Union Berlin – Mainz Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 16 on Saturday, 10.01.2026 at 15:30 CET
In the first game of the new year, Urs Fischer returns to the Alte Försterei, where he is assured of eternal legendary status. The Swiss coach had once taken over the Irons in the 2nd division – and in the meantime even led them to the Champions League.
Fischer recently took on a similar Herculean task in Mainz, after all, it is important to save Rheinhessen, who are wintering in last place in the table, from relegation to the second division.
In the coming weeks and months, this will require points, points, points! At least the starting signal of the planned catch-up does not seem to be under a good star, after all, the last five guest appearances in Köpenick have all been lost.
However, since the Berlin host has a weakness for slip-ups against supposed point suppliers, I trust FSV to score at least one point on the 16th matchday of the Bundesliga as part of my Union Berlin Mainz tips at a betting provider with PayPal.
After the recent victories against RB Leipzig and 1 FC Cologne, there does not seem to be too much to suggest a looming danger for Union Berlin at first glance, but the devil has once again hidden in the details.
The last three home games against a bottom of the table have all been completely wasted by the Irons without a single point. Heidenheim last picked up their only three away points of the current season in the capital at the end of November.
Mainz could now also beat the Irons, at least in part, with their own weapons. Just as once with his commitment in Berlin, Urs Fischer is now also relying on a style of play with damn little possession at FSV.
Union Berlin – Mainz Prediction & Betting
Although I speculate on a share of points on Saturday, I expect numerous switching actions against teams that are basically defensive, which is why the trial of strength will probably not end goalless.
Since the newest bookmakers on the market are also expecting the lowest-scoring match of the entire 16th round in the Alte Försterei, the resulting football bet “Both teams to score” is quite presentably odds with a just under 1.90.
As a goalscorer on the side of the hosts, Andrej Ilic in particular has an odd of 3.50 on the bill in something against the trend, whose knot will now simply have to burst in 2026.
Although the Serbian has the highest xG value of all Berlin players, he is still waiting for his first goal in the current season (and hopefully only until Saturday).
On the other side, the first goal of the season by Benedcit Hollerbach at odds of 5.80 seems to be overdue, who with nine goals in the previous season still appeared as the sharpest weapon of the Irons!
What you need to know about Union Berlin vs. Mainz betting
- FSV Mainz 05 have won only one of their 12 Bundesliga games against Union Berlin (1-0 at home in February 202, plus D4 L7) – against no other club against whom Mainz have played more than twice in the top flight, the Rheinhessen have such a low points average in the BL (0.58).
- Union have won all of their last five home duels against Mainz, a club record for FCU in the top flight against one opponent.
- Including the 0-2 game against VfL Bochum in mid-December 2024, Union Berlin have lost all of their last three Bundesliga home games against bottom-of-the-table teams (most recently 1-2 against Heidenheim at the end of November) – four home defeats in a row against bottom-of-the-table teams would be a new BL negative record.
- With eight points after 15 games, FSV Mainz 05 is playing its second-weakest Bundesliga season, only in 2020/21 were there even fewer points (6). With a single-digit number of points after 15 games, only three clubs have stayed in the league in the three-point era, including Mainz itself twice.
Union Berlin – Mainz: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
While I assume that there are two win-hungry substitutes for all the offensive problems, the defensive work is the trump card for our in-house AI model on Saturday.
The Union Mainz KI forecast is also most likely to be prepared for a share of points. With the combination of “Tip X and Under 2.5 Goals”, however, at odds of 3.60, a 1:1 point split is possible at best.
As a risk tip, the AI has even opted for the goalless draw quoted at 7.20. With this dismal result, Mainz had already parted ways with FC St. Pauli immediately before the winter break.
The forecast “Both to score: NO” at odds of around 1.87 is ultimately equivalent to an emergency exit – after all, it also prices in the possibility of a clean sheet victory by one of the two opponents.
Since Mainz has already gone completely goalless eight times this season, this AI tip can be statistically excellently underpinned.
The best odds for Union Berlin vs. Mainz
With two victories in a row, the Irons have obviously done a lot of convincing with the bookmakers. In the Union Mainz odds, the bookies now see the hosts quite clearly ahead.
An odd of only around 2.15 is not available every day, even for a home win for the Berliners. Certainly, it also plays a role in this quota that Mainz have lost all of their last five away games at the An der Alten Försterei stadium.
