Bundesliga matchday 33, Saturday, 10.05.2025 at 15:30
Heidenheim at least kept Bochum at bay last week with a 0-0 draw against Bochum. VfL are four points behind the relegation places with two games remaining and are on the brink of relegation.
Frank Schmidt’s team, on the other hand, want to at least make it into the relegation play-offs, but Kiel are piling on the pressure with two wins in a row. At the same time, there is still a mathematical chance of reaching the safe shore.
Saturday will be a complicated away match without regular keeper Kevin Müller following his concussion. But I think the promoted team from the previous season can score one or two goals, which is also my bet at Betano for my Union Berlin Heidenheim betting tip:
I really didn’t expect Heidenheim to end 0-0 against Bochum. Yes, we’re talking about two of the three worst offensive teams in the league here, but Bochum were challenged and absolutely had to score a three-pointer to stay in the league.
In the end, they didn’t even manage to score a goal, a result that Heidenheim could live with better, but also missed the opportunity to stabilize their relegation place ahead of Kiel with a three-pointer and move closer to St. Pauli once again.
Both teams are still treading water and Heidenheim will be even more excited than ever after Kiel’s three-pointer!
The oddsmakers’ forecast
Union start as favorites at home, offering 2.18. The odds suggest that the great conviction of our PayPal betting providers will not materialize. The odds for the visitors to win are correspondingly close: 3.30. The draw (3.50) was set a little higher.
Union have had a few of those recently – and I can well imagine another draw in this matchup. It would be the fifth draw in a row for the Iron, who have already secured their place in the league under Steffen Baumgart.
AI prediction Union Berlin vs. Heidenheim: ChatGPT
Let’s see what artificial intelligence has brought from the betting market. First of all, we have an odds that I have also considered, the goal of both teams. I’m not expecting one-way soccer here.
According to ChatGPT, the bet carries only a low risk, although it has rather attractive odds of 1.72. In line with this, the AI serves up the Over 2.5 goals in the medium risk category.
The combined odds are good, but I would prefer to back the 1:1.
The third selection is somewhat contradictory, at least to the first choice. According to ChatGPT, however, this also calls for “caution” as far as the stakes are concerned. The 3.90 looks tempting, but I don’t think much of the odds.
Yes, Heidenheim are not considered the most dangerous attack in the league, but Union have only managed two of their last eleven games without conceding a goal, and only two white vests at home in the calendar year 2025.
What’s more, apart from the 3-0 defeat in Frankfurt, Schmidt’s side have scored reliably away from home recently. That’s why I can’t take anything away from this AI selection
Analysis: Union Berlin vs. Heidenheim
Under Steffen Baumgart, who was sacked by HSV last autumn, the Berliners, who kicked against Real Madrid in the Champions League last season, have visibly stabilized.
The man who left his slate hat in the Hanseatic city took over at the start of the year. In the second half of the season, they have already collected five more points than in the entire first half, scoring seven more goals.
The capital team have shone in the spring, unbeaten in eight games, with their last defeat coming against Kiel at the beginning of March. This was followed by three wins against Frankfurt (2:1), Freiburg (2:1) and Wolfsburg (1:0).
Individual points came against Bayern (1:1), Leverkusen (0:0), Stuttgart (4:4), Bochum (1:1) and most recently against Bremen. There, they made an impressive comeback from 2-0 down and gave the Green-Whites a pinprick in the race for Europe with a late equalizer.
Odds Analysis
Because of this string of unbeaten games, I don’t dare to bet against Union here. But neither do I really fancy the Iron, for whom the only thing left to play for in the table is the exact place in the bottom half of the table, while the visitors are in a fight for survival in the league.
Playing freely here meets an enormous pressure situation. Heidenheim have managed to go through their last two Bundesliga games without conceding a goal, the first time since August, a 1-0 win against Stuttgart and then a clean sheet against Bochum.
As we’ve had six games in a row without a goal from either team, it’s become a different bet for me this time. Especially as the number of goals has generally been limited, I think the 1-2 Heidenheim goals is the right bet instead.
Apart from a 3-3 draw against Bremen, Heidenheim have scored exactly this number of goals in away games when the visitors have managed to get on the scoreboard.
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I’ve already said that Heidenheim are pretty reliable on the road. FCH have only lost one of their last five away games and have picked up 15 more points on the road than at home.
There were only eleven, no other team collected fewer. In recent seasons, it was the games at the Voith Arena that were so uncomfortable for opponents in previous seasons. With 26 points, more than twice as many points were scored in 2023/2024
17 fewer Heidenheim goals than in the previous season
A comparison with the previous year shows that although Heidenheim only conceded five more goals this year, they also scored 17 fewer goals themselves. The loss of almost the entire offense, in the form of Tim Kleindienst, Jan-Niklas Beste and Eren Dinkci, could not be compensated for.
Only St. Pauli have fewer goals to their name, but the Hamburg side have clearly done a better job in defense. Heidenheim are in third-last place in terms of chances created and an unpopular third place in terms of goals conceded.
Heidenheim won the first leg 2:0, one of three home victories. Schmidt’s team has a really good overall record against Union, having not been beaten in nine league matches.
In between, there was only one setback in the 2022 Cup (0:2). However, Heidenheim have only won one of seven games away from home at the Alte Försterei.
Incidentally, Heidenheim have always scored one or two goals in the last six league meetings…
My Union Berlin Heidenheim tip:
Heidenheim need the points more urgently than Union Berlin. Kiel are pressing from behind and there is still the mathematical possibility of reaching the very safe shore in the form of 15th place.
However, the upcoming opponent has been unbeaten for over two months and has clearly improved, but has not been flawless in the games. The first 30 minutes against Bremen showed that again.
As in the HSV era, I still feel Union lack consistency over the full 90 minutes under Baumgart. And since Heidenheim always score one or two goals when they score away from home, apart from the 3:3 in Bremen, as they have done in the last six league matches, I opt for the following selection:
Heidenheim score 1-2 goals!
