Serie A, Sunday, 04/27/2025, 12:30 p.m.
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I expect the Rossoneri – buoyed by their place in the Coppa Italia final – to build on the momentum from their epic victory in the Derby della Madonnina and score multiple goals against the newly promoted side.
There is a lot at stake on Sunday at the unpopular lunchtime kick-off at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo!
While the hosts from Venice are fighting for survival, Milan are traveling to Venice full of confidence after their derby triumph against Inter and with their European ambitions still very much alive.
The betting markets are clear: the resurgent visitors are favorites going into this game with AC Milan odds of around 1.75 – and rightly so.
Venezia once again denied themselves a deserved reward last weekend. The Lagunisti were leading 2-1 against Empoli but ultimately had to settle for a 2-2 draw.
This means that the promoted side has now dropped a whopping 28 (!) points from winning positions – more than any other team in Serie A.
If you add up the points they’ve dropped after taking the lead, Venezia wouldn’t be at the bottom of the table, but somewhere in the solid mid-table.
But that’s exactly the problem: this team just can’t manage to stay stable for 90 minutes.
The men from Venice are difficult to beat – only one defeat in their last eight competitive games – but six of those eight games ended in a draw.
And as we all know, that’s not much use in a relegation battle.
What’s more, four of their remaining five opponents are in the top ten, so the final sprint will be tough.
At least the last home game was narrowly won against bottom-of-the-table Monza. But will that be enough to hold off the much stronger Milan?
AC, on the other hand, seems to be hitting form at just the right time. In their 3-0 win in the Derby della Madonnina, Sérgio Conceição’s side were clinical and, above all, full of enthusiasm.
Luka Jović scored twice and seems to have finally arrived. In general, things are going much better for Milan at the moment, even if the gap to the top six is probably too big to slip into international competition via the league.
Instead, the European ticket is to be secured via the cup – and until then, the team wants to boost its confidence with successes in the league.
Venezia comes at just the right time: The Rossoneri have won all of their last four direct encounters – all without conceding a goal – and in the current season they have a flawless record against teams from the bottom of the table: 6 games, 6 wins, 5 of them without conceding a goal.
This includes the 2-0 win in the first leg against Venezia. If Milan maintain this form, there is a lot to suggest that they will pick up another three points on Sunday.
Meanwhile, during my research for the Venezia AC Milan tip, I unearthed some facts that are hard to believe at first glance! For example, in the promoted side’s last eleven league games, the score was 0-0 at half-time.
Milan, on the other hand, has shown that it can play patiently without rushing into things. Jović is on fire at the moment, Pulisic is delivering consistently, and Reijnders and Loftus-Cheek are also providing the necessary presence in midfield.
And while Venice is unable to field a full-strength side, Milan’s core remains intact.
However, I don’t just have one promising Venezia AC Milan tip for you, but several!
“AC Milan win & Jovic to score” is a really good offer at odds of around 3.50. Especially since the striker scored two goals against Inter, as already mentioned.
I also like the option “AC win & over 2.5 goals” at odds of around 2.47 on any decent sports betting app. This is an alternative, but by no means less interesting way to achieve the hoped-for betting win!
Conclusion: Of course, Venezia should not be underestimated – the home side fight hard and have an uncomfortable style that can be very annoying, especially at home.
But in the end, they usually lack maturity – and against a Milan side that has recently been focused and determined, that is unlikely to be enough.
Milan should be buoyed by their confidence after the derby win. Venezia could therefore once again experience what it’s like to lose a game that they kept open for a long time.
My tip: Milan to score over 1.5 goals
