NFL 2024/25: Steelers – Giants
It doesn’t take much imagination to see why I want to redeem the Oddset Freebet this Tuesday with a Steelers Giants tip that aims for a low final score.
Both teams are made for an under-40.5 points bet. Nevertheless, I have to admit to the Steelers fans that Russell Wilson’s debut a few weeks ago makes them the slight favorite in this close game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have recently stepped up their offensive performance and scored a total of 69 points in their last two games.
That’s a decent step forward considering they only managed 92 points in their first five games.
But don’t let this increase fool you: even though it makes the offense look a little better at first glance, the success rate per play in this phase is only 39.4%.
In the last few games, Russell Wilson has delivered solid performances, but without overly shining.
With 16 of 29 successful passes, he was able to score 264 yards and two touchdowns, with a large part of these yards resulting from three long passes with gains of 30, 36 and 44 yards.
This heavy reliance on a few explosive plays illustrates the Steelers’ difficulty in putting in consistent offensive performances. Nevertheless, I think that with “Houdini” they will be able to mount an attack on the playoff places in the future.
Now to the New York Giants, our “Big Blue” or “G-Men”: Despite the 28 points they have allowed recently, their defense is considered underrated and quite capable of holding their own against big opponents.
In the last meeting against the Eagles, the Giants’ defensive line ran into trouble on the ground in particular, allowing 264 rushing yards.
The pass defense, on the other hand, was much more stable. Jalen Hurts only managed to score 70 yards in the air and was brought to the ground five times. The matchup against the Steelers offense should suit them better!
However, the Giants themselves usually fall by the wayside offensively. They scored just 10 points in their last two games, despite the promising rookie receiver Malik Nabers returning in Week 7.
Despite his return, however, New York has barely made any progress and now ranks 28th in decisive plays per play, 23rd in offensive DVOA and 29th in red zone touchdown rate (42.11%).
Daniel Jones continues to be under a lot of pressure, with the eighth-highest pressure rate per dropback in the league, while the Steelers, on the other hand, have a strong defense that ranks near the top in many statistics, including a top-10 pass rush win rate.
If you look at the playing styles of both teams, we can expect a defensively dominated Monday Night Football game that will probably struggle to crack the 40-point mark.
The Steelers, under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, rely heavily on the run game, but they don’t show the efficiency of the Eagles, instead remaining rather mediocre in terms of EPA per run play and success per carry.
It seems questionable that Pittsburgh will prevail offensively in this matchup. Although Wilson shows signs of a variable passing game on good days, the Giants’ defense is much more stable against passes than against runs.
New York has allowed an average of only 5.8 yards per opposing pass attempt in the last three games – and that against experienced QBs like Hurts, Joe Burrow and Geno Smith.
Therefore, it will probably be more difficult for Wilson and his team to score tons of first downs here.
By the way, something different: In two weeks, Pittsburgh will become the center of political tension, because Pennsylvania is known as a “swing state” and could tip the scales for the upcoming presidential election.
Conclusion: The game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants is likely to be a defensive battle, and a big points firework is rather unlikely.
Pittsburgh may be the minimal favorite here, but the odds seem to favor them a bit too much. Therefore, a bet on “under 40.5 points” seems to be the safer option.
Both teams have struggled to score offensively of late, relying instead on solid defense. Anyone expecting a low-scoring duel could have the best chances with this option.
My tip: Under 40.5 points
