games in a row as coach of the Berlin club.
Union Berlin will need to show more courage and initiative, as they have an average of just 32% possession in the Bundesliga this season, the lowest rate in the top five leagues in Europe.
This is also reflected in the poor goal yield, as the guests have not scored a single goal in 13 league games in 2025.
Nevertheless, Union’s outstanding performance this year remains the 4-3 away win against Frankfurt, which shows that the guests can perform at their best against top-class opponents.
