Who will win the 2024 Ballon d’Or? Favorites, candidates, list & prediction for the World Player of the Year award

The 68th Ballon d’Or (French for “Golden Ball”) will be awarded to the best footballer in the world for the 2023/24 season at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris on October 28, 2024.

For the third time in the award’s history, the Ballon d’Or winner will be chosen based on the results of a season rather than performance within the calendar year.

Who will win the 2024 Ballon d’Or and be named World Footballer of the Year?

All information about the Ballon d’Or 2024 favorites, including season statistics, the mode and procedure of the prestigious World Footballer of the Year award, as well as the previous winners and the history of this award.

Ballon d’Or 2024 election: date, time & place

The favorites for the 2024 Ballon d’Or according to the bookmakers’ predictions are Vinicius junior and Rodri.

The Real Madrid forward and the Manchester City midfield strategist are considered to have the best chance of winning the “Golden Ball”, as the world footballer betting odds from Bet-at-home show.

Only behind them, and in some cases even further behind, come other Ballon d’Or nominees and candidates. Such as Jude Bellingham, Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane.

Date & time: When is the Ballon d’Or 2024?

Since the Ballon d’Or award is now considered an award for the best performances of the past season – i.e. the period from August to July of the next year – the ceremony also takes place early. No longer in December, but already in October.

The 2024 Ballon d’Or award ceremony will take place on October 28, 2024 in Paris. As usual, the venue for the event will be the Théâtre du Châtelet.

Sky will once again provide a TV broadcast and livestream in Germany.

Overview of the 30 nominees for the 2024 Ballon d’Or

  • Kylian Mbappé (Paris Saint-Germain, now Real Madrid / France)
  • Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid / Brazil)
  • Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid / England)
  • Toni Kroos (Real Madrid / Germany)
  • Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid / Spain)
  • Antonio Rüdiger (Real Madrid / Germany)
  • Federico Valverde (Real Madrid / Uruguay)
  • Rodri (Manchester City / Spain)
  • Erling Haaland (Manchester City / Norway)
  • Phil Foden (Manchester City / England)
  • Ruben Dias (Manchester City / Portugal)
  • Bukayo Saka (Arsenal / England)
  • Martin Ödegaard (Arsenal FC / Norway)
  • William Saliba (Arsenal FC / France)
  • Declan Rice (Arsenal FC / England)
  • Cole Palmer (Chelsea FC / England)
  • Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa / Argentina)
  • Harry Kane (FC Bayern Munich / England)
  • Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen / Switzerland)
  • Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen / Germany)
  • Alejandro Grimaldo (Bayer Leverkusen / Spain)
  • Mats Hummels (Borussia Dortmund, now AS Roma / Germany)
  • Dani Olmo (RB Leipzig, now FC Barcelona / Spain)
  • Lamine Yamal (FC Barcelona / Spain)
  • Nico Williams (Athletic Bilbao / Spain)
  • Artem Dovbyk (FC Girona, now AS Roma / Ukraine)
  • Hakan Calhanoglu (Inter Milan / Turkey)
  • Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan / Argentina)
  • Ademola Lookman (Atalanta Bergamo / Nigeria)
  • Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain / Portugal)

The Ballon d’Or favorites under the microscope: Who will be the world footballer?

For months, football fans around the world have been discussing who will receive the “Golden Ball” for the best footballer of the 2023/24 season on October 28, 2024.

Again and again, there are fierce debates in the run-up to and after the event about who among the Ballon d’Or candidates and world soccer favorites is most deserving of the “Golden Ball”. This time will be no different.

There are many favorites for the 2024 Ballon d’Or. The list of nominees ranges from Rodri, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius junior, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe to Phil Foden, Florian Wirtz and Toni Kroos.

Who are the biggest favorites for the Ballon d’Or 2024 award? What speaks for who? Arguments and statistics of the biggest Golden Ball contenders!

When the question “Who will win the 2024 Ballon d’Or” is asked on October 28, the answer could be “Rodri”. Rodrigo Hernández Cascante is the linchpin in Manchester City’s play and also the clock in the Spanish national team.

Rodri led the Furja Roja to the European Championship title in the summer of 2024. Just how big a part he played in the European Championship victory was demonstrated by his being named “Best Player of EURO 2024”.

He also won a title with Manchester City last season – the league championship. Rodri was in the English Cup final with the Citizens, but in the Champions League he only made it to the quarter-finals with the Skyblues.

