Copa del Rey Quarter-final, Thursday, 06/02/2025 at 9:30 pm
If a rider falls off the horse, they are advised to remount as soon as possible to avoid long-term anxiety. Valencia is facing the ghosts of the recent 7-1 defeat in the Copa del Rey and taking on FC Barcelona again.
However, the last league clash between the two sides does not necessarily reflect the overall quality of the bats, at least not under Carlos Coberan.
The 41-year-old took over the coaching job at the bottom of the table on Christmas Day and has since initiated a respectable development.
Of his first seven competitive games, Coberan has only lost two. Both defeats were against a Spanish top team (1-2 against Real Madrid, 1-7 against Barcelona).
Another defeat for the bats is very likely against Barca, but I think the hosts will score. This brings me to odds of 2.60 for “Barcelona win & both teams score” at Bet365.
The betting providers’ prediction?
It won’t be difficult for Valencia to do better against Barcelona than they did in the last league game. The 7-1 defeat of the bats should still be vividly present in the minds of many of you.
However, that doesn’t change much at the base for the three-way bet. A football bet in which you predict a “Barcelona win” will only get you a return of around 1.46 times.
If Valencia delivers a true underdog cinderella story and wins within regular time, you will have earned odds of 7.40.
Analysis: Valencia vs Barcelona
Valencia have been far from a true top club for years. Since the 2019/2020 season, the Blanquinegros have never finished higher than ninth.
This season, they are really in the hot seat for the first time and their place in the Spanish top flight is at risk. Currently, the hosts are only in second-last place in the table.
Shortly after Christmas, the Valencia board made a change to the coaching staff, which has given the supporters something to cheer about. Carlos Corberan has won four of his first seven competitive games.
His pragmatic approach has breathed some life back into the team’s own offensive play. Valencia have scored at least one goal in every competitive game under Corberan so far.
Defensively, the hosts have also improved under their new coach, even if the 1-7 defeat was a slight relapse into old habits.
Apart from Real Madrid (1-2) and Barcelona (1-7), no team scored more than one goal against Corberan’s team in the five other matches.
Odds Analysis
If you are blinded by the Catalans’ last romp against Valencia, you will surely want to strike immediately at odds of around 2.10 for a “Barcelona win with a handicap”.
However, I advise caution. Valencia are better under Corberan than the one game against Barca suggests. The Blanquinegros have won three of their last four competitive matches in the comparison of expected goals.
Four of the six previous meetings between these two teams ended with a maximum of one goal difference. Following this logic, a Winamax bonus would be advisable for the odds of 1.70 on a “Valencia win with handicap + 1.5”.
Entertainment comes at a price
There is hardly a team this season that offers more entertainment in their matches than FC Barcelona. The Catalans are shaping their matches with their offensive and risky style of play and have allowed six out of nine matches in the calendar year 2025 to reach at least four goals.
The credo under Hansi Flick is as simple as it is obvious: Score more goals than your opponent. This works in most cases, thanks to the incredible quality at the disposal of the former DFB coach.
In some cases, however, it can go extremely wrong. Barca have conceded seven goals in just four games. Together with Valencia (0.14 xGA/shot), Flick’s team have allowed the highest-quality shots of any La Liga team.
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The first home game
There is one significant difference compared to the disastrous 1-7 defeat. Valencia are playing at home for the first time this Copa del Rey season.
The data from the league games suggests a huge difference for the players of the Blanquinegros. Valencia scored 16 of their 22 goals this season at home and were much more successful on average (1.36 points per home game) than away (0.36 points per away game).
Under Carlos Corberan, the bats only lost their first home game against Real Madrid (1-2). The two subsequent appearances at Mestalla were successful, with Valencia picking up three points each against Real Sociedad (1-0) and Celta Vigo (2-1).
In my Valencia v Barcelona tip, I don’t expect a landslide victory, but I still expect the Blaugrana to advance.
Since the turn of the year, Barca has scored at least four goals in five of nine matches – a tally that Valencia can’t even come close to matching on its own good days.
No matter which defense is in front of them, the Catalans will get past in many cases, and usually multiple times. The league comparison of expected goals serves as an example. Here, Barcelona (55.6 xG) is well ahead of the rest of the La Liga teams (Real Madrid is in second place with 45.3 xG).
Primarily, the home side’s goal threat comes from their center forward. Hugo Duro (7 goals this season) scored at least one goal in three of five league games in the calendar year 2025. The 25-year-old has even outwitted the defenses of Real Madrid and Barcelona just recently.
Another player who deserves your attention is Luis Rioja. On the final matchday, the winger was directly involved in both goals against Celta Vigo (2-1). His six points from the last six league games are remarkable.
My tip:
The Catalans have a tough task ahead of them at Mestalla. Hansi Flick needs his team to be highly professional and to show the same focus in attack that the Blaugrana have displayed throughout the season.
Valencia will receive an enormous energy boost from the crowd and will try to overcome Barca’s high-quality defense with quick transitions. The home side’s counter-attacking play is now working well, as they demonstrated in their 2-1 win over Celta Vigo.
In the end, FC Barcelona’s individual quality should create enough scoring chances to overcome a goal against if necessary.
Therefore, I opt for the following Valencia Barcelona tip: Barcelona wins and both teams score!
