Bundesliga Matchday 31, Friday, 25.04.2025 at 20:30
The runners-up in double digits? That’s not good enough! VfB Stuttgart hasn’t been covering itself in glory in the Bundesliga for months, and the second half of the season isn’t going according to plan. International competition? A distant dream.
The cup finalist has the final in Berlin to look forward to, but the Bundesliga seems to be suffering as a result. So, am I giving a pessimistic assessment in my VfB Stuttgart vs. Heidenheim prediction? After all, this is a derby.
The visitors have long since ended their brief upswing and are back down to earth. Relegation is still looming, so the primary goal is likely to be securing a place in the relegation play-offs.
Since Stuttgart are currently struggling with a very uncertain defense and FCH have to risk everything, I’m going for the classic BTS in this match. I’ve picked out the corresponding odds at Bet365 – where Bet365 betting credits are also waiting for you.
In any case, we shouldn’t expect boredom at the MHP Arena on Friday, as VfB gave it their all against Union Berlin last time out. Will we see a landslide victory or another close game like the 4-4 draw?
The bookmakers’ predictions?
VfB Stuttgart have been waiting for a home win for more than three months now; things just aren’t working out in their own stadium. However, that’s no reason for our German betting providers to be cautious – they’re sending the home team into the race with odds of just 1.45.
On the other hand, Heidenheim are being given average odds of 5.90 – which is hardly surprising given that they haven’t won away since September. Still, they have only lost one of their three away games at VfB so far.
Last year, the two teams put on a great show in a 3-3 draw on the Neckar, which I would personally love to see repeated. The odds for a draw on Friday are 4.80.
AI prediction VfB Stuttgart vs Heidenheim: ChatGPT’s prediction
What role does it play for ChatGPT that, as we all know, derbies have their own rules? The AI has suggested three bets to me again, none of which are to my personal taste.
The “3-0 result” tip carries a high risk. To be honest, I think that’s a bit too high. Stuttgart haven’t won at home for months and have only kept one clean sheet at home since the end of November. If they win at home, I think it will be 2-1.
I don’t see the “Stuttgart HC -1” bet as a sure thing either. Stuttgart has won three clear home victories this season, while FCH 2025 has only lost one away game by more than one goal.
Is over 2.5 a sure thing this time, given that the odds are even, albeit narrowly, below 1.50? Stuttgart are currently conceding a lot of goals, but Heidenheim haven’t scored in three matches. Conclusion: A 1-1 draw is just as likely here as a 5-5.
Analysis: VfB Stuttgart vs Heidenheim
I’ll sum up the 2024/25 season for VfB Stuttgart in a positive light: They’re in the DFB Cup final, which will be played on May 24 – that’s it. The reigning runners-up had to painfully realize that they couldn’t even come close to repeating their magnificent previous season.
“Could” is, of course, somewhat misleading, as the season is still ongoing. The Swabians go into the 31st matchday in eleventh place, but are actually only six points behind sixth place.
The lack of consistency among many teams would make a comeback possible. However, it does not currently look as if Stuttgart have what it takes, as they have won only one of their last nine games.
The recent 4-4 draw against Union Berlin went down in the history books in several respects, as the final score was already decided after 45 minutes (plus stoppage time).
Odds analysis
In five of VfB’s last seven games, at least two goals were scored before half-time, and against Union it was an incredible eight. The bet “Over 1.5 goals in the first half” is therefore not out of the blue, with odds of 2.20 at Betano.
Stuttgart has already squandered a 23-point lead. On the one hand, this makes the bet “VfB scores first” a possibility, but the odds here are only 1.42. On the other hand, you could go all in and say: Heidenheim wins after falling behind!
Those willing to take this risk will be rewarded with odds of 10.0. For a direct result bet, I’m thinking 3-2, which takes the defensive weaknesses into account nicely. With odds of 21.0, Bet365 is really going for it here.
VfB Stuttgart vs. Heidenheim: Both are fighting a downward trend
16 goals conceded in the last seven matches and only one clean sheet since January do not suggest a stable defense. The team has conceded 50 goals in total, compared to just 39 after 34 matchdays in the 2024/25 season.
It was the season in which VfB were almost unbeatable at home. With just one defeat, 13 wins and 50:15 goals, Stuttgart were a force to be reckoned with on the Neckar. The fans can’t stop shaking their heads when they look at the current figures.
Six wins, seven defeats, 26 goals conceded – these statistics are a far cry from last season. The last five games have all been lost, with 13 goals conceded.
In the last four home games, VfB even took the lead but squandered the 1-0 advantage. In addition, there were very late goals in all five games, and the spectators at the MHP Arena are all too familiar with late knockouts in the form of stoppage time.
Accordingly, the bet “Heidenheim will score in the second half” would be a great option for you, with odds of 2.07 at Betano. Of course, the seven goals conceded from counterattacks should not go unmentioned.
Will FCH breathe a sigh of relief in the relegation battle?
Stuttgart are hoping for the return of Jamie Leweling, who has been out injured recently, on Friday, while Josha Vagnoman could also be ready to play for a few minutes. Will they manage to win two games in a row against Heidenheim for the first time?
The history is not that long, with only seven matches between the two sides. Since then, the results have been mixed. 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 0-2, 3-3, and 3-1 – the results from VfB’s perspective have been anything but boring.
The visitors from the Swabian Alb don’t have a long trip ahead of them, but it’s all the more important. In their recent 0:4 defeat to FC Bayern, FCH were lucky not to be completely run over.
After losing 0-3 to Frankfurt and 0-1 to Leverkusen, it was their third defeat in a row and the first time this season that they failed to score in three consecutive games.
Frank Schmidt’s team has now failed to score in 13 games in 2024/25. Two points ahead of Bochum, three ahead of Kiel, but eight behind Hoffenheim? It seems as if the trio at the bottom of the table will be fighting it out among themselves to avoid relegation.
Before the 0-3 defeat at SGE, Heidenheim had picked up points in three consecutive away games, and for the first time since Christmas, an away defeat saw them concede more than one goal.
The fact that five of the last seven goals conceded came before half-time highlights the defensive problems. No wonder that a VfB goal on Friday is only available at odds of 1.50.
My VfB Stuttgart Heidenheim tip:
The Swabian derby is coming up – last season, it was a cause for celebration for both sides. Both Stuttgart and Heidenheim have deteriorated significantly. In the case of FCH, this could unfortunately culminate in relegation.
It’s not over yet, but direct salvation seems hardly feasible. On the other hand, it’s quite possible that VfB is already focusing on the cup final – Stuttgart’s defense certainly seems to be in summer break mode.
After conceding four goals against Union and five home defeats in a row, I don’t believe the home side will be able to keep a clean sheet. The visitors must play for the win, otherwise they face direct relegation. My prediction is therefore:
Both teams to score!
