Bundesliga Matchday 8, Sunday, 27.10.2024 at 17:30
The mood at the Alte Försterei is glorious. Union Berlin have lost just one game in seven matchdays and have made the second-best start to a Bundesliga season in the club’s history with 14 points.
At home, the Irons are, one might almost say finally, a force again. They have won every home game so far, even beating BVB 2:1.
The atmosphere around Eintracht Frankfurt is not much worse either. The Hessians have adapted their playful approach compared to the previous season and have celebrated early successes as a result.
The course of the match is not too easy to predict, as both teams have largely developed an aversion to long periods of possession.
Frankfurt (40.3 percent) and Union Berlin (41.5 percent) are ranked in the bottom four teams in this category among all Bundesliga clubs. At least one of the two representatives will go against their nature.
In the end, my decision for the Union Berlin Frankfurt betting tip at Bwin fell on odds of 1.78 for “Over 2.5 goals”.
The bookmakers’ forecast?
The bookmakers are finding it difficult to assess this pairing. There is no real favorite on the market, so a sports bet with cash out could be helpful.
Union Berlin have won every Bundesliga home game so far this season (3) and are priced at odds of around 2.60 to win.
Frankfurt didn’t play the kind of soccer they wanted to during the week, but ultimately came away with a win against Riga (1:0). If a three-pointer follows at the Alte Försterei, you can win 2.80 times your stake in some cases.
KI prediction Union Berlin vs Frankfurt: This is what ChatGPT
As possible alternatives, I asked Chat-GPT for three betting options for this pairing and received tips with varying degrees of risk.
The artificial intelligence chose the entry carefully and still surprised me a little. Betano offers odds of 1.53 for the proposed “Double chance X2”. Given the current form of the hosts, I would have gone a different way.
However, Chat-GPT remains completely on the same path and sees the eagles clearly ahead. The “double chance” is shortened to one possibility, namely “Frankfurt win”. NEO.bet upgrades the odds to 2.74. However, you should bear in mind that Köpenick have won two of their last three Bundesliga home games against Frankfurt.
As a final hint with the highest risk, the AI has again switched to a match combination and added “Both teams to score” to “Frankfurt to win”. If it is to be a win for the visitors, I think the “BTS” variant is not bad, because the SGE has already allowed 13.2 expected goals (13th). Bet365 gives odds of over 5.00 in this case.
Analysis: Union Berlin vs Frankfurt
I’m a little surprised that the AI rules out a win for the Iron in all three variants. For me, the winner of this game is, as indicated in the odds, quite open and partly dependent on the course of the game.
Both teams refuse to control the game through possession. Who can impose their will at the end of the match is completely open.
Counter-attacking is of enormous importance for SGE this season, but Union Berlin hardly give their rivals any opportunities to switch. In an emergency, they simply resort to fouls and regroup. At 14.1 fouls per game, Union commit the most unfair tackles in the Bundesliga.
In terms of form, however, the Eagles probably have the best striker in the Bundesliga. Omar Marmoush is currently top of the goalscoring charts (9) and can also score from impossible angles at the moment.
In their last two home games, the Iron have been unable to prevent a goal from being conceded. Frankfurt only failed to score on the first matchday and then scored “Over 1.5 goals” in five out of six matches.
If you still trust the Hessians and their determined attacking line, you are welcome to take a chance on “Frankfurt over 1.5 goals” and the odds of 2.30 with this Oddset bonus.
Furthermore, goals are quite likely on both sides despite Union Berlin’s strong defense. Frankfurt have only managed to prevent a goal against in one league match.
Ratings analysis
Two Bundesliga teams that have got off to a fantastic start will go head-to-head on Sunday. In my opinion, the choice of winning odds has been successful, as there really is no clear favorite.
As far as the choice for my Union Berlin Frankfurt betting tip is concerned, the following should be mentioned: Two of three home games of the Iron ended with “Over 2.5 goals”, as did three of the four guest appearances of Eintracht Frankfurt.
Frankfurt travels to the Alte Försterei with the third best attacking line in the Bundesliga (15 goals), but has also conceded more than twice as many goals in defense (11) as Union Berlin (4).
“Both teams to score” is definitely in the draw, but with odds of just under 1.70, it should be more of a supplementary option for a match combination of your choice.
Union Berlin vs Frankfurt odds: The wish is for an open field
Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt cover 2.1 meters per second in possession – only Heidenheim (2.2) and Bochum (2.3) switch faster.
Compared to all teams in the top five European leagues, SGE launched the most counter-attacks (18), scored the second most shots (14) and scored the most counter-attacking goals (6).
Due to their style of play, both teams prefer to wait for their opponents to make mistakes, which can lead to a quick transition game in direct duels.
The Köpenickers have yet to score a counter-attacking goal, but many important set-pieces have resulted from their transitional moments. These are once again the staple of the Union attack, which is the only Bundesliga team to have scored half of its goals from a resting ball (4/8).
On the trail of Anthony Yeboah
Dino Toppmöller can rely completely on the individual class of his players in attack. One name in particular has spread fear and terror in the opposition’s backline so far.
Omar Marmoush is currently the Bundesliga’s top scorer with nine goals this season. Only one other player in the Eagles’ kit has ever scored nine goals after seven matchdays: Anthony Yeboah.
Compared to the other top five European leagues, only Robert Lewandowski (14) has been directly involved in more goals than SGE’s lightning-quick striker (13).
The Hesse attacker can therefore be expected to score one goal, if not more, against the Bundesliga’s third-best defense (6.3 xGA).
Dino Toppmöller’s 4-4-2 system has been handing out invitations to the opposition by the dozen. 13.2 goals conceded (13th) and the most shots allowed by opponents (135) should also be enough for the home side.
What Frankfurt must be prepared for in any case is a match of maximum intensity. Union Berlin have made the third most intensive runs so far (5138), won the second most duels (724) and the most headers (162).
Without a fight, it cannot work for the SGE against the home side. What’s more, the hosts have won six of the last eight meetings in this fixture.
However, Dino Toppmöller’s team can score points with an outstanding shooting conversion rate (16.1 percent). Union Berlin are much more wasteful in this regard (9.4 per cent).
The first half has been the territory of the Iron, who are the only Bundesliga team yet to concede a goal before the break.
Frankfurt, however, are holding firm with a run of their own. In their six previous Bundesliga games, SGE have always scored at least one goal before half-time.
My Union Berlin Frankfurt betting tip:
In this pairing, I expect a fast-paced game, with lots of possession changes and scoring chances on both sides.
Frankfurt have always filled the previous matchdays with highlights and provided the viewers of Sportschau with an average of 3.71 goals in the games.
Union have also been no pushovers at home, reaching my target of “over 2.5 goals” in at least the two previous home games.
My Union Berlin Frankfurt tip: At least three goals will be scored
