Who are the 2024 Tour de France favorites?
The Tour de France betting odds and Tour predictions point to a showdown of superlatives: Jonas Vingegaard (winner of the last two years) against Tadej Pogacar (triumphant in 2020 and 2021, and runner-up in 2022 and 2023).
Will it be another duel for yellow or are there other favorites for the Tour victory in 2024?
Tour de France favorites prediction 2024
A four-way battle for the yellow jersey is on the cards for the 2024 Tour de France. The four best cyclists of the moment are at the start of this year’s Tour of France.
They are Jonas Vingegaard (Tour champion for the last two years), Tadej Pogacar (winner in 2020 and 2021 and most recently runner-up twice), Primoz Roglic (three-time Vuelta winner, Giro winner in 2023 and Tour runner-up in 2020) and Remco Evenepoel (Vuelta winner in 2022).
However, there is no big but: Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel crashed heavily at the Tour of the Basque Country in April and some of them had to take a long break. The question is: How fit is this trio for the 2024 Tour?
Will Vingegaard, Roglic and Evenepoel still be among the 2024 Tour de France favorites, who could still ride for the yellow jersey or will it be a solo for Tadej Pogacar?
The yellow jersey chances of the Tour de France favorites
- Tadej Pogacar (SLO/UAE-Team) ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
- Jonas Vingegaard (DEN/Jumbo) ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
- Primoz Roglic (SLO/Red Bull-Bora) ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
- Remoc Evenepoel (BEL/Soudal Quick-Step) ⭐️⭐️⭐️
- Simon Yates (GBR/Team Jayco-AlUla) ⭐️⭐️⭐️
- Carlos Rodriguez (ESP/Ineos) ⭐️⭐️⭐️
- Egan Bernal (COL/Ineos) ⭐️⭐️
- Felix Gall (AUT/Decathlon-ag2r) ⭐️⭐️
- Bello Bilbao (ESP/Bahrain Victorious) ⭐️
Tadej Pogacar, the number 1 among the Tour favorites 2024
In 2020, the then 21-year-old Slovenian rode his first Tour and immediately scored big: Tadej Pogacar became the second youngest winner in Tour history. He also won the mountains classification and the jersey for the best young rider. He won the yellow jersey again in 2021. He narrowly missed out on the hat-trick in 2022 with second place. “Pogi” also came second in the previous year.
In other words: in four starts, Pogacar has always finished on the podium with two wins and two second places and has never finished lower than second!
In view of the Tour de France 2024 favorites forecast, this series is likely to continue this year. What’s more, anything other than a victory would be a surprise. Before the start of the Tour, Pogacar is considered the hottest bet to win among the Tour 2024 favorites
Pogacar is an outstanding climber, very strong in time trials, he can ride “classics stages” and he also rides tactically very cleverly in the peloton on flat stages. In addition, “Pogi” has a well-coordinated team that works exclusively for him.
Added to this is his strong form. In contrast to last year, when he crashed in the spring and was unable to train for weeks with a wrist injury and therefore didn’t arrive at the Tour in top form, this year he came through without any problems – and will compete in top condition.
The only question mark in Pogacar’s Tour winner prognosis: How much Giro is left in his body?
Pogacar rode the Giro d’Italia in May and won it. Now he could be the first since Marco Pantani in 1998 to win the double of the Giro and Tour
Jonas Vingegaard – number 1 Tour favorite 2023
2021 Jonas Vingegaard was the big surprise of the Tour of France. The Dane, who worked in your fish factory in the early days of his career, finished second overall behind Tadej Pogacar. Vingegaard stepped in when his captain Primoz Roglic had to withdraw due to injury.
It was also a changing of the guard in the Jumbo team, which was finally completed in 2022: Vingegaard won the Tour de France – well ahead of Pogacar. This picture was repeated the previous year: Vingegaard won again ahead of Pogacar. And with a lead of 7:29 minutes!
In view of his CV, it is all too logical that Vingegaard is one of the Tour 2024 favorites – had it not been for his serious crash at the Tour of the Basque Country in April: collarbone and several ribs broken, plus a bruised lung.
Training or building up form for the Tour was out of the question for weeks. Not again until May. Nevertheless, the 27-year-old Dane is competing.
Is he one of the 2024 Tour de France favorites? According to the Tour predictions of the experts and the Tour betting odds of the best betting providers in Germany, Vingegaard is a favorite for the yellow jersey
Basically, because the overall package is right: Vingegaard is an absolute mountain specialist (especially in the high mountains), an outstanding time trialist (time trial stage win at last year’s Tour) and he can also rely on perhaps the strongest team in the peloton.
