Union Berlin – Leipzig Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 14 on Friday, 12/12/2025 at 20:30 CET
After the disappointing pre-season, RB Leipzig once again saw themselves condemned to involuntary spectators in the English European Cup week, which is now coming to an end. However, the Bulls have long been working on a comeback at the highest international level.
It is mainly thanks to the flawless home record that Ole Werner’s team has become the first Bayern hunter – and is thus on a promising course towards the Champions League.
In the opening game of the 14th Bundesliga matchday, however, it is now important to improve the away record a little. The Saxons have only won three of the seven games they have already played away from home.
However, my Union Berlin Leipzig tip expresses doubts that this project will succeed. Because the Irons are regularly in top form against top teams, I placed the football bet on at least one point for the home side at the bookmaker of my choice.
The Irons had not cut the happiest figure in recent weeks. With defeats in the tests against Heidenheim and Wolfsburg, which were actually considered feasible, the leap to the single-digit places in the table was missed.
Now, however, it should be to the taste of the Berliners that the ball can be left to the Saxons, who are of course much stronger on Friday.
With minimal possession, an uncompromising defence and efficient transition play, FCU had surprised Bayern (2-2) and Eintracht Frankfurt (4-3), among others, who were much more favourites at the time.
Union Berlin – Leipzig Prediction & Betting
Although the aforementioned surprises against Bayern and Frankfurt were not stingy with goals, the duel against the Red Bulls seems to me to be far less predestined for a shooting festival.
After two last year’s duels were completely goalless, I now see the Under 2.5 goals as promising again at the start of the 14th matchday – odds of about 2.00.
The Under 3.5 goals at odds of around 1.40 is statistically even an absolute safety tip – none of the last eleven competitive duels between the two teams has ever seen a fourth goal.
Since Leipzig have only scored more than one goal in one of their seven away games this season (and Union have only scored 10 goals at home), I decided on a 1-1 draw as a result prediction – odds of 6.00.
So in any case, I assume that there are opponentson both sides, which, for example, are available at betting providers from Germany for odds of currently up to 1.65.
What you need to know about Union Berlin vs Leipzig betting
- FC Union Berlin have not won any of their last four Bundesliga ties with RB Leipzig (D2 L2), but have picked up a point twice last season (0-0 each). Union, however, have been waiting for a goal against the Saxons for four BL games
- With 29 points after 13 games, RB Leipzig are playing their second-best Bundesliga season, only in their debut season in the top flight in 2016/17 (33) did the Saxons collect more points than currently at the same time.
- Union Berlin lost only the first Friday home game in the club’s history in the Bundesliga in September 2019 (1-2 against Frankfurt) and have since picked up 23 out of a possible 27 points in nine games at home (W7 D2).
- Union Berlin have scored 50% of their goals from set-pieces this Bundesliga season (8 out of 16) – the highest percentage in the league together with SC Freiburg. RB Leipzig has a share of 21%, with only Hoffenheim (20%) and Cologne (14%)
- RB Leipzig have scored six goals in the opening quarter of an hour this Bundesliga season (league record with Bayer 04 Leverkusen) and are the only team in the league without conceding a goal in the first 15 minutes of the game – opponents Union Berlin follow directly behind with a goal conceded in this period.
Union Berlin – Leipzig: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our in-house artificial intelligence obviously gives the greater priorities to the undeniable qualitative superiority of the current guests – after all, the Union Berlin Leipzig AI forecast starts the game with “Tip 2”.
Although I apparently decided otherwise, I certainly can’t blame the AI for this recommendation. With a little more than twice the stake, a victory for the Saxons is finally paid out quite attractively.
This also applies to a Diomande hit, which currently brings odds of about 2.75. As is well known, the RB youngster had just scored a hat-trick in the 6-0 win against Frankfurt; in total, the Ivorian has already struck six times this season.
With the thrust towards the away win, our AI is preparing for an offensively powerful performance by the Saxon guests in Berlin.
This assumption is also reflected in the tip that at least two Leipzig goals can be expected at the start of the Bundesliga weekend – odds of currently around 1.90.
The Under 2.5 goals I am aiming for nevertheless remain within the realm of possibility, after all, the artificial intelligence assumes a goalless performance by the home side at a rate of 3.00.
Our little technical aid also logically has the resulting tip “Leipzig win to zero” on board, which brings a refund of 3.6 times the stake in the event of success.
