Bundesliga Matchday 31, Sunday, 04/27/2025, 5:30 p.m.
Is someone quietly sneaking their way into the international spots? The 31st matchday of the Bundesliga could bring some exciting changes to the table, and a club from the far north is responsible for that. Werder Bremen is on fire!
The Hanseatic team is in the middle of a winning streak, which of course should continue on Sunday. What’s interesting in my Werder Bremen St. Pauli tip is, of course, that the visitors are also in really good form and have nothing to worry about in terms of relegation.
So, two teams are meeting who can say with Nordic euphoria: Things are going well. This makes it all the more difficult for me to come up with a concrete betting recommendation. I have decided on the “double chance 1X” with a maximum of three goals.
Pauli defend excellently, with only Bayern and Leverkusen conceding fewer goals. Bremen, on the other hand, have conceded only one goal in their last four games – could it be that neither team scores in this direct duel?
I could basically live with a draw. But: Since SVW really needs to win in order to keep their European dreams alive, this could open up space for the Kiezkickers. In other words: I don’t think this northern derby will be boring.
The betting providers’ prediction?
For our German bookmakers, Bremen’s run is of course a decisive factor in setting the odds. If you want to bet on another three points, you’ll get an average of 1.90.
On the visitors’ side, who haven’t won at the Weserstadion since 1956 (!), the odds are climbing a little higher. But with an average of 3.90, you can be more than satisfied with THE history.
The two teams have shared the points six times this season, with St. Pauli only drawing once away from home. If you still want to bet on a point for both teams, you can secure odds of 3.85.
AI prediction Werder Bremen vs St. Pauli: ChatGPT’s prediction
Does ChatGPT know anything about northern derbies? On this 31st matchday, we’re firing up the AI machine again and taking a look at its suggested tips – and this time, they’re not bad at all.
For example, we have the 1-0 result bet. Since Bremen has not conceded a goal in four of its last six games and Pauli has lost five times in this manner in 2024/25, I think this result is not out of the question.
I’m also going with the “under 2.5 goals” bet for the reasons just mentioned. St. Pauli has the third-best defense, Bremen is keeping things tight at the moment, so there really shouldn’t be any spectacular action.
What about the tip “Bremen scores first”? Since Bremen has already picked up twelve points after falling behind, that’s not necessarily a sure thing. I think both a 1-0 and a 0-1 result are realistic over the course of the game.
Analysis: Werder Bremen vs St. Pauli
Europe, here we come – but who exactly? Half the Bundesliga is currently vying for international competition! Fourth-placed Leipzig currently has 49 points, tenth-placed Augsburg 43.
Everything is still up for grabs in between, including for Werder Bremen. The northern Germans have 45 points to their name, thanks to their current run. They have won four in a row and five of their last six games, which is an impressive feat.
This is the first time they have won four in a row since the 2014/15 season, and the streak achieved under Viktor Skripnik back then could now be equaled. It’s not as if SVW have scraped through against relegation candidates.
2-0 against Leverkusen, 2-1 in Stuttgart, 2-0 against Frankfurt, 1-0 against Bochum and 3-0 against Kiel – it’s been a colorful mix of results. And one thing is immediately apparent: this team can defend after all!
Four clean sheets in the first 24 rounds, now four clean sheets in six games – that’s an impressive improvement. But the 2-4 defeat to Gladbach in between shows that they are perhaps not quite there yet.
Odds analysis
St. Pauli has the third-best defense – but unfortunately also the worst attack! I can therefore imagine going one step further than the AI and saying: Let’s take the “Under 1.5 goals” bet. At Bet365, the odds are a strong 4.00.
Since the beginning of December, Hamburg have only gone into the break behind once. Will the “Double Chance X2” pay off after 45 minutes this time? Bet365 is offering odds of just under 1.50. By the way, you can also enjoy a bonus of up to $100 in the form of betting credits here.
We can even go one step further and speculate that there won’t be any goals in the first half. If the score is 0-0 at half-time and you bet on exactly that result, the odds are 3.00.
Werder Bremen vs. St. Pauli: Will both teams go on the attack?
Werder has won all of its matches against promoted teams this season. When was the last time it had more wins against newcomers? 2009/10. And what happened this season? That’s right: Bremen slipped into the Champions League qualifiers.
People are dreaming on the Weser, but the players still know how to assess the situation correctly. The third-best away team in the league wants to say goodbye to its home weakness shortly before the end of the season.
They won their last two games in a row, and both without conceding a goal. Overall, however, five home wins is still relatively thin pickings. Basically, it’s no problem for the Green-Whites if they fall behind.
They have already picked up twelve points this way, with only FC Bayern ahead of them (13). In the first half of the season against St. Pauli, they didn’t even have to chase a 0-1 deficit, as they took home a 2-0 win.
Admittedly, there haven’t been that many recent encounters between the two sides. In 2021/22, the two clubs met in the 2. Bundesliga, sharing the points twice with two 1-1 draws.
St. Pauli can secure their place in the league
Nevertheless, the following fact cannot be ignored: St. Pauli have not won at the Weserstadion since 1954! A more than impressive run for Bremen, even if almost all of the matches were a long time ago.
The FC St. Pauli players probably don’t even know how long their club has been waiting for three points at the Weser. This weekend, they could secure their place in the league, as nothing can go wrong now.
They are eight points ahead of the relegation play-off spot and ten ahead of the first direct relegation spot – with four games to go! The returnee is performing excellently and is not letting minor slumps unsettle him.
The Kiezkickers have lost only one of their last six games – and a 2-3 defeat at the Allianz Arena is not that bad. It was one of only three matches this season in which they conceded three goals.
Defensively, hardly anyone can beat Hamburg. They have conceded a total of 36 goals, with Bayern (29) and Leverkusen (35) only slightly stronger. The defense makes up for what the attack leaves on the table – 26 goals mean they have the weakest offense.
St. Pauli has only scored twice with a header, which is the lowest in the league. On the other hand, the fact that the team has only dropped four points after taking the lead is very impressive and speaks for strong nerves.
There have been five away wins in 2024/25, a new record! There is no question that the club from the Hanseatic city can be more than satisfied with this season. When they win away, it is thanks to top defensive performances – they have conceded just one goal in their five wins.
In terms of personnel, Jackson Irvine is still injured. It will probably only be decided at short notice whether he will be fit to play in Bremen.
My Werder Bremen St. Pauli tip:
Will Werder Bremen and St. Pauli celebrate together? A green-and-white victory would put Europe within reach, and the visitors from Hamburg could celebrate early survival despite a defeat, provided their rivals cooperate.
Of course, both teams want to take all three points, and both are in good form. Werder has played itself into a frenzy and is suddenly able to defend as well. This is something the Kiezkickers have never had any problems with anyway.
I see the home side as having a slight advantage, but due to the strength of the Paulians, I’m only going for the “double chance 1X.” As I’m very impressed by the defenses at the moment, my overall tip is:
Bremen to score with under 3.5 goals!
