Conference League quarter-final first leg, Thursday, 11.04.2024
With all the top matches in the Champions League, it’s easy to forget that the Conference League continues this week.
The first leg of the quarter-final is scheduled for tonight in Pilsen, when Viktoria take on AC Florence.
I’m expecting a knockout round first leg in the Czech-Italian duel. That’s why I’m betting on under 2.5 goals and taking odds of around 1.80 with the matching Interwetten voucher
8 remaining teams from 7 nations – the Conference League lives up to its promise again this year. Teams from countries that might not stand a chance in the two higher-level UEFA competitions have serious hopes of winning an international title in the ECL.
With PAOK Thessaloniki and Olympiakos, Greece is the nation with the most quarter-finalists in this competition. After Slavia Prague in the 2021/2022 season, Viktoria Pilsen will now go down in history as the second Czech team to reach the last eight of the ECL.
Although the Red & Blues are the clear underdogs against Fiorentina, I don’t think it’s out of the question that they will progress against the out-of-form Italians.
The odds for the respective teams to progress provide a real exclamation mark here: Micro odds of 1.22 for the northern Italians to reach the semi-finals are offset by relatively high odds in the 3.75 range for the Czech representative to prevail.
In my opinion, the odds are too clearly distributed and do not reflect the actual performance of both teams
Unlike the team from Tuscany, third-placed Fortuna have had a perfect group stage. Pilsen won all six of their preliminary round matches and conceded just one goal in the process.
Overall, Miroslav Koubek’s team kept a clean sheet in seven of their eight matches in this competition. In the round of 16, however, they only prevailed against Servette Geneva on penalties after a goalless first and second leg.
Fiorentina’s two matches in the round of 16 proved to be much higher-scoring. After the 4:3 spectacle at Maccabi Haifa, they were able to advance to the next round a week later thanks to a 1:1 draw
At national level, however, things are looking anything but promising for the Gigliati. The Violets have now been waiting four competitive games for a league treble, and Vincenzo Italiano’s team are currently lagging far behind in the battle for international places.
The hope that they can qualify for Europe by winning the Conference League title is therefore all the greater. Last year, Fiorentina came close to winning the ECL title, but fell short in the final due to a last-minute goal against West Ham.
This year, alongside Aston Villa and Lille, Florence is considered the hottest ticket among the remaining participants. This is also confirmed by the bookmakers’ predictions: Bookmakers have Florence as the biggest favorites for the trophy behind Aston Villa with 4.0 odds.
Victorca are only given minimal chances of winning the title with odds in the low 20s. The six-time Czech champions are also seen as outsiders in front of their home crowd.
Some betting providers such as Crazybuzzer are offering up to four times the stake if Viktoria actually win the first leg. On the other hand, the odds for an away win settle at almost exactly 2.0.
Although I tend to see Florence in the semi-finals after both games, the 1.80 odds for the double chance 1X are quite respectable in my eyes. It’s not uncommon for the favorite to struggle a little in the first leg, so if I had to bet on the outcome of the game, I would most likely go for a draw.
Both teams come from a defensive base, which is why I’m expecting a rather tactical match in which the focus will be on avoiding mistakes
While researching this game, I came across a statistic that, while not the most meaningful, is all the more interesting: two and a half years after the competition was introduced, AC Florence, of all teams, currently top the ECL’s all-time table.
However, Viktoria Pilsen are also not doing too badly in this ranking with 15th place. After West Ham United, the Czechs even have the second-best points average of all previous participants.
Of course, given the short history of this competition, these figures are just gimmicks, but they underline the fact that the Red & Blues can certainly keep up internationally
However, the market values of the respective squads suggest that the two teams are not necessarily on an equal footing. While Koubek’s squad is worth €32.55 million, Fiorentina’s is worth just under €250 million.
And yet: I don’t see Pilsen as being without a chance, with a good result in the first leg, the semi-finals are definitely possible. On the other hand, the Viola already had a very difficult time in the round of 16 against the supposedly clear underdogs from Haifa.
The way the Eastern Europeans have marched through to this stage has also made a lasting impression on me. They haven’t conceded a single goal in their four home games in this competition so far
Of course, this first leg isn’t an absolute cracker, but there’s something nice about seeing Viktoria Pilsen in the quarter-finals of an international competition in my eyes.
For the hosts, the two upcoming knockout matches are definitely among the highlights of the club’s history. The stadium only has space for 12,000 spectators, but the Czech supporters will certainly create a great atmosphere.
Meanwhile, I’m predicting a hard-fought, sometimes tough game with few goalmouth scrambles and my prediction is: There will be less than 2.5 goals scored
