Bundesliga 26th matchday, Sunday, 16/03/2025 at 5:30 pm
The vice-champion stumbles – and the reigning champion follows suit! My VfB Stuttgart Leverkusen betting tip is still about a cracker, after all, the two best teams from the previous season are facing each other.
Now, however, it is obvious that the corners of the mouth on the left and right have recently dropped significantly.
In my analysis, I will work out why I am betting on the double chance X2 in combination with the “BTS” here. Leverkusen is one of VfB’s absolute bogey opponents; in the last 15 years, they have only won once…
The guests have to digest the Champions League exit, so I don’t expect them to arrive with pride swelling their chests. And don’t forget: in the Bundesliga, they recently suffered a surprising 2-0 defeat against Werder Bremen.
In 2024/25, both teams impressed us with top-class attacking football. In particular, VfB has not been able to live up to much of this in the current season; a real crisis has crept in.
When the kick-off takes place on Sunday evening, both teams should know: What won’t help us at all is a draw.
So I’ll now try to steer the game in the right direction and examine why VfB almost always does so badly against Leverkusen.
The betting providers’ prediction?
Our bookmakers have of course taken the terrible VfB statistics against Leverkusen into account when setting the odds. The home side almost come off well, because a win on Sunday attracts odds of 3.00.
The guests’ odds don’t look that bad, and anyone who wants to bet on Leverkusen’s success will be rewarded with an average of 2.25. Well, the Werks-Kickers have only won one of their last four games on the Neckar…
…which is simply because three of them had no winner at all! Three times in the period just considered, there was a 1-1 draw. Should we experience another draw this time, the bookies acknowledge this with odds of 3.50.
AI prediction VfB Stuttgart vs Leverkusen: ChatGPT’s picks
The AI has taken it upon itself to check this duel for a few interesting tips – but I don’t agree with all of them! In particular, the bet that carries a rather high risk is beyond me.
It reads: Stuttgart win with a HC of -1 – and that after a single (and narrow) victory since April 2010! VfB last won a home game decisively in the fall of 2006. No, I really can’t see the point of this bet at all.
What about Over 3.5 goals? That wouldn’t have applied to four of the last five direct duels in the league. But since the Swabians are struggling defensively, I can basically imagine that a lot of goals will be scored here.
In my opinion, the BTS is a ChatGPT suggestion that should fit. Twice, VfB only kept a clean sheet at home, while at Bayer, I count three away games without conceding a goal. Quick conclusion: it should work!
Analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs Leverkusen
One win since April 2010? 27 of the last 28 competitive games not won? So, ladies and gentlemen, this is what a real bogey opponent looks like! VfB Stuttgart has to play against Bayer Leverkusen on Sunday, with the emphasis clearly on the word “has to”.
Of course, we must not forget that five of the last six duels ended in a draw, and Leverkusen’s 3-2 victory, which only came about in the 90th minute, has crept in here.
So there’s no question that this duel has been damn close for a few years. Stuttgart had started the second half of their season so well, winning three times in a row and making a big step up the table.
But now a rough wind is blowing on the Neckar. One win from their last seven games, four without a win, and most recently they only drew 2-2 in Kiel – and even in the Holstein Stadium, the opponent definitely deserved the three points.
Odds analysis
Three of the last four duels on Swabian soil ended in a 1-1 draw – so it’s clear that I’m now looking at the corresponding result bet. If you are considering this result on Sunday, you could pick up odds of 6.00 at Interwetten.
VfB scored 18 of their 27 domestic goals after the break, and in seven of their last nine home games, no goals were scored in the first half. Several bets make sense here, for example, that Stuttgart will not score against Leverkusen in the first half. The odds for this are 1.70.
At the same time, you can also bet on a goal in the second half, which, curiously enough, has the same odds. Leverkusen have already scored 35 times before half-time, and have only failed to score once away from home.
In my opinion, this means that an over 1.5 goals in the first 45 minutes could still be a good idea. With odds of just under 2.50, the reward is not bad.
VfB Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen: Will VfB stumble again at home?
For the first time since the beginning of 2021, they have suffered three home defeats, the same number of defeats as Sebastian Hoeneß had previously suffered in 31 home games. 1-2 against Gladbach, 1-2 against Wolfsburg, 1-3 against Munich, and in December they lost 0-1 against St. Pauli – things are no longer going well at home.
Four times in a row, which also doesn’t read well, VfB has now squandered a lead. In this respect, the “Leverkusen win from a goal down” bet could be interesting for you, which comes with a high odds of 7.00 at Betano.
The Swabians have only played a clean sheet four times in the entire season, and in the top game against Leverkusen, Leonidas Stergiou will also be missing due to suspension. It is uncertain whether Jeff Chabot, who is ill, will be able to play again.
Sebastian Hoeneß was already active in the Bundesliga before his engagement at VfB in Hoffenheim. As a coach, he has played against Leverkusen ten times – and has not won a single game!
Leverkusen is mentally challenged
It is truly not the best prerequisite to finally break the Bayer curse. The guests would of course be quite happy if they could simply forget the past week.
First there was the completely surprising 0-2 against Werder Bremen, then they were also knocked out of the Champions League. After the 0-3 in the first leg against Bayern, the second leg was also lost 0-2, and deservedly so.
Florian Wirtz was not there, an injury to his inner ligament forces him to watch from the sidelines again this weekend. The 0:2 against Bremen was the second Bundesliga defeat this season.
After the first, a 2:3 against Leipzig, also conceded at home, Bayer won 4:1 in Hoffenheim in the following match. Is it a good omen that they are now also travelling to Baden-Württemberg?
What is also unusual from the current champions’ point of view, of course, is that they have not scored in three of their last five league games, which was also the case in the two CL round of 16 ties.
Can Leverkusen make up for the loss of Florian Wirtz? After all, 16 different players have already scored in the Bundesliga. Note: The same number applies to VfB, so together with Bayern and Frankfurt, a quartet leads this statistic.
My tip:
Will Bayer Leverkusen remain VfB Stuttgart’s nemesis? The record is truly alarming. And since the Swabians are currently in crisis, losing far too often at home, I quickly opt for the double chance X2.
Stuttgart have had their problems keeping clean sheets, managing just two in their own stadium. On the other hand, Leverkusen are coming off the back of a Champions League exit and a recent Bundesliga loss.
I therefore believe that neither VfB nor Bayer are in a great mood. Since the last few duels were all pretty close and resulted in narrow outcomes, my final tip is:
Leverkusen scores on both sides!
