World Cup Qualifiers, Saturday, 22.03.2025 at 00:30
The bookmakers see Uruguay as wafer-thin favorites, but who will ultimately win this prestigious duel?
According to my Uruguay Argentina betting tip, you have the best chance of success if you hedge twice. Because in the bet “Both teams score: No!”, both defenses would have to fail to stop you from cashing out on a sports bet.
When Uruguay and Argentina meet, it’s not just about the prestigious South American derby, but also about important points in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers.
The “Celeste” have proven to be an unpleasant opponent in recent years, especially in their home games in Montevideo, where they have won nine of their last matches.
Another strong argument for their home strength is the fact that they have not conceded a goal in four of their last five games – that will not only please the fans, but also coach Marcelo Bielsa, who always comes up with something against Argentina …
Uruguay have memories of the 2-0 win over Argentina in Buenos Aires in November 2023 in the back of their minds. That was a significant victory, having previously failed to win seven games against the “Albiceleste” (2 draws, 5 defeats).
On the other hand, Argentina’s aim is to maintain their top position in the FIFA world rankings. Lionel Scaloni’s side have not always been at their best since their Copa America triumph in July.
With three wins, one draw and two defeats from the last six games, there are certainly weaknesses, especially in the away games.
This is no secret: in their last three away games in CONMEBOL qualifying, the Argentinians have failed to pick up a single win, making them a particularly vulnerable opponent.
Most recently, they even suffered a 2-1 defeat in Paraguay, which was against a much weaker team than Uruguay. Finally, the bookmakers paid out home win odds of around 5.00.
An under 2.5 goals bet is nice, but at odds of around 1.42 not really profitable. Personally, I therefore prefer a Uruguay Argentina bet of the type “Both teams to score? No” at slightly higher odds of around 1.60.
The potential for a clean sheet is simply much higher here than in other international matches on this matchday.
You mustn’t forget that both teams are almost certain to take part in the 2026 World Cup and could very well agree on a draw.
Julián Álvarez is definitely in good form and could be the player who scores another goal here, if there is one at all.
After quickly forgetting his disappointing Champions League penalty with a double touch, he put Atlético Madrid ahead last weekend with one of his magnificent strikes.
Three of his last four goals have opened the scoring, making him a real threat in attack. So if a goal is scored, he is the player likely to score it – possibly even the 1:0.
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Conclusion: So looking at the form of both teams, one could come to the conclusion that this match will be a hard-fought but possibly low-scoring duel.
Uruguay will be going all out to pick up another win in Montevideo, but with a strong defense and an attacking performance that is rather lacking, it could be hard to score many goals.
Argentina won’t shine with many goals either, as their away record in this qualifier is not exactly convincing and their attackers, despite their world-class quality, often fail to impress against robust defenses.
My tip: Neither team will score!
