Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 4 on Friday, 09/19/2025 at 8:30 p.m.
Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli – what under normal circumstances would appear to be a duel between a European Cup contender and a relegation candidate is taking place under very special circumstances on Matchday 4 of the new Bundesliga season.
The Hamburg team has gotten off to an excellent start, while VfB’s engine is stuttering.
In my Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli prediction, I am therefore steering clear of a dominant performance by the Swabians and instead considering the “both teams to score” bet at strong odds of around 1.70 at Betano.
It sounds strange, but it’s true: in the current season, only four teams have scored more goals than FC St. Pauli.
Yes, VfB Stuttgart won the cup last season. However, the Swabians couldn’t be really satisfied with the development of VfB.
The team fell short of expectations in the league (9th place) and, after the departure of Nick Woltemade, is once again facing a new beginning in its offensive play.
Stuttgart have not yet hit their stride. After three match days, they have only scored three goals. Bets that assume a goal fest for Stuttgart are therefore out of the question for my Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli prediction.
Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli prediction & bets
I would even go so far as to limit Stuttgart’s goal tally to a maximum of one goal in my betting alternatives. The bet “Stuttgart under 1.5 goals” has odds of around 2.05 in the Bwin app. Don’t forget: this selection would have been successful in the first three match days.
As a safety-first approach, I have also selected the tip “St. Pauli to score.” With odds just below 1.50, you can’t really go wrong. Pauli has scored in eleven of its last twelve games. Why should you come away empty-handed against a struggling Stuttgart team?
In fact, I also have an exact result in mind for this match. The “1:1 result bet” has lucrative odds of around 7.90. A hint: Pauli’s last away game (a test match against Kiel) ended with exactly that result.
What you need to know about betting on Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli
- Stuttgart scored an average of 2.29 goals per game in the 2023/24 Bundesliga season and finished the season as runners-up. Since then, their offensive performance has deteriorated significantly: last season, VfB scored only 1.81 times per game, finishing in a disappointing ninth place.
- St. Pauli games, meanwhile, are the lowest-scoring in the Bundesliga. Since the start of last season, games involving the Kiezkickers have averaged just 2.16 goals – the lowest in the league.
- In six of St. Pauli’s last ten away games, at least one team failed to score. The “Both teams to score – No” bet also paid off in both games against Stuttgart in the 2024/25 season.
- Jamie Leweling is a ray of hope for VfB. The winger has scored one goal and provided three assists in five competitive games so far this season. Over the past twelve months, his assist average is 0.21 per 90 minutes.
Stuttgart – St. Pauli: AI tip & odds analysis
Our in-house AI model is of course not to be outdone on the 4th matchday of the Bundesliga and presents its very own Stuttgart St. Pauli AI prediction. However, I do not agree with the first selection.
The digital brain has placed a 1×2 bet and selected “Stuttgart win.” Statistically, however, this favorite bet at Winamax with odds of around 1.75 is on shaky ground.
St. Pauli has not lost a single game this season. In addition, VfB lost twice in the first three match days. So will the match be more exciting than the bookmakers predict? With the right DAZN package, you won’t miss a thing and can see for yourself.
The second AI selection, “Double chance 1X & under 1.5 goals,” is also rather risky. I can still get used to “DC 1X” because I would bet on a draw myself. However, the addition of “Under 1.5 Goals” raises questions.
This line has been broken in 5 of the last 6 Pauli games. At least the odds for the combination selection are excellent at around 5.30.
The AI’s third selection is interesting. The “draw at halftime” has odds of around 2.30 and is a good bet given the starting position. Stuttgart, the struggling favorite, faces the surprise team of the first match days. Is a 1-1 score at halftime completely unrealistic?
The best odds for Stuttgart vs. St. Pauli
Noteworthy: The odds for the match between Stuttgart and St. Pauli have remained largely stable despite the recent results of both teams.
The Reds remain the clear favorites going into the game – the odds have fallen slightly to 1.70, which corresponds to an implied probability of victory of 58.8%. Our in-house prediction model is even more optimistic, giving Stuttgart a 65.8% chance of winning.
However, the odds hardly reflect the current form of both teams. Stuttgart were already in a similar odds range in their away game against Union Berlin – a game they lost 1-2, as we all know. The data suggests that the classic 1X2 market should be treated with caution in this case.
The goal bets, which are above the usual Bundesliga level, are more interesting. The odds for “Both teams to score – Yes” are a solid 1.75. Given St. Pauli’s recent offensive strength, this tip seems quite playable despite the low-scoring head-to-head matches.
The over/under mark of 2.5 goals, on the other hand, presents a greater challenge. A clear 3-0 win for either side seems rather unrealistic based on the underlying data.
Stuttgart’s poor form is unlikely to be remedied in a single game – despite the comparatively low odds of 1.72 for “Over 2.5 goals,” the opposite option offers more value with odds of 2.05.
The Asian handicap market also promises excitement. The line is -0.75 in favor of VfB. A narrow victory with only a one-goal difference would return at least half of the stake to bettors on Stuttgart.
Those betting on St. Pauli can expect a handicap of +0.75 – in the event of a draw, the bet would be won in full. Given the expected close game, the Kiezkickers could be the better choice here.
Stuttgart vs St. Pauli match analysis:
St. Pauli won 1-0 away at VfB Stuttgart last season. Johannes Eggestein scored the only goal of the game in the 21st minute. Despite the close result, the game had a remarkably high expected goals (xG) value of 4.15.
Stuttgart took revenge in the return match. Nick Woltemade, now under contract with Newcastle, scored the decisive goal in the Swabians’ 1-0 home win.
Once again, a number of chances went unused: Sebastian Hoeneß’s team created seven so-called “big chances,” while St. Pauli only managed one shot on goal.
Since the start of the 2010/11 season, the two teams have met nine times. Stuttgart has won seven of those games, with St. Pauli winning only one. On average, VfB has scored 1.56 goals per game and conceded only 0.56. Only four of these encounters took place in the Bundesliga.
Stuttgart form check
VfB Stuttgart certainly imagined a very different start to the new Bundesliga season. After one win and two defeats, the Swabians are stuck in mid-table ahead of matchday 3.
Their meager offensive output is particularly striking. With only three goals scored, VfB has one of the most harmless attacks in the early stages of the season. It’s fair to say that the Swabians are having major problems compensating for the departure of Nick Woltemade.
However, it cannot be said that the problems have come completely out of the blue. After all, VfB was already one of the disappointments of the previous season. After finishing as runners-up in 2023/24, they only managed ninth place the following year – 32 points behind champions Bayern.
A victory against FC St. Pauli is therefore not exactly on the Bundesliga horizon, especially since VfB was certainly not a force to be reckoned with at home last season. They won just 7 of their 17 home games.
St. Pauli form check
The mood at FC St. Pauli is completely different. The Hamburg team is the surprise team of the early season and, after three match days, is almost sensationally in fourth place in the table.
Particularly noteworthy is St. Pauli’s new accuracy in front of goal. In the previous season, they were by far the weakest offensive team in the Bundesliga, scoring only 28 goals. The fact that they ultimately stayed in the league was solely thanks to their stable defense (41 goals conceded).
This season, however, everything is different. On the one hand, the Kiez club already has seven goals to its name after three games. On the other hand, on the first match day, they played a 3-3 draw against BVB, which was an unusual exchange of blows for Pauli by their standards.
It would therefore be grossly negligent to describe FC St. Pauli as a hopeless underdog ahead of their match against Stuttgart. The fact that the Hamburg team has lost only one of its last twelve games is anything but a coincidence.