The fact that I may not be moving onto the completely slippery ice with my draw tip can be guessed from a look at the corresponding offers of the bookmakers.
With a generous 3.30, the points split in Berlin is quite well below the values at which the draws are available in most other Bundesliga stadiums.
With a round 3.80, an away win at Union Berlin Mainz odds is provided with quite high values. Feat: In the meantime, the Rheinhessen – change of coach or not – have been waiting for only eleven matchdays for only the second full three-pointer.
Union Berlin vs Mainz Match Analysis:
Mainz urgently needs points. The team goes into this game six points behind the saving place and 13 points behind Union Berlin, but the change of coach seems to have given the Rheinhessen a perspective again. That’s why I’m expecting a hard-fought match here.
Since Urs Fischer took over, Mainz have averaged only 36.5% possession in their last four competitive games, and that is likely to continue in Köpenick.
Mainz are expected to start with five defenders to avoid conceding goals, so no attacking start is to be expected, especially since Union Berlin have scored 0.25 fewer goals per game than the Bundesliga average.
Union Berlin is also used to having less possession. In terms of pitch pitch, a metric that measures territorial dominance, Union Berlin is in fourth-last place in the Bundesliga. Nevertheless, it is to be expected that the Irons will show some offensive drive against Mainz, which has the second worst xGA (expected goals conceded) in the Bundesliga.
Union Berlin’s games have the third-highest number of fouls in the league. Mainz’s games are also above the league average, so numerous tough duels are to be expected in this game. The importance of the victory for the visiting team will also contribute to what is expected to be a hard-fought game.
Both teams lack quality in attack, which is reflected in the lower rankings in the xG rankings (expected goals) of the Bundesliga.
Therefore, it could be a game with few goals and only a few clear scoring chances, especially since Urs Fischer has emphasized that he wants to improve Mainz’s defense.
Union Berlin Form Check
Union Berlin are in the best form of the season and have won two Bundesliga games in a row for the first time this season, equalling their winning record from the last nine games (three draws, four defeats).
Union Berlin are currently in eighth place in the Bundesliga and have had a solid season, most recently with wins against Leipzig (3-1) and Cologne (1-0). The club is five points behind the European qualifying places, which should serve as motivation for the rest of the season.
Known for its direct play and counter-attacking football, Union Berlin have the lowest pass completion rate in the Bundesliga at 71.7% and the fewest passes per game at 306.
Offensively, Union Berlin is struggling overall and is in second last place among the eleven best teams in the Bundesliga with only 20 goals scored, behind Bremen (18 goals).
The offense is also in the fifth worst place in terms of xG (17.73) and in the fourth last place in terms of shots on goal per game (3.67).
The sale of Benedict Hollerbach to Mainz has had an impact on the offensive performance. He was Union Berlin’s top scorer last season with nine league goals, but has yet to score a goal for Mainz.
So far, only four Union Berlin players have scored in the league, and although Andrej Ilic has the highest xG value in the team (3.68), he is yet to score a goal.
Mainz Form Check
Mainz 05 are experiencing their second-worst Bundesliga season with only eight points from 15 games. Only in the 2020/21 season (6) did the club score fewer points. Although Mainz is in last place in the Bundesliga table during the winter break, it is only six points to safety, although the club has not won its last eleven Bundesliga games.
In terms of away form, Mainz lost four away games in a row before drawing 2-2 with champions Bayern Munich in their last away game.
Mainz have failed to score in eight games this season, the highest number in the league, equalling the total number of goalless games for the entire 2024/25 season.
Defensively, Mainz are struggling as they have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 13 away matches in the Bundesliga and concede an average of 1.58 goals per away game in all competitions.
Rheinhessen recently scored a goalless draw against St. Pauli, but they have only scored 0.60 goals per away game and have not scored at all in 60% of their away games.
To avoid relegation, Mainz has started to strengthen its attack, which is currently the worst with only 13 goals scored during the winter transfer period. First, Phillip Tietz was signed from Augsburg.
The 28-year-old striker has signed a two-and-a-half-year contract with an option for another year. Tietz scored 16 Bundesliga goals for Augsburg in two and a half seasons and played 68 league games.
In addition, Mainz have reached an agreement with VfB Stuttgart on the signing of Silas Katompa Mvumpa. The 27-year-old played 132 games for Stuttgart and was on loan to Crvena Zvezda last season, where he scored seven goals in 24 games.