The psychological component could also speak in favor of the Dane in another Vingegaard vs Pogacar duel.
Vingegaard has won the last two Tour duels, and very clearly at that. In 2022 he won by 2:43 minutes over Pogacar, last year the gap was 7:29 minutes at the end. Especially in the time trial, “Vinge” literally destroyed his eternal rival, and before that he had also been left behind on the climbs a few times
Who will win the Tour 2024 – perhaps Primoz Roglic?
In 2020, it looked like Prmoz Roglic would go down in Tour de France history as the first Slovenian Tour de France winner – and as a former ski jumper!
But in the end, he only finished in second place – because Pogacar snatched the yellow jersey from him in the time trial on the penultimate stage. Roglic wanted to fight back in 2021, but a crash forced him to abandon. After abandoning the Tour of France last year, Roglic will attack again this year.
Is Roglic one of the Tour de France favorites for 2024?
Roglic is one of the best cyclists of our time. He won the Vuelta Espana three times in a row from 2019 to 2021 and won the Giro d’Italia in 2023. He is therefore only missing a Tour victory in his collection to have won each of the three Grand Tours once
With his qualities, the 33-year-old Slovenian from the new Red Bull-Bora team is definitely very well placed to win this year’s Tour: he is a world-class time trialist (2021 Olympic time trial gold medal), very strong in the mountains and also copes well on hilly terrain.
The bookmakers are also giving the captain of the Bora team a very good chance of overall victory in their Tour de France bets before the start of the Grande Boucle.
Although he was also one of the prominent crash victims in the Tour of the Basque Country, unlike Vingegaard he got off lightly with bruises. His form should be good, as Roglic won the Criterium Dauphine, the Tour dress rehearsal. He also won two stages and took the points classification.
Roglic also has a strong team behind him. His most important helper is Jay Hindley, who rode in the yellow jersey last year after winning a stage and finished 7th overall
Tour winner odds for Remco Evenepoel
Remco Evenepoel is one of the top talents in Belgian cycling and has the best chances of winning the Tour de France. But will this be the case this year?
Evenepoel appears high up on the list of Tour de France 2024 favorites before the start of the Tour – but behind the top trio of Vingegaard, Pogacar and Roglic.
Evenepoel proved that he can win a three-week tour by winning the Vuelta Espana in 2022. He has also won smaller tours such as the Tour of Catalonia (2023) and this year’s Tour of the Algarve.
Not many would have thought him capable of winning the Tour in 2024, but Evenepoel also crashed in the Basque Country in April. His shoulder blade and collarbone were broken. Like Vingegaard, he also had to take weeks off.
Whether Evenepoel is one of the Tour favorites for 2024 will only become clear during the race. As time trial world champion, he is one of the best in the battle against the clock and Belgium’s hope for the future is also very good in the mountains – but is he as good as Roglic and Vingegaard?
His shortcoming compared to the Tour top favorites Vingegaard and Pogacar is the team. His team is nominally not as strong as those of Jumbo and UAE and has been “polarized” for years on classics and sprint victories
More Tour de France favorites 2024
Who else is among the Tour de France 2024 favorites – apart from last year’s winner Vingegaard, two-time champion Pogacar and the two co-favorites Roglic and Evenepoel?
Carlos Rodriguez could be the first Spaniard to win the yellow jersey since Alberto Contador in 2015. The 23-year-old Spaniard from the Ineos team is definitely expected to make it big.
Before the start of the Tour, the youngster is among the extended circle of Tour 2024 favorites. Last year, Rodriguez finished in 5th place in the overall standings.
However, he has a strong team-mate in Egan Bernal (COL), who could also lay claim to the captain’s role in the Ineos team. As the 2019 Tour winner, he also knows how to bring the yellow jersey to the finish.
Last year, Simon Yates only just missed out on the podium in fourth place, and the Brit from the Jayco Alula team is also one of the promising candidates for the podium this year. He showed that he can win a three-week tour at the 2018 Vuelta.
His twin brother Adam Yates wore the yellow jersey for four days last year and finished third overall. However, “AY” is the noble helper of Tadej Pogacar in the UAE team and will probably only be one of the real Tour favorites if Pogacar should weaken, lose a lot of time or even abandon.
