Bundesliga 20th matchday, Friday, 31/01/2025 at 8:30 p.m.
During the winter break, the Werder Bremen fans dreamt of Europe. After all, the prospects were good after a strong first half of the season. In 2025, however, the green-whites are not yet up to temperature, having only taken two points from the first four games.
SVW last earned a point in Dortmund with a man advantage. Will it be enough for the first three points at home against strong Mainz? This could bring the sports club closer to Mainz and make up ground on the coveted places.
However, I don’t dare to make any initial bets in my Werder Bremen Mainz tip, I expect a close game with at least one goal for both teams. Interwetten has the right odds for today’s match.
A last-minute free-kick cost Werder the victory against Heidenheim and in Dortmund Ole Werner’s team initially went 0-2 behind despite being outnumbered. The free-kick decision was just as irregular as BVB’s 2-0, so there was also a bit of bad luck involved.
Ultimately, I’m not yet satisfied with Bremen’s defense this year. For long spells, Bremen keep their opponents away from goal, but individual lapses then cost important points in the end.
The betting providers’ prediction
I have to say that I am a little perplexed that we are getting a nice 1.60 for both teams to score when we look at the match odds. After all, the betting providers are expecting a close game.
Werder are slight favorites in their home Weser Stadium at odds of 2.45, with Mainz at 2.85. A draw is considered the least likely outcome at odds of 3.45.
KI prediction Werder Bremen vs. Mainz: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Without knowing which odds I looked up, ChatGPT also has both teams’ goals on the radar, but sees only “low risk” in this bet. In four of the hosts’ last five matches, both teams scored.
The second quote presented by the AI is somewhat more exciting, namely that Werder will score the first goal of the game, which has actually been the case in five of Bremen’s last six home games.
At home, they have not scored well so far, mainly thanks to a weak season star. They have only managed two wins at the Weser Stadium, and no Bundesliga team has scored fewer three-pointers.
Titled as a “high risk” bet ChatGPT the result tip: 2:2. Werder has already had four league games with this result – due to an offense that usually works well, but expensive mistakes at the back. Not an unrealistic result for Friday.
The 11.0 odds are tempting, but Mainz have yet to play 2-2 this season. I would only place a free bet here.
Analysis: Werder Bremen vs. Mainz
In 2025, Werder have already conceded 11 goals despite scoring seven themselves, and that in just four games. The games were definitely not boring. Against Dortmund, Werder only really got going in the last third of the game after making a lot of substitutions.
Otherwise, I only liked the performance against Heidenheim (3:3). In the 2:4 against Leipzig and 0:2 against Augsburg, Werder was not present in the opponent’s penalty area in some phases and did not react well to the deficits.
I expect that once again it won’t be enough for a clean sheet. In fact, they only managed to keep a clean sheet against Dortmund (0:0) on the first matchday. In the eight home matches that followed, the Bremen back line was breached each time.
Incidentally, Mainz have scored in nine of their last ten games. Since the end of October, they have only failed to score against Leverkusen (0:1), and even then the 5-0 team had a few good chances and that was without Jonny Burkardt, who once again had to be substituted early due to injury.
Odds analysis
The striker is also not expected to be ready for Friday’s game. Nevertheless, I think Mainz can do well. VfB Stuttgart, who have so far shown themselves to be anything but weak through January, went down 0-2 against FSV.
Due to the many high-scoring matches of the green-whites, who will definitely play for a win on Friday, play courageous, offensive football against any opponent, the “Over 2.5 goals” could be added on top, in addition to both teams scoring.
The merger of both odds allows Winamax to offer a strong 2.05 odds, which is free of betting taxes. If you are not yet registered, you can get a free bet of up to 100 euros there!
Werder Bremen vs. Mainz: Mainz have the second-best defense!
I’m not deterred by the fact that Mainz now have the third-fewest goals conceded in the league. The 23 goals are only bettered by Bayern Munich, who only had to fish 16 balls out of the net, and St. Pauli (21).
The “zero-fivers” lost to Leverkusen and Union, but stabilized again with the victory against Stuttgart. The sixth-placed team is just one point behind the Champions League places.
Werder is three places below them and can move up to one point with a win, which is clearly in their sights after the 2-1 first leg and the pressure to perform after their weak showing in January!
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Werder without their top scorer against Mainz
The first encounter was won by Werder 2-1. Marvin Ducksch gave the team from the Weser an early lead, Jae-sung Lee was able to equalize. With ten men on the field for the last half hour, Bremen surprisingly scored the winning goal through newcomer Derrick Köhn.
Speaking of suspensions, this time Köhn is included, while Jens Stage has to watch from the sidelines. The Dane and top scorer received his fifth yellow card against Dortmund. He has scored seven goals this season.
In midfield, Werder is losing an important key player, but Bremen still has some alternatives in the ranks and the goals in recent games were scored by other offensive players. Marco Grüll, in particular, is getting along better and better at Werder.
The Austrian was highly recommended by Werder icon Andreas Herzog. He has scored four goals in the last three home games. His goal scoring rate for Friday is a lucrative 4.20.
Meanwhile, Justin Njinmah is fit again. In addition to Stage, only Keke Topp is missing from the offense. In addition, the ex-Kiel coach has to do without Felix Agu, while Julian Malatini and Niklas Stark are expected to be available again.
What also speaks for both teams scoring is the fact that Weder and Mainz handle their opportunities well. With a chance conversion rate of 11.8 for Mainz and 10.5 for Bremen, they have strong statistics.
My Werder Bremen Mainz Tip:
Mainz wants to collect more important points and consolidate at the top in what has been an outstanding season so far. Werder, on the other hand, are still winless in 2025 and want to finally get their first three points at home to stop their downward slide.
But at home, only against Dortmund on the first matchday did they keep their white coat, this year they have already conceded eleven goals. I think we will see the next entertaining game involving the green-whites.
My Werder Bremen Mainz prediction: Both teams to score.
