Bundesliga Matchday 32, Saturday, 03.05.2025 at 15:30
FC St. Pauli is facing a huge moment: on Saturday afternoon, they can celebrate staying up in the league together with their fans at the Millerntor, with two matchdays to go! There could hardly be a greater motivation for the Kiezkickers.
They have a home game against the reigning runners-up, but it seems as if they have already given up on the season. The cup finalists are dragging themselves towards the end – so it’s no surprise that I’m going for the “Double Chance 1X.”
In addition, due to the incredibly strong defense of the home team, I’m also betting on “Under 4.5 goals.” Only two teams in the entire league defend slightly better than Pauli, whose defense compensates for what the attack simply cannot deliver up front.
At this point, however, there is no room (yet) for excessive criticism; after all, a promoted team could secure its place in the league early here. I can well imagine that VfB will be part of this party – because their own party is taking place in Berlin in a few weeks.
And so I send the two teams out, knowing full well that a win for Hamburg would be no surprise. And anyone who doesn’t think they can do it would be well advised to take a quick look back at the first half of the season.
The bookmakers’ prediction?
A real favorite in this game? There isn’t one. If you take a look at the odds at our ApplePay bookmakers, you’ll see that a home win is almost as likely as an away win.
The average odds are 2.70 to 2.50, so the Swabians have only a slight advantage. But St. Pauli has nothing to fear, because Stuttgart has won only one of its last ten games.
With five draws at home and six away, both teams are well accustomed to sharing the points. If that’s why you want to bet on a draw on Saturday, you can do so at odds of 3.50.
AI prediction St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart: ChatGPT’s tip
Let’s give ChatGPT another go, because sooner or later we’ll have to take a break for the summer. The AI has picked out a few interesting tips for this game – not all of them appeal to me.
Of course, we’re taking a big risk with a result bet, but it could well be worth it. This time, we’re going for a 1-0 win. Pauli have kept six clean sheets in eight wins this season and are defending strongly. So my conclusion is: definitely possible.
We continue with medium risk, where we would go for a draw after the first 45 minutes. That has been the case six times at the Millerntor, always with a 0-0 score. Since eight of VfB’s last eleven games have ended that way, I don’t think this bet is unlikely.
Added to this is the classic “both teams to score.” A bold prediction, because Hamburg have failed to do so in eleven home games. BTS is certainly not out of the question, but in my opinion it’s not a sure thing either.
Analysis: St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart
FC St. Pauli deserves to be the first team in my analysis. For years, attempts to return to the Bundesliga failed, but in 2024, the time had finally come.
Consequently, the team simply played to stay in the league in 2024/25. If someone had told the Hamburg team at the beginning of the season that they would secure their place in the league on the 32nd match day, purely mathematically speaking, they would have been grateful.
The lead over the relegation spot is six points, and direct relegation is virtually impossible due to goal difference (-10 for St. Pauli, -29 for Kiel in 17th place).
A goal difference of -10? That doesn’t sound too bad. Frankfurt and Bremen, who are fighting for Europe, are only slightly worse off. The reason is simple: St. Pauli defends incredibly well.
Odds analysis
Hamburg is preparing for a big party to celebrate staying in the league. As the home side are likely to go into the game highly motivated, I can see a lot of value in betting on “St. Pauli to score first.” At Bwin, the odds are climbing to 2.05.
At the same time, don’t forget the Bwin voucher, which can double your deposit. Since Pauli are very good defensively, I don’t think the visitors will score. If you bet that Stuttgart won’t score, you can get great odds of 3.60.
I’m actually thinking of recommending a home win with no goals conceded – St. Pauli likes to do that. The odds of 4.85 at Betano would definitely be worth it.
St. Pauli vs. VfB Stuttgart: Who still has something left in the tank?
36 goals have been conceded, with only Leverkusen (35) and Bayern (29) conceding fewer. The promoted team has kept nine clean sheets. But they have to defend well because they don’t have much going forward.
St. Pauli has scored 26 times, making them the weakest attack in the Bundesliga. When the team takes the lead, it usually keeps its nerve, dropping only four points this season.
Incidentally, 16 goals have been conceded at the Millerntor, with only Mainz managing a better record with 15. With ten goals scored, that works out to an average of 1.7 goals per home game.
Three home games have surpassed the 2.5-goal mark. St. Pauli has been unbeaten for four matchdays and has lost only one of its last six games – and a narrow 2-3 defeat at Bayern Munich can really happen to even the best.
Most recently, they fell behind at home against Gladbach and Leverkusen, but still managed to salvage a 1-1 draw in the end. So everything could be so wonderful, if it weren’t for some bad news on the personnel front.
Pauli not at full strength
Jackson Irvine has to undergo surgery and will be out for months! Connor Metcalfe is also suspended for Saturday’s game against Stuttgart. The prospect of securing their place in the league should ensure that these absences can be compensated for.
St. Pauli won against Stuttgart in 1988 and 1996, but traveled to Swabia a few months ago with a meager haul of 21 points from 21 games. They sensationally took home a 1-0 win and could now win twice in a row for the first time in history.
Can Stuttgart prevent that? Or do they WANT to prevent it? I don’t want to accuse the reigning vice-champions of competitive misconduct, but I do wonder where the magnificent performances of last season have gone.
One win in their last ten games, disappointing results as far as the eye can see, and they have plummeted to the lower mid-table in the league. Things have been in disarray for months, especially at home.
The latest 0-1 defeat against Heidenheim was another negative highlight, with the last six games all lost. At least the statistic “two defeats in the last eleven away games” is more encouraging.
2-2 in Kiel, 0-1 in Frankfurt, 4-0 against Bochum, 4-4 at Union Berlin? No, there’s no need to try to understand the latest results. Since mid-January, there has been only one clean sheet, so defensively the team is in a much worse position than in 2023/24.
It has become simply impossible to pigeonhole VfB. They have conceded a total of 51 goals, which is significantly more than FC St. Pauli.
Incidentally, the Swabians are also not fielding their best team. Enzo Millot had to sit out the last game, and Josha Vagnoman is unlikely to be a real option this weekend.
My St. Pauli VfB Stuttgart prediction:
Is VfB Stuttgart putting all its eggs in the cup final basket? And can that really work out? The Swabians are hardly a serious opponent in the Bundesliga anymore, even as the 2024 runners-up.
The mood at St. Pauli, on the other hand, is completely different. Everyone there knows that the big party to celebrate staying up is coming and that they can rely completely on their great defense.
The Kiezkickers want to give the seriously injured Jackson Irvine a gift, while the visitors just want to get through somehow. That’s why I’ve decided to go with the following tip:
Pauli will score under 4.5 goals!
