Stuttgart – Heidenheim Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 6 on Sunday, 10/05/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
On Matchday 6 of the Bundesliga, we have a southern derby in store with the clash between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Heidenheim. While Stuttgart are looking to cement their place in the upper half of the table with a win, Heidenheim are already in desperate need of points at the bottom of the table.
In my Stuttgart vs. Heidenheim prediction, however, I am focusing less on the actual outcome and more on the goal bet “Under 2.5 goals” at NEO.bet, with odds of around 2.60.
Neither team’s offense is performing well yet (VfB 7 goals, FCH 4 goals), which is likely to be reflected in a rather tough match.
In any case, there is likely to be a lot of uncertainty among the Stuttgart players. After three competitive wins in a row, they seemed to be on the road to recovery, but they put in a weak performance in their recent 2-0 defeat to FC Basel in the Europa League.
So I don’t believe that VfB will simply blow FCH out of the stadium.
In addition, Stuttgart are facing an opponent who have recently gained new confidence. Frank Schmidt’s team secured their first Bundesliga win of the season with a 2-1 victory over Augsburg.
Will this trend continue? Those who believe so can take a risk with the “double chance X2” at strong odds of around 2.85.
Stuttgart – Heidenheim Prediction & Bets
Since I’m expecting a much more evenly matched game than the bookmakers are, the potential for value bets in my Stuttgart Heidenheim prediction is relatively high.
The alternative tip “draw at half-time” also offers great odds (2.65) at betting providers with a German license. The bet would have been successful in two of the last three VfB games.
The tip “Heidenheim to score” is also worth considering. The odds are above the 1.50 mark and are supported by the fact that FCH has scored in three of its last four games. However, I don’t think Schmidt’s team will score more than one goal.
And that brings me straight to my third alternative tip. With the 1-1 draw, I have a specific result in mind. Neither team has recorded a draw so far this season, so it’s about time. The odds of around 10.0 outweigh the risk.
What you need to know about betting on Stuttgart vs. Heidenheim
- Since the start of last season, VfB Stuttgart has won only nine and lost eight of 19 Bundesliga home games.
- Heidenheim averages only 16.8 touches in the penalty area per game – the lowest in the Bundesliga. With an average of 9.8 shots per game, the team also has the lowest average in the league.
- “Both teams to score – No” has been the outcome in five of Heidenheim’s last seven Bundesliga games. This selection has also been successful in both of Stuttgart’s home games this season.
- Angelo Stiller has been among the top ten percent of midfielders in Europe’s top five leagues over the past twelve months in terms of assists, expected assists (xAG), goal-creating actions, and progressive passes.
Stuttgart – Heidenheim: AI tip & odds analysis
As always, our AI assistant is getting involved at this point and has its very own Stuttgart Heidenheim AI prediction up its sleeve.
To start with, the digital brain is throwing all the frills out of the window and is betting on a Stuttgart home win. With odds of around 1.45 at Interwetten Germany, the risk here is simply too great for me. The defeat against Basel proved that VfB is still a long way from regaining its former strength.
I am torn about the AI’s second tip. “Both teams to score” at odds of around 1.65 is consistent with my main tip and the predicted 1-1 result. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the game ended 0-0.
The third AI tip is very interesting. “Stuttgart under 1.5 goals” has excellent odds (2.80). At least in their last game against Basel, the Swabians lacked the necessary punch in attack.
The best odds for Stuttgart vs. Heidenheim
VfB Stuttgart went into both home games this season against Gladbach and St. Pauli as clear favorites. Both games ended in home wins, with the opponents failing to score a goal.
The odds of 1.42 for a home win in the match between VfB Stuttgart and Heidenheim indicate a 72.4% probability of success for Sebastian Hoeneß’s team.
Despite Stuttgart’s Europa League defeat in Switzerland, the bookmakers are taking a clear position in the 1X2 market.
Last season, Stuttgart started with similar odds in their most recent direct encounter – but on that occasion, Heidenheim left the field as 1-0 winners.
Previously, in the 2023/24 season, Stuttgart’s implied chance of winning was as high as 78.7%. Here, too, the Swabians were unable to confirm their role as favorites and had to settle for a 3-3 draw.
Heidenheim was set at an Asian handicap line of +1.25. In this scenario, the away team can still make a profit with a one-goal defeat. If Stuttgart wins the game by two goals, however, those betting on the -1.25 home handicap will benefit.
The bookmakers have also set an over/under line of 3.25 goals. With both teams currently averaging less than 3.00 goals per 90 minutes – in a league where 11 of 18 teams score more than 3.00 goals – betting on “under 3.25 goals” could be worthwhile for players.
Stuttgart vs Heidenheim match analysis:
Heidenheim relied on a deep defense in their April clash with Stuttgart and are likely to take a similar approach again.
At that time, Frank Schmidt’s players had only 30% possession and struggled to create promising chances. Mathias Honsak scored the only goal of the game from distance. Once again, it is unlikely that the visitors will create many chances.
Stuttgart will have the majority of possession, but the key will be to find gaps in Heidenheim’s defense.
Angelo Stiller will play a key role with his passing accuracy: Over the past twelve months, he has averaged 4.03 chances per 90 minutes. Sebastian Hoeneß will need his playmaker to be at his best.
Set pieces are very important for Heidenheim. 40.8% of their shots this season have come from set pieces, which have already led to two goals.
Stuttgart Form Check
VfB Stuttgart’s positive Bundesliga run continued last weekend when Josha Vagnoman’s late goal secured a 2-1 comeback win against Cologne – Stuttgart’s first away win of the season.
After a bumpy start, Stuttgart found its stride and celebrated three consecutive wins before the Basel defeat, including victories against St. Pauli and Celta Vigo in the UEFA Europa League.
The underlying data shows Stuttgart’s stable organization: With only 5.7 expected goals against (xGA), VfB has the third-best defense in the league and has also kept two clean sheets at home.
At the same time, the difficulty in creating clear scoring chances remains evident, with a rather modest xG value of 6.9.
It remains to be seen whether Stuttgart’s participation in the Europa League could slow down their ambitions in the Bundesliga.
However, if Honeß’s team plays with discipline, a quick rise up the table should be possible.
Heidenheim form check
Heidenheim’s hard-fought 2-1 win over Augsburg marks an important moment in their Bundesliga season and ends a run of four consecutive defeats.
Despite a difficult start, the team has shown potential, particularly in the attacking partnership of Mikkel Kaufmann and Sirlord Conteh.
However, the underlying data reveals weaknesses across the pitch.
With an xG of 6.2 but only four goals scored, Heidenheim needs to work on its finishing – currently, its attack is the second worst in the league. The picture is similar defensively, with ten goals conceded against an xGA of 10.2.
While their home record has improved after last weekend’s win, Heidenheim have yet to pick up a point away from home.
In their third Bundesliga season, the team faces the difficult task of avoiding relegation – a fate they only escaped in the 2024/25 season via the relegation play-offs.
Urgent improvements are needed to change course and secure their place in the league.