The fact that he didn’t make it to the CL final and thus didn’t win the title could prove to be a disadvantage among the Ballon d’Or 2024 favorites.

Who will win the Ballon d’Or 2024? Bellingham is a contender

Among the favorites for the 2024 World Player of the Year award, another midfielder emerges: Jude Bellingham.

Bellingham has a decent chance of being presented with the “Golden Ball” at the 2024 Ballon d’Or.

The Englishman had a strong season with Real Madrid. With the “Royal Ones”, he became Spanish champion and won the Champions League.

In addition, Bellingham scored a total of 19 goals in the Spanish league last season – that was the fourth-most and tied with Robert Lewandowski.

What is also an argument in Bellingham’s favor among the Ballon d’Or 2024 favorites: He was there with England in the EURO 2024 final.

Ballon d’Or 2024 election: Will Vinicius junior win the race?

In addition to Jude Bellingham, there is a second Real Madrid player among the Ballon d’Or favorites in 2024.

Vini Jr’s team successes are the same as Bellingham’s, with league titles and a Champions League triumph. A small advantage that could speak in favor of the Brazilian in this World Player of the Year vote: in the Champions League final against Dortmund, he scored the decisive second goal in the 2-0 victory.

But: in the Spanish league, Vini Jr scored four goals fewer than Bellingham – even though he is a striker.

And he was also unsuccessful with Brazil at the Copa America in the summer. They were knocked out in the quarter-finals by Uruguay.

Who will win the Golden Ball – maybe Kylian Mbappe?

If it’s up to him, Kylian Mbappe will receive the Golden Ball at the World Footballer Gala on October 28.

Among the Ballon d’Or 2024 nominees, however, France’s superstar is only an outsider!

Although he won the Ligue 1 championship title with Paris St. Germain in the 2023/24 evaluation period and, with 27 goals, was once again top scorer in what is, at best, the fifth best league in Europe, things have not gone optimally for Mbappe internationally.

Out in the Champions League semi-finals against Borussia Dortmund and with France, the dream of winning the title at EURO 2024 had already been dashed in the semi-finals.

What are the chances of world footballer Erling Haaland?

In addition to Rodri, Erling Haaland is another two Manchester City players on the list of Ballon d’Or 2024 nominees, who is also one of the favorites for the “Golden Ball”. Does he really have a chance?

The Norwegian consistently demonstrated his individual class last season!

Haaland scored 38 times in the 2023/24 season, which is the basis for the Ballon d’Or 2024 vote. He scored 27 goals in the Premier League, making him top scorer for the second year in a row, by the way.

This would give him a certain advantage over Real Madrid striker Vinicius Junior, who is also considered a favorite for the 2024 Ballon d’Or.

In terms of club-level success, the superstar striker is on par with his teammate Rodri – Premier League champions, FA Cup final, out in the CL quarter-finals.

Rodri was European champion, Haaland was not selected for Norway for EURO 2024. You can’t blame him for having a weaker national team than Rodri.

Harry Kane is one of the favorites for the 2024 Ballon d’Or

The last time a footballer from the German Bundesliga won the Ballon d’Or award was in 1996, when Borussia Dortmund’s Matthias Sammer won. Robert Lewandowski was named FIFA World Player of the Year in 2020 and 2021, but that’s about it.

What are Bayern striker Harry Kane’s chances under these circumstances? The English striker is of course among the candidates and favorites for the 2024 Ballon d’Or!

Harry Kane scored 36 goals in the past Bundesliga season and was also top scorer. With his 8 goals in the “premier league”, Kane scored a total of 44 goals in the past season – six more than Erling Haaland.

This also won Kane the “Golden Boot”, the award for Europe’s top scorer.

His shortcoming compared to all the other Ballon d’Or 2024 favorites is that he has not won a title with his teams. Not with Bayern Munich (third in the league, second-round exit in the DFB Cup and semi-final in the Champions League) and not with England either.

He did reach the final of EURO 2024 with the Three Lions, but in the end Spain were better – which means that Rodri, for example, has a better argument among the favorites for the 2024 Ballon d’Or.

Ballon d’Or 2024 nominees: Lautaro Martinez as an insider tip

An insider tip among the nominees for the 2024 World Player of the Year award is the Argentine Lautaro Martinez.

Martinez won the Italian league title with Inter Milan last season and with Argentina he won the Copa America title this summer.

What’s more, Martinez was the top scorer in the Copa with five goals. He scored a total of 24 goals for Inter in the previous season, making him the top scorer in the Serie A.

