Stuttgart – Mainz Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 8 on Sunday, 10/26/2025 at 5:30 p.m.
On Matchday 8 of the Bundesliga, VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05 will face off in a duel between two teams that were challenged in the European Cup during the week. The Swabians lost 0-1 to Fenerbahce, while Mainz prevailed against Mostar (1-0).
Nevertheless, I see VfB as the clear favorite in my Stuttgart Mainz prediction. The Bundesliga statistics clearly favor Stuttgart.
The Swabians have won their last four league games and are even going into the matchday in third place in the table. The tip “Stuttgart win” at odds of around 1.65 at Bet365 is a good bet.
VfB’s home strength so far also speaks in their favor. After three home games, they have nine points and a goal difference of 4:0.
Mainz, on the other hand, is struggling with major problems. The FSV has lost its last three league games. After seven match days, they are even in the relegation zone.
And it is doubtful whether the narrow Conference League victory against outsiders Mostar has actually given them new confidence.
Stuttgart – Mainz Prediction & Betting
Stuttgart has not conceded a goal in three home games. Mainz has only scored eight goals in total. Accordingly, my first betting alternative is “Mainz will not score.” The statistics support this, and the odds of just under 3.00 are excellent.
Since I expect a rather disjointed game to develop, with VfB ultimately winning by one goal in the second half, I also like the bet “Draw at halftime.” The odds here are around 2.40.
If you want to go all in, you could also consider “Half-time/Full-time Draw/Stuttgart.” The odds of around 5.00 in the Interwetten app are, in my opinion, clearly in the range of a value bet.
What you need to know about betting on Stuttgart vs. Mainz
- Stuttgart (106) is one of three Bundesliga teams that have already had over 100 shots on goal after seven match days. Only Bayern Munich (132) and RB Leipzig (111) have had more shots.
- Interestingly, Mainz’s xG value from the current game is 1.54 per 90 minutes, which is even higher than Stuttgart’s (1.38) – an indication that the Rheinhessen are quite dangerous offensively despite weaker results.
- The match between VfB Stuttgart and Mainz is one of six games (6 out of 9) on the eighth matchday of the Bundesliga for which our internal data model has predicted a goal expectation value of 3.0 or higher.
- Jamie Leweling of VfB Stuttgart is currently the only player in the Bundesliga to have recorded more than 20 runs with the ball into the final third of the pitch.
Stuttgart – Mainz: AI tip & odds analysis
Our AI model is naturally also interested in this Bundesliga match and is launching its very own Stuttgart Mainz AI prediction.
For the first tip, the AI is throwing a handicap bet into the ring. However, “Stuttgart win with a handicap of -1” at odds of around 3.00 is a step too far for me. The Swabians have been successful at home so far – but rather minimalist (two 1-0 wins).
I find the second selection much more interesting. “Stuttgart under 1.5 goals” brings a solid odds of around 2.20. Since I can very well imagine a 1-0 win for VfB, I have no objections.
And while we’re at it, the AI brings that very result bet into play as a risk tip. “1-0 for Stuttgart” is quoted at around 9.00 and is clearly based on VfB’s home results so far.
The best odds for Stuttgart vs. Mainz
The match between VfB Stuttgart and Mainz is one of six Bundesliga games this round for which our internal data model has predicted a goal expectation value of 3.0 or higher.
With an expected total xG of 3.05, the projection is almost exactly on par with the current Asian goal line of 3.0 – suggesting a 51.1% probability that the game will remain below the bookmaker’s line.
In the 1X2 market odds, Stuttgart is the clear favorite at 1.73 – despite Thursday’s defeat in the Europa League.
Mainz also saw European action, celebrating its second victory in the Conference League. A cause for concern for the visitors: they have yet to win a league game this season after a European cup appearance.
The Asian handicap market has been set at +0.75 for Mainz, which means that if Mainz avoids defeat in Stuttgart, Mainz supporters will receive the full winnings. If the team loses by one goal, half of the stake will be refunded.
In the “Anytime Goalscorer” bet, six Stuttgart players are rated lower than Mainz’s most likely goalscorer. Denis Undav leads the market as the favorite to score at any time.
Stuttgart vs Mainz Match Analysis:
The pressure on Bo Henriksen is mounting – Mainz are third from bottom in the table and now face VfB Stuttgart, who are determined to maintain their place in the top four.
Despite a weak start to the season, Mainz remains a difficult opponent. Last season, Henriksen’s team forced more mistakes from their opponents than any other team with their high pressing – and this trend is continuing.
Stuttgart must therefore be vigilant in their build-up play in order to exploit the spaces created by the visitors’ high defensive line.
The risky approach certainly helped Mainz last season, but recently their defense has looked vulnerable. With an expected goals against (xGA) value of 11.71, Mainz currently has the fifth-weakest defense in the Bundesliga.
Stuttgart are much more solid in their own defensive third and will go into the game with confidence.
The game also offers Sebastian Hoeneß’s attacking line the opportunity to make their mark again, as VfB have not shown their usual cutting edge in the final third recently.
Stuttgart form check
VfB Stuttgart are currently in excellent form and occupy third place in the Bundesliga after four consecutive wins.
Sebastian Hoeneß’s team combine attacking flair with defensive stability and have conceded only one goal in this winning streak.
Despite a disappointing 0-1 defeat to Fenerbahçe in the Europa League, Stuttgart continues to perform strongly in the league, with a clear focus on possession and control of the game. This is underlined by the fact that they have had 106 shots on goal in seven games – only Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig have had more.
VfB Stuttgart are expected to continue their strong form in the Bundesliga: efficient in the opponent’s penalty area, stable in defense and still firmly anchored in the top four.
Mainz form check
Three defeats in a row have seen Mainz slip into the relegation zone of the Bundesliga. But coach Bo Henriksen hopes that Thursday’s European victory against Zrinjski Mostar will give his team a boost – just before their clash with in-form VfB Stuttgart.
Despite a strong start to the Europa Conference League with two wins in the group stage, the team has lost stability in the league – an indication that the balancing act between the two competitions is becoming increasingly difficult.
Worrying for Mainz: The team has not won a single game this season that followed a European cup match.
On a positive note, the “expected goals” (xG) value from the current game is 1.54 per 90 minutes, showing that Mainz is certainly capable of creating chances. The problem is that Henriksen’s team is unable to convert these opportunities into goals on a regular basis – in fact, Mainz is 1.7 goals below its expected xG value.
In addition, defensive weaknesses are clearly noticeable: the team has conceded at least one goal in each of its last 18 Bundesliga games.
