Union Berlin – HSV Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 5 on Sunday, 09/28/2025 at 7:30 p.m.
Incidentally, the Union Berlin HSV tip he generated is the perfect complement to the Bet-at-home deposit bonus and convinced me right away.
This match will not end in a dull 0-0 draw; the data speaks for itself. You can find out which data I focused on in my research below!
Although this pairing is not a first in German professional soccer, it is still one of the rarer encounters. However, this is the first time that 1. FC Union Berlin and Hamburger SV will face each other in the Bundesliga!
In the 2018/19 2nd division, Union remained unbeaten in the two previous encounters (2:2 away, 2:0 at home).
Exciting: Under Steffen Baumgart, Union has already suffered two Bundesliga defeats against promoted teams – the same number as in their first 22 top-flight games against newcomers combined.
Union Berlin – HSV Prediction & Betting
Ansah is currently the man of the moment in the media. Of course, I immediately looked him up on the Bwin app. The accurate HSV striker has scored his four goals in this young season from just five shots.
Ansah to score at 2.75 is therefore a Union Berlin HSV tip that made it onto my shortlist without me having to think twice.
However, I have more confidence in the Over 2.5 goals selection, as I simply don’t expect this match to end 0-0.
Especially since Union Berlin has just conceded three or more goals in three Bundesliga games in a row for the first time and also has the weakest defense in the league with a total of 11 goals conceded.
What you need to consider when betting on Union Berlin vs. HSV
- HSV has the weakest xG value in the Bundesliga after four games with 3.7 (Augsburg 3.76).
- Union has scored 3+ goals in each of its last eight league games.
- Union has conceded the most goals in the league after the break (7).
- HSV conceded the most shots (75) in the first four rounds.
- Hamburg conceded five goals before the break – joint highest number.
Union Berlin – HSV: AI tip & odds analysis
Union Berlin’s games consistently show high goal potential – with an impressive average of 4.75 goals per game.
This has significantly influenced our Union Berlin HSV AI prediction.
Consequently, the computer-generated suggestions have been designed across the board to predict a high number of goals.
In my opinion, over 3.5 goals at average odds of around 3.05 in all good sports betting apps is the most worthwhile bet.
The Iron scored eight goals from 5.7 xG, while the HSV defense got off to a shaky start, conceding eight goals at 8.1 xGA (expected goals against).
Consequently, the AI also suggested Union Berlin over 1.5 goals and Union Berlin to win despite conceding a goal at average odds of 1.90 and 3.65 respectively.
I am also convinced by both suggestions, but they depend on your individual risk appetite. In any case, it will be difficult for the promoted team to avoid conceding goals altogether on Sunday!
The best odds for Union Berlin vs. HSV
Union Berlin vs. HSV – a duel that sounds intense just from the name. I know FCU fans don’t like to hear this, but for me, this is an early relegation battle in the 2025/26 Bundesliga season.
On the one hand, there is the Köpenickers’ ironclad home strength, and on the other, there are the Hanseatics, who traditionally never give in and will fight tooth and nail against immediate relegation.
Merkur Bets and Bet-at-home are ahead in the Union Berlin HSV odds: 2.00 for a win for the Iron Ones, 3.70 for a draw, and a whopping 3.80 if Hamburg triumphs in Berlin.
Union Berlin vs HSV match analysis:
This smells like a game in which no one really wants the ball. It’s quite possible that both sides will prefer to lie in wait for counterattacking opportunities rather than passing the ball back and forth between their own ranks for long periods.
After all, Hamburger SV (41% possession) and Union Berlin (31%) are two of the three teams with the lowest possession in the Bundesliga this season – only Heidenheim lies between them.
Union in particular plays extremely simply: they have the fewest passes in the league (1078) and the lowest pass completion rate (70%). HSV is at least more solid in this regard (83.1%, eighth place).
The intensity of the pressing is also exciting: Union allows an average of 20.3 opponent passes outside its own third before taking action – the highest in the league. HSV is close behind with 18.7.
For you, this means: Expect a tough, but possibly high-scoring game in which both sides will be on the lookout for counterattacks and mistakes by their opponents.
Union Berlin form check
Union will have to do without head coach Steffen Baumgart this weekend, who is suspended after receiving a red card in Frankfurt. Assistant coach Danilo Fernando Evangelista de Souza will therefore take over on the sidelines.
There are also personnel problems: Burcu (ankle) and Nsoki (thigh) are definitely out, while Juranović (ankle) and Skov (calf) remain doubtful.
At least Rothe is available again after serving his suspension, while Köhn will take over on the left.
HSV Form check
The omens are mixed for HSV: although the Hanseatic club recently celebrated its first Bundesliga victory in over seven years (2-1 against Heidenheim), but they are still struggling away from home.
HSV are still waiting for their first away goal this season, making them the only team in the league without an away goal.
The Hanseatic club last experienced a similar dry spell in 2014/15, when they scored their first away goal in their fourth away game of the season.
The availability of Vuskovic remains questionable after he broke his finger, while Hefti and Hermann are definitely out. However, if Vuskovic is fit in time, no changes are planned to the expected 3-4-3 formation.