The disadvantage of Martinez among the Ballon d’Or 2024 favorites and candidates: unlike Bellingham, Vinicius Jr. and Kylian Mbappe, he has little of a lobby. In addition, the Italian league is seen as weaker compared to the Spanish and English leagues.
What are the German chances in the 2024 World Player of the Year election?

Matthias Sammer was the last German player to be awarded the “Golden Ball” in 1996. At that time, he received it when he was voted “European Footballer of the Year”. Does a German player have a chance of winning this award this year?

Florian Wirtz and Toni Kroos are considered to have the best chances of winning the “Golden Ball” in Germany, although these are very slim.

Wirtz won the Bundesliga and the DFB Cup with Bayer Leverkusen, and he was also in the Europa League final with the Werkself. Kroos won the Spanish league title and the Champions League with Real.

The other two Ballon d’Or nominees from Germany – Antonio Rüdiger and Mats Hummels – are considered to have no chance at all among the 30 contenders.

In addition to Harry Kane from Bayern Munich, Granit Xhaka and Alejandro Grimaldo (both from Leverkusen) are also on the list. Will the “Golden Ball” go to the Bundesliga in 2024?

More Ballon d’Or 2024 favorites – who still has a chance?

Lamine Yamal is by far the youngest player among the 2024 World Player favorites. At EURO 2024, the 17-year-old played great and even set a European Championship record with his goal in the semi-finals. However, he could not win anything with FC Barcelona.

The same applies to Nico Williams – a strong European Championship including winning the title, and at the club level, he even won the Spanish Cup with Athletic Bilbao.

Do the two Spanish young stars among the many Ballon d’Or 2024 nominees have a real chance of winning?

Phil Foden could potentially calculate a small chance of winning the “Golden Ball 2024”. Champion with Manchester City, “Best Player of the 2023/24 Premier League Season” and European Championship finalist with England.

One insider tip among the candidates for the 2024 Ballon d’Or is Dani Carvajal: league title and CL victory with Real Madrid (including a goal in the final) as well as European champion with Spain. This makes him the number one among the 2024 World Player favorites in terms of titles.

But as a right-back, does he really have a chance of being named the best player of the past season?

The Ballon d’Or & World Player of the Year election winner since 2010

This is how the Ballon d’Or vote works 2024

The World Footballer of the Year award is a bit complicated. It is decided 25% each by…

  • .. the captains of all national teams
  • .. the coaches of all national teams
  • .. the FIFA users
  • .. a group of 100 media representatives from the top 100 nations in the FIFA world rankings

History & difference: World Footballer of the Year or Ballon d’Or?

The Ballon d’Or award for best footballer in the world is often a source of confusion.

The two awards have a history that is as different as it is shared, which can be somewhat confusing. The winners are also determined in different ways, and in the end, one important question remains unclear: Who is the best?

For example, the Ballon d’Or, awarded by the French magazine France Football, is taken as a synonym for the World Footballer of the Year award by many fans.

This is because the first Ballon d’Or was awarded in 1956, when France Football editor-in-chief Gabriel Hanot called on his European journalist colleagues to select the footballer of the year.

The first winner of the Ballon d’Or was Stanley Matthews of Blackpool FC. For decades, the only players eligible for selection were those who played for a European club.

It was not until 1995 that the criteria were relaxed to allow all players to be selected, regardless of their origin. However, the condition remained that they must play in Europe.

The FIFA World Player of the Year was born – from 2010: merged with the FIFA Ballon d’Or

In 1991, FIFA, the world football association, launched its own award. The first winner was Lothar Matthäus, who was then playing for Inter Milan.

France Football and FIFA eventually joined forces and awarded a joint prize with the logical name FIFA Ballon d’Or. In 2010, two awards were made into one – this is how the FIFA Ballon d’Or came about. But only until 2015…

Since 2016, there have been two prizes again for the best footballer of the year – the Ballon d’Or and the FIFA “The Best Player” award.

In 2016, 2017 (both Cristiano Ronaldo), 2018 (Luka Modric) and 2019 (Lionel Messi) the same players won both awards. In 2020, the Ballon d’Or was not awarded due to the pandemic, while the FIFA award – “World Footballer” went to Robert Lewandowski. In 2021, Messi won the Golden Ball again.

Since then, however, the two awards have been running separately again, as they were before the cooperation. However, due to the long tradition of the Ballon d’Or (first awarded in 1956), many fans still regard the term as synonymous with FIFA’s World Player of the Year award.

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