Bundesliga 20th matchday, Saturday, 01/02/2025 at 6:30 pm
For Union fans, the 2024/25 season is emblematic of the last few years – a constant up and down. Currently, they are on an athletic downward spiral deep into the basement of the table, threateningly low.
If they don’t manage to break free against RB Leipzig on Saturday, Union could even slip to the last non-relegation place in the worst case.
A win would therefore not only be important, but essential for the new, so far hapless coach Baumgart to finally gain a foothold in the capital.
According to my Union Berlin RB Leipzig betting tip, they will at least manage not to go home empty-handed again on the 20th Bundesliga matchday.
Union and RBL are two relatively new faces in the German football league, but they have played a lot of games against each other. Both opponents will meet for the 17th time in German professional football.
In the last three Bundesliga duels, FCU remained winless and scoreless and also lost the home game in the previous season 0-3. At home, the Irons have conceded more goals against FCU than against the “Roten Bullen” (10).
This statistic speaks for itself. However, after the anemic performance in the Champions League on Wednesday, I really don’t expect much from the Saxons.
The betting providers’ prediction?
The football betting providers are expecting a rather even game, which will be revealed to the spectators in the Köpenick district on Saturday.
Nevertheless, I deduce from the current Union Berlin RB Leipzig odds a slight favorization of the “Red Bulls”.
Because the average victory odds of the Saxons are on average 2.25 below those of the host at about 2.25.
ChatGPT AI prediction Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig: That’s what ChatGPT tips
I got an Union Berlin RB Leipzig AI prediction for free along with the Interwetten free bet to get objective input.
“Leipzig win after falling behind” is a suggestion from ChatGPT that is considered risky and I can only do so with it.
I don’t expect Leipzig to win, but if they do, it will probably be after falling behind and staging a wild comeback.
According to the AI, however, she is taking a medium risk with the tip “1st goal Union”. Personally, I actually expect the Berliners to start the game with more momentum and be closer to scoring the opening goal from the outset.
“Both teams score” seems to be another promising bet with little risk. I like this assessment, even if I’m not necessarily expecting a goal festival.
A 2-1 or a 1-1 is, after all, by far the most likely final scores at the Alte Försterei.
Analysis: Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig
Union must urgently find the rip cord of its brake parachute, otherwise relegation is a real threat this year, which they managed to avoid at the last minute in the previous season.
Union Berlin have won just one of their last 12 Bundesliga games (plus three draws and eight defeats) and, with 20 points from 19 games, are playing their second-weakest season in the top flight – only in 2023/24 were there fewer points at this point in time (17).
And that’s not all: since the start of matchday 8, only 1. FC Heidenheim (5) have scored fewer points than the “Irons” (6).
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have only shone at home since the winter break – specifically, in a 4-2 win over Bremen on Matchday 16 of the Bundesliga and a 2-1 win over Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League.
But after the extremely disappointing performance against Sturm Graz last Wednesday, I believe that they will have to wait until next Saturday for their first away win in 2025.
Odds Analysis
A close, even game seems obvious here, which is why the “1:1 result bet” at 6.50 appeals to me in particular. Not many goals are to be expected from the weak offense of the Köpenickers anyway.
Since it looks like it will be a rather scrappy game against Leipzig, “Under 3.5 goals” is another great consideration for an interesting football bet in any decent sports betting app.
Union Berlin vs. RB Leipzig: Baumgart faces his nemesis!
Unions Steffen Baumgart experienced the weakest start of any Union coach in the Bundesliga, with just three points in his first four games.
His debut at Union was therefore not a successful one, but now, to make matters worse, his absolute nemesis is waiting for him.
Hold on: no other manager has faced more times in the top flight without winning than Leipzig’s Marco Rose (6 times, as against Urs Fischer).
In the last duel with Rose, he even conceded his highest Bundesliga defeat with 1. FC Cologne in Leipzig in October 2023 with 6-0.
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Union are not doing well either, but the same applies to their opponents. RB Leipzig have only won one of their last five Bundesliga games and have not won three times in a row (2 draws, 1 defeat).
The Saxons even conceded at least two goals in five consecutive games in the top flight for the first time!
And I don’t even want to go into detail about the weak performance against Graz in the Champions League, which ended in a 0-1 defeat. Because the Rose team was completely out of sorts when they visited Sturm.
Personally, I’m not a fan of betting on Sesko scoring, but statistically speaking, there are good reasons to trust the Slovenian, especially against Union.
Sesko has scored in each of his last three Bundesliga away games (3 goals) and could now score for the second time in four Bundesliga away games in a row.
But what’s particularly interesting for you: he has scored against no opponent in the top flight as few minutes per goal as against Union Berlin (57).
In terms of converting chances, the Berliners can definitely take a leaf out of RB Leipzig’s book. That’s because 1. FC Union Berlin has only converted 9.1% of its scoring chances this Bundesliga season – the lowest in the league.
Their upcoming opponents, RB Leipzig, have the third-best conversion rate in the league (21.5%), behind VfL Wolfsburg (23.2%) and FC Bayern (21.6%).
But that will probably only play a minor role on Saturday, as the game should mainly take place in the middle of the field.
My Union Berlin RB Leipzig Tip:
It should be a tough game with many interruptions and a lot of midfield skirmishing.
However, Union Berlin could perform a little better under these conditions and therefore has a realistic chance of winning a point at home.
In addition, Leipzig presented itself frighteningly weak against Graz a few days ago, which raises doubts about their current form and indirectly increases the home side’s chances of success.
My Union Berlin RB Leipzig prediction plays it safe: Double chance 1X.