Felix Gall is another Austrian on the list of Tour de France favorites for 2024. Gall won a stage last year and ended up in 8th place in the overall standings. Can he go even further this year and is he a contender for the podium or even the yellow jersey?
The captain of the Decathlon AG2R team is very strong on the climbs, but he has his weaknesses compared to the big Tour favorites in the time trial. This could make itself felt on the final stage at the latest
Teams and participants in the Tour de France 2024
- Alpecin-Deceuninck (Belgium)
- Arkéa-B&B Hotels (France)
- Astana Qazaqstan Team (Kazakhstan)
- Bahrain Victorious (Bahrain)
- Cofidis (France)
- Decathlon-ag2r (France)
- EF Education-EasyPost (USA)
- Groupama-FDJ (France)
- Ineos Grenadiers (Great Britain)
- Intermarché-Wanty (Belgium)
- Israel-Premier Tech (Israel)
- Lidl-Trek (USA)
- Lotto Dstny (Belgium)
- Movistar Team (Spain)
- Red-Bull-Bora-hansgrohe (Germany)
- Soudal Quick-Step (Belgium)
- Team dsm-firmenich-PostNL (Netherlands)
- Team Jayco-AlUla (Australia)
- Team Visma | Lease a Bike (Netherlands)
- TotalEnergies (France)
- UAE Team Emirates (UAE)
- Uno-X Mobility (Norway)
176 riders in 22 teams will take part in the Tour de France 2024, with each team providing eight riders
The stage schedule of the Tour de France 2024
- Stage 1 – 29.06.: Florence – Rimini (206 km)
- Stage 2 – 30.06.: Cesenatico – Bologna (200 km)
- Stage 3 – 01.07.: Piacenza – Turin (229 km)
- Stage 4 – 02.07.: Pinerolo – Valloire (138 km)
- 5th stage – 03.07.: St. Jean-de-Maurienne – St. Vulbas (177 km)
- 6th stage – 04.07.: Mâcon – Dijon (163 km)
- 7th stage – 05.07.: Nuits-St. Georges – Gevrey-Chambertin (25.3)
- 8th stage – 06.07.: Semur-en-Auxois – Colombey Deux Églises (183.4 km)
- Stage 9 – 07.07.: Troyes – Troyes (199 km)
- Stage 10 – 09.07.: Orléans – St. Amand-Montrond (187.3 km)
- 11th stage – 10.07.: Évaux-les-Bains – Super Lioran (211 km)
- 12th stage – 11.07.: Aurillac – Villeneuve-sur-Lot (204 km)
- 13th stage – 12.07.: Agen – Pau (171 km)
- 14th stage – 13.07.: Pau – Pla d’Adet (152 km)
- 15th stage – 14.07.: Loudenvielle – Plateau de Beille (198 km)
- 16th stage – 16.07.: Gruissan – Nîmes (187 km)
- 17th stage – 17.07.: St-Paul-Trois-Châteaux – SuperDévoluy (178 km)
- 18th stage – 18.07.: Gap – Barcelonnette (179 km)
- Stage 19 – 19.07.: Embrun – Isola 2000 (145 km)
- 20th stage – 20.07.: Nice – Col de la Couillole (133 km)
- 21st stage – 23.07.: Monaco-City – Nice (34 km)
A total of 3492 kilometers are on the Tour de France 2024 stage schedule.
For the first time in its history, the Tour will start in Italy – it is the 26th time that the Tour has started abroad.
And for the first time, the Tour of France will finish in Nice rather than Paris. The reason for the postponement of the last stage is the Summer Olympics, which begin five days after the end of the Tour in Paris.
The last of the 21 Tour stages will not only end in Nice, but will also feature an individual time trial. For the Tour de France 2024 favorites, this is where it will be decided who wins the Tour this year!
The last time there was a battle against the clock on the final stage was in 1989, when Greg LeMond won the Tour by just eight seconds ahead of Frenchman Laurent Fignon – the closest victory in the history of the Tour to date.
The stages of the Tour de France 2024 are divided into:
- 8 flat stages
- 4 hilly stages
- 7 mountain stages (including four mountain finishes)
- 2 individual time trials
The queen stage of the Tour 2024 leads on the 15th stage on July 14 from Loudenvielle to Plateau de Beille – with 198 kilometers and a total of 4800 meters of altitude.
The riders will reach the so-called “Roof of the Tour de France” on the 19th stage on July 19. The peloton will climb the Cime de la Bonette in the Alps, which at 2802 meters is not only the highest point of the Tour 2024, but also the highest asphalt road in France.
