Stuttgart – Union Berlin Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 18 on Sunday, 18.01.2026 at 15:30 CET
Leverkusen pulverized (4-1), Frankfurt defeated (3-2). The start to the new year could have been worse for VfB Stuttgart. Accordingly, VfB are favourites for the duel with Union Berlin at the start of the second half of the season.
However, the ratings situation is still a bit surprising. The fact that a home win by Winamax is rated at around 1.65 is rather generous in view of Stuttgart’s form. Inevitably, I assume in my Stuttgart Union Berlin tip that the Swabians will get the three points.
Of course, I’m aware that Union Berlin haven’t lost their last four Bundesliga games. However, the most recent performances against Mainz (2-2) and Augsburg (1-1) should not bring worry lines to VfB’s face.
In any case, Stuttgart can rely on their home strength. Six of the first eight league home games have been won. Before matchday 18, they are the fourth-best home team of the current season – and on course for the Champions League.
Regardless of the actual outcome of the game, you should be prepared for a rather high-scoring clash. Both Stuttgart (32-25) and Union (23-26) pursue a rather open approach to the game.
Stuttgart – Union Berlin Prediction & Betting
Even with a view to the betting alternatives, a frown about the odds is not far away. For example, the classic “Over 2.5 goals” has a strong value around 1.80. For the back of the mind: Six of the last seven VfB games have broken this mark.
And while we’re at it, we can bag the next betting classic right away. “Both teams score” also makes it to 1.80. And that’s despite the fact that Union has scored at least one goal in each of the last ten games.
As a risk tip, I would also like to recommend “Sieg Stuttgart mit Handicap -1” to you. The Swabians are brimming with self-confidence after the latest results and should be clearly superior to Union in terms of play. The odds around 2.80 could be something for an Interwetten Freebet.
What you need to know about Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin betting
- VfB Stuttgart has averaged 2.38 points per game in their own stadium this season, well above the figure for the 2024/25 season (1.35), in which only seven home games were won.
- Union Berlin has the second-best team in the league behind Hamburg when it comes to the fewest shots allowed from the penalty area (62.87 percent). In addition, the Berliners are in sixth place in terms of average shots on goal per game (4.44).
- Stuttgart have only scored seven goals in 17 games so far this season, but have shown enormous comeback qualities and have already picked up 13 points from behind – more than any other team in the Bundesliga.
- Deniz Undav is the central offensive factor of the Swabians: On average, he scores 0.93 goals per 90 minutes, a value that only Harry Kane (1.34) surpasses in the league. In addition, Undav has the most shots of all Bundesliga players with an average of 5.20 shots per game.
Stuttgart – Union Berlin: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model won’t miss the start of the second half of the Bundesliga season and has additional betting alternatives up its sleeve for you in its Stuttgart Union AI prediction.
“Win Stuttgart & Both Teams Score” is the first selection of the digital brain. The odds around 3.30 are simply excellent. Or do you think a 2-1 or 3-1 win for VfB is unrealistic?
And here we can marvel at the next great odds. The “3:1 for VfB” is rated by the bookmakers with PayPal at about 13.5. If you want to take full risk, you are well catered for.
Deniz Undav is currently in top form and is Stuttgart’s first point of contact for top-class scoring chances. Unsurprisingly, the AI also has “Undav hits” on the list, especially since the rating is scratching the 2.00 mark across the board.
The best odds for Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart go into the game as favourites thanks to their strong home form. The odds indicate that the Swabians have a chance of winning of almost 60 percent to claim their seventh Bundesliga home win at the MHP Arena.
Union Berlin, on the other hand, is only given a probability of about 20 percent for an away win by the bookmakers.
The Asian Handicap is -0.5/-1.0 in favor of VfB. For a full win in this market, Stuttgart would have to win by at least two goals, with a win by exactly one goal there would be half a win.
The goal line is set at 2.5, which should appeal to supporters of the “over” bet in particular in view of the statistical starting point. Stuttgart’s league games this season have an average of 3.35 goals per game.
According to the odds, the most likely goalscorers are Deniz Undav and Ermedin Demirovic. The Stuttgart striker duo has been in dangerous form in recent games.
Stuttgart vs Union Berlin Match Analysis:
Despite a gap of nine points in the table and different objectives, VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin are currently among the most in-form teams in the Bundesliga. This indicates an open game with numerous scoring chances on both sides.
In the last four games, both Stuttgart and Union have remained unbeaten. The hosts collected ten points, Union Berlin eight.
In this period, only FC Bayern has scored more goals than VfB: 17 goals for Munich, Stuttgart has 11. For Union Berlin, this phase also represents the best positive run of the current season.
Stuttgart are extremely stable in their own stadium and have only suffered a home defeat against Bayern so far this season. Offensively, VfB is one of the strongest teams in the league and occupies second place with an average of 5.88 shots on target per game.
For Union Berlin, who have only kept two clean sheets away from home and conceded the first goal in five of their six away games, this will be another challenging defensive test.
At the same time, however, the guests know how to defend: With only 62.87 percent of shots allowed from the penalty area, Union is the second-best team in the league in this category behind Hamburg and also ranks sixth with an average of 4.44 shots on goal per game.
Stuttgart Form Check
Substitute Nikolas Nartey scored the winner in the 87th minute as VfB Stuttgart turned around a deficit on Tuesday and celebrated a thrilling victory against top six rivals Eintracht Frankfurt. It was already Stuttgart’s sixth home win this season.
VfB are extremely strong in their own stadium: With an average of 2.38 points per home game, Stuttgart is well above the value of the 2024/25 season (1.35), in which a total of only seven home games were won.
Stuttgart stands for an attacking style of play and ranks second in the league in terms of average shots on goal per game (5.88). In addition, the team is characterized by great comeback qualities.
Although VfB have scored the first goal in just seven of their 17 games so far this season, they have already picked up 13 points from behind – more than any other Bundesliga team.
Striker Deniz Undav remains the central fixture in the attacking game. He was instrumental against Frankfurt and gave the hosts the lead in the 35th minute. Undav had seven shots on goal in the game – more than any other player – and also underlined his importance in the build-up to the game with a passing efficiency of +2.13.
On average, Deniz Undav scores 0.93 goals per 90 minutes, only behind Harry Kane (1.34) in the league. He is also the player with the most average shots per game (5.20).
Union Berlin Form Check
Marin Ljubicic’s last-minute equaliser secured Union Berlin a point against Augsburg on Thursday and extended the unbeaten streak to four games – the best positive phase of the current season.
The Köpenick team under Steffen Baumgart go into the upcoming tasks with a tailwind after the club recently extended the coach’s contract. Union Berlin is currently in a respectable ninth place in the table.
Union are stable away from home: only three defeats in the last eleven competitive games, plus an average of 1.25 points per game away from home – an increase on the average of 1.12 from the 2024/25 season.
Despite Samuel Essende’s late sending-off, Union still managed to equalise against Augsburg through Ljubicic. It was already the fifth game in a row in which a substitute scored – further proof of the depth in the squad and a valuable point for Baumgart’s team.
Recently, Union Berlin also impressed with defensive stability and clear organisation, allowing only 0.5 expected goals against Augsburg.
Accordingly, it is not surprising that the team is one of the best in the league in terms of xG value from the game and has the fifth-best value with an average of 1.18 xG allowed per game.
