AFCON Qualifier, Matchday 1, Thursday, 05.09.2024 at 21:00
International matches are played during the week in Europe and on the Black Continent. While these are more like “tournament-style test matches” in Europe, they are much more important in Africa.
The winners of the preliminary round qualify directly for the next edition of the Africa Cup of Nations. According to my Tunisia Madagascar betting tip, it will be a tough affair on matchday 1 of Group A with a better outcome for the home side
The “Eagles of Carthage” have regrouped under Faouzi Benzarti after their poor performance at the Africa Cup of Nations 2023. The coach is focusing on a fresh start to get Tunisia back on track.
You have to know: This team has potential, even if it has weakened recently.
Meanwhile, you could consider whether a sports betting bonus would be just the thing for you to cushion the risk of your bets with free outside capital
Madagascar, a small soccer nation, surprisingly managed to qualify for the AFCON finals for the first time in 2019. This was a sensational success that shows that the “Barea” are definitely good for surprises (albeit very rarely).
But be aware: it has been downhill ever since. In the last Africa Cup qualifiers, they clearly failed with three draws and three defeats. Unfortunately, this form does not speak well for the island nation.
So if you want to bet on Madagascar, you need to keep a clear eye on the risk. The odds are against them and their form in recent matches against stronger nations is worrying.
Especially as they hardly have any players in their ranks who earn their money at major European professional clubs.
The bookmakers clearly see the hosts as favorites: With odds of 1.22, a TUN victory is almost certain. That corresponds to a probability of almost 82%.
A draw is much less likely with odds of 5.00, but is at least still within the realms of possibility. Here, the betting providers estimate the probability at around 20%.
A win for the team from Madagascar, i.e. “Les Barea”, on the other hand, is rated as almost impossible with odds of 13.0. The probability of this happening is less than 8%.
The Tunisia Madagascar betting odds are therefore clear: the first victory of the visitors over the Eagles of Carthage seems to be ruled out on the markets.
Unbelievable: If you want to play it safe, then the “Under 2.5 goals” bet could be a good option for you. The Tunisians have never scored more than 2.5 goals in their last 10 matches.
With excellent odds of 1.80, this is a solid choice for a defensive-oriented match.
For those of you who believe in a real surprise, on the other hand, a targeted 0-0 result bet could be interesting.
After all, half of Tunisia’s last 10 games have ended goalless, and Madagascar could try to pin the “Eagles of Carthage” in their own half of the pitch.
Even though I’m personally rather skeptical, this bet could be lucrative given the numbers and odds
Another consideration: Madagascar have scored just one goal in six group games in AFCON qualifying.
The current Tunisia Madagascar odds show that a win for the North Africans on Thursday without conceding a goal (odds: 1.75) is a lucrative option for those of you who want to trust the fairly reliable Tunisian defense.
On the other hand, if you look at the direct comparison, things look pretty bleak for Madagascar. The “Barea” have never beaten Tunisia. In the three encounters so far, they have mostly conceded clear defeats, 1:0, 2:0 and 3:0 respectively.
It is also interesting to note that Madagascar have never scored a goal in any of these matches. This suggests that Tunisia are well-positioned defensively and effectively defend against Madagascar’s attacks. This trend could well continue in the upcoming duel.
Tunisia are unfortunately missing two important players: Elias Saad from FC St. Pauli and Bassem Srarfi, both injured. This could weaken the offensive power somewhat, so think carefully about how you place your bets.
The Eagles of Carthage lack big names in defense and forward anyway, which could possibly be a weak point.
Nevertheless, with Ellyes Skhiri from FC Köln, they have a real string-puller in midfield who can steer the game. Watch out for this when you place your bets
Madagascar has only a few names that soccer connoisseurs might have on their radar. Rayan Raveloson and Sonny Laiton both earn their money at Sochaux. They are among the better-known faces in the team.
The rest of the team tends to play in weaker European leagues. It is also interesting that Sandro Trémoulet, Nicolas Fontaine and Johan N’ZI have been nominated for the first time.
This could be a chance to breathe new life into the team, but it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to stand up to Tunisia.
My final assessment is clear: Tunisia win by zero. Even if the “Eagles of Carthage” don’t have the big names in their squad, it will be enough against Madagascar.
As my Tunisia Madagascar prediction shows, the visitors are likely to hold out for a long time and possibly save the 0:0 into the second half.
But by then at the latest, the North Africans should have the home crowd behind them to seal the deal.
In any case, the previous duels and Madagascar’s weak offense strongly suggest that TUN is defensively secure and will win the game without conceding a goal