The best odds for Union Berlin vs. Leipzig
Although RB Leipzig have often gotten a bloody nose at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei, the Union Berlin Leipzig odds are quite clearly in favor of a three-point win for the guests.
Even among the absolute top providers, a Saxon threesome – as of now – is quoted at just 2.10. Measured against the 46 percent probability of success determined by the AI, the payout promised here is just about average.
However, since I intend to bet against the trend here, those Union RB odds are of course much more interesting for me, which deal with a more or less successful appearance of the official outsider.
With odds of just over 3.50 for a draw or a home win, there are no significant differences between the “Tip 1” and the “Tip X” for the 1×2 bet.
Since it was just as difficult for me to commit to one of the two variants with the Union Berlin Leipzig prediction, the double chance 1X is the only logical consequence for me!
Union Berlin vs Leipzig Match Analysis:
Leipzig will be looking to fend off their rivals in the battle for the top four spots, so it’s important to build a comfortable lead. Union Berlin wants to avoid slipping into the critical zone and goes into this game 14 points behind the guests.
Under Ole Werner, Leipzig is less aggressive in pressing. The team allows 15.88 passes per defensive action, which is the fifth-best value in the Bundesliga.
This more passive approach without the ball has strengthened the defence and made it more difficult for the opponent to use spaces behind the defence.
Although Leipzig is more willing to leave the ball to the opponent, the Saxons are undoubtedly likely to have the majority of possession here. Werner’s team is ahead of Union Berlin in terms of pitch pitch, which measures territorial dominance.
Therefore, it is to be expected that the guests will gain a lot of possession in the front areas.
Union Berlin have already scored eight goals from set pieces, more than any other team in the Bundesliga. However, this accounts for 50% of their league goals.
If Leipzig have their seven senses together at the opponent’s set-pieces, the chances are good to win this game.
Union Berlin Form Check
Union Berlin have only picked up five points from their last five Bundesliga games, but are still four points ahead of Heidenheim, who are currently in 16th place and occupy the relegation zone.
The hosts have lost their most recent games against Heidenheim and Wolfsburg and are winless in three games, including the 3-2 home defeat against Bayern Munich in the DFB Cup. Union Berlin have been waiting for a league win since October 17, when they defeated Gladbach 3-1.
With nine points from seven home games and an average of 1.29 points per game, Union Berlin is living up to expectations, similar to last season, when they finished with an average of 1.24 points per home game.
According to our internal model BETSiE, Union Berlin should easily secure their place in the Bundesliga and finish in 11th place with at least 40 points, which corresponds to a relegation probability of less than 3.8%.
Although Union Berlin is one of the weaker offensives in the Bundesliga with only 16 goals from 15.05 expected goals, the club has scored 10 of those goals at home, where they also kept a clean sheet in the only two games in which they did not score a goal, against Freiburg and Hamburg.
Union have the lowest possession percentage in the league at just 36.1% per game, but concede only 1.47 xGA (expected goals conceded) per game, putting them in eighth place in the Bundesliga, demonstrating their ability to stay organised even when the opponent is in charge.
Leipzig Form Check
Leipzig cemented their second place in the Bundesliga with a resounding 6-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt, topped off by a hat-trick from Yan Diomande, to maintain their perfect home record.
Leipzig bounced back impressively from their last defeat at Hoffenheim on 8 November, picking up three wins and a draw in their last four home games.
Now the club is aiming for its first away win since October 25, when they defeated Augsburg 6-0. With only two defeats in 13 league games, the season continues to be very positive for Leipzig. A win on Friday would increase the lead over fifth-placed Hoffenheim, the first club outside the Champions League qualifying places, to 10 points.
With 29 points from 14 games, Leipzig surpasses last year’s average of 27 points and thus records the best start to the season since 2020/21, when the Saxons picked up 31 points in the first 14 games.
According to our internal AI model, Leipzig now has an 84.2% chance of finishing in the top four and thus qualifying for the Champions League.
Leipzig’s next challenge is to improve their away record, where they have scored just 10 goals so far, but still managed narrow 1-0 wins over Wolfsburg and Mainz.
A setback for Leipzig is Nusa’s ankle injury, which he sustained against Eintracht Frankfurt and which exacerbates the absence of key players Assan Ouedraogo and Romulo in recent weeks.
Nusa has contributed two goals and two assists in 15 appearances for Leipzig this season. However, Leipzig’s offensive numbers remain promising, with the second-highest xG per game of 1.99, just behind Bayern.
