Bundesliga match day 22, Saturday, 2025-02-15, 3:30 p.m.
The signing of Steffen Baumgart has paid off for Union Berlin. The Berliners have only lost one of their last four Bundesliga matches (0-3 to St. Pauli).
On the last matchday, the practiced offensive mechanisms worked, enabling them to score a 4-0 away win at Hoffenheim. For the first time this season, the Irons scored more than two goals in a game.
Cautious optimism is also spreading among the Foals, who are now just two points away from European places. The first half hour of the last game against Frankfurt (1-1) was highlighted by more than a few as the best 30 minutes of BMG this season.
Both teams will take to the pitch at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei with a similarly positive mood and should be able to entertain the spectators. For my Union Berlin Gladbach betting tip, I am looking very closely at the starting lineup of the guests. Florian Neuhaus made the best possible use of his first starting lineup last weekend and provided sufficient arguments for being nominated again in the starting lineup.
Together with Julian Weigl and Kevin Stöger, the creative potential in the center of the Foals is immensely high and makes me feel positive.
The construction sites in the BMG back line also contribute to my bet on “Over 2.5 goals”, which I play at Interwetten for odds of 1.80.
The betting providers’ prediction?
The Irons attach great importance to home games. Union Berlin have so far won twice as many points at home (16) as away (8). In their last two home games at the Alte Försterei, the Berliners picked up four out of a possible six points (against Mainz and RB Leipzig).
From this perspective, the distribution of roles among the best betting providers definitely makes sense. The hosts are being offered win odds of around 2.30, which indicates that they are in a better position.
Gladbach have recently scored points away from home, winning two of their last four away appearances. Their most recent away win at VfB Stuttgart was particularly impressive. Nevertheless, the role of the underdog and victory odds of up to 3.10 belong to the team from the Lower Rhine region.
AI-Prediction Union Berlin vs Gladbach: That’s what ChatGPT tips
At home, the Berliners have only lost two out of ten Bundesliga encounters this season. The artificial intelligence is convinced by a low-risk bet on “Double Chance 1X”, for which you get odds of 1.39 at Bwin.
I am surprised by the second AI prediction. Not because I think it’s absurd, but because it’s one of the rare cases where my Union Berlin Gladbach tip and ChatGPT’s opinion are in complete agreement. “Over 2.5 goals” is the call and Interwetten is the favored provider with odds of 1.80.
You will find much more risk in the third betting variant from the artificial intelligence. There, a win bet is combined with a goal scorer. “Union Berlin win & Benedict Hollerbach scores” is available at LeoVegas for odds of 6.75. Hollerbach is the hosts’ top scorer (6 goals), but I wouldn’t necessarily bet on a home win.
Analysis: Union Berlin vs Gladbach
Fire away for the greatest possible crossing spectacle of this Bundesliga season. Steffen Baumgart has been known for his extreme crossing focus for quite some time. The Foals have a similar style and create 72 percent of their offensive actions on the wings.
Together with Bayern, Gladbach scored the most headed goals of the season (9), with six of them scored by Tim Kleindienst. I expect particularly exciting aerial duels in the Eisernen’s box between Kleindienst (1.94 m), Danilo Doekhi (1.90 m) and Diogo Leite (1.90 m).
In the foals’ squad, I find enough players who, thanks to their high footballing intelligence, can shake the hosts’ defensive structure.
At the same time, the guests do not have good defensive values and have allowed the second-most expected goals of all Bundesliga clubs (39.03 xGA). My thoughts are strongly leaning towards a high-scoring game.
Odds analysis
Over the last three matchdays, only Bayern (9) have collected more points than Borussia Mönchengladbach (7). Gerardo Seoane and his team are now close to the European places.
In addition, the team from the Lower Rhine region has already won the first-half duel against the Berliners (1-0), and there can be no talk of a real away weakness either. Borussia has already recorded more away wins (3) than in the entire previous season (2).
Offensively, the guests are much stronger than Union Berlin, which is why I can imagine betting on a “Gladbach win (DNB)”. This is available in the Bet365 app at odds of 2.20.
Union Berlin vs. Gladbach: In the footsteps of Koller and Modeste
The sensational story of Tim Kleindienst continues. The DFB striker scored his 13th goal of the season last weekend, making him successful in all four second-half games.
After a pinpoint cross from Florian Neuhaus, the center forward headed the ball into the net with clinical precision – his sixth headed goal this season and the highest among all outfield players.
The attack of the foals is precisely tailored to Kleindienst’s strengths. 72 percent of the attacks are launched from the wings and 61 percent of the goals are prepared from the wings.
Since data has been intensively maintained (2004/2005), there have only been two Bundesliga professionals who have scored more headed goals at this point in a season – Jan Koller (7) and Anthony Modeste (9).
How much artistic license is allowed?
Last weekend, Gerardo Seoane fielded what is arguably the strongest midfield of the season in terms of playmaking ability. In addition to captain Julian Weigl, Florian Neuhaus was allowed to start for the first time. In front of them, Kevin Stöger showed off his skill on the ball.
All of them have their strengths going forward, but deficits in speed and work against the ball. The question for Seoane is whether he would rather maximize his team’s strengths and take on the challenge of defending collectively.
Gladbach has allowed the second-most expected goals of all Bundesliga teams against them (39.03 xGA) and, after Kiel (362), the most shots on goal (327).
In return, only four teams have scored more expected goals (31.95 xG) and taken more shots on goal (104) than the foals.
Helpful for my Union Berlin Gladbach tip is the danger that both teams pose by their own standards.
Only Wolfsburg (14) and VfB Stuttgart (12) have celebrated more often after a stationary ball than Gladbach (10).
Union Berlin also indicated great potential in this discipline with the third-most goals to be expected based on their own offensive standards (8.11 xG).
No Bundesliga club gave up more of its shots in a row from a set piece than the Berliners (107 in total and 38.08 percent).
My Union Berlin Gladbach betting tip:
Both teams start this game with a healthy dose of self-confidence. Union Berlin have recently reduced their relegation fears to a minimum, while Gladbach have been able to focus on the top 6.
In some aspects, the playing styles of both teams are similar, which does not mean that they can defend better as a result.
My expectations are definitely leaning towards a game with more than three goals. That has already been the case in four of the five previous matches involving the Foals.
My Union Berlin v Gladbach betting tip: Over 2.5 goals will be scored!
