Wolfsburg – Dortmund Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 21 on Saturday, 07/02/2026 at 15:30 CET
If the mascot of the “Black and Yellows” were a shark and not a bee, then I would claim that according to the current Bundesliga schedule, he smelled blood in the water last weekend at the latest.
Because the German record champions stumble unexpectedly, which seems to spur BVB on indirectly. After all, the gap between first and second place is getting smaller and smaller!
After rummaging around in the offers of verified betting providers, my Wolfsburg Dortmund tip was correspondingly easy for me – win Borussia at odds of currently about 1.75.
Especially since VfL is not a stronger opponent than the one that Kovac’s team has repeatedly beaten at national level in recent weeks!
I primarily trust my football expertise with my Wolfsburg Dortmund tip, while data lovers can hardly avoid joining this approach and also betting on Borussia.
Since the 3-1 victory in the DFB Cup final in 2015, VfL Wolfsburg have won only two of 22 competitive games against Borussia Dortmund, while losing 18 duels.
Most recently, it even suffered three defeats in a row! In total, the Wolves have failed to score in 13 of their last 19 competitive games against BVB. A clear statistical advantage for Dortmund.
Wolfsburg – Dortmund Prediction & Betting Tips
Sure, the Champions League playoffs could dissuade Kovac’s team from showing 100%, but I doubt that. Because especially now that the record champions are wavering, Borussia will leave no stone unturned to make the championship exciting again!
Victory BVB with HC -1 at odds around 2.92 is therefore a consideration that I am seriously considering hours before kick-off. Wolfsburg are missing various key players, and Jenz’s suspension certainly doesn’t make the whole thing any easier!
1. Goal & Match: Dortmund at combined odds around the doubling value of your stake would be an effective means of making more profit than from my already recommended Wolfsburg Dortmund tip from the headline.
Especially since the “Wolves” have already conceded goals in 7 of their last 10 home games before the half-time break. Consequently, BVB – if they start the game on the right foot on Saturday – could save a possible lead over time!
What you need to know about Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund betting
- Wolfsburg’s record is worrying. Since the first matchday, only four wins in 19 games have been achieved, with almost all successes against teams from the bottom of the table.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in 13 league games and have averaged 2.15 goals per game under Niko Kovac in this phase with strong defensive stability.
- In the last five meetings against the Wolves, BVB have scored an average of 1.8 times per game and won the two most recent meetings without conceding a goal (1-0 and 4-0).
- Although no Dortmund player has scored in double figures so far, Serhou Guirassy is the top favourite on the betting market with eight goals, even if he currently falls short of his odds of previous years.
Wolfsburg – Dortmund: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
While I was watching a bit of the Olympics, our digital football brain was tinkering with betting suggestions, which I then evaluated individually for you from the point of view of a Bundesliga expert.
The output of this Wolfsburg-Dortmund AI prediction is quite usable in parts. Dortmund/Dortmund at odds around 2.67 is based on the same idea that I myself have for this game!
However, I would rather take the suggestion of Serhou Guirassy with caution, even at attractive odds of currently 3.33.
The striker scored a brace on the last matchday. But at the same time, that was exactly as many goals as in his previous 15 Bundesliga appearances combined. If you ask me, there are far better candidates!
1st half: Over 1.5 goals is another really great suggestion, and the AI also explains to me why! Wolfsburg have a habit of contributing to a turbulent start, as they have scored the most goals in the league within the opening quarter of an hour (8).
However, it is precisely this offensive orientation that could allow them to run into one or the other ice-cold counterattack by the guests against Dortmund, which would subsequently contribute to an eventful first half.
The best odds for Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund
Established and new bookmakers alike seem to be convinced that the championship fight in Germany will once again become more exciting!
At least from a market point of view, according to the currently traded Wolfsburg Dortmund betting odds, it is already clear that the guests should have 48 points on their account after this matchday!
A home win for VfL is rated at a high 4.10. The markets acknowledge the home advantage of the Wolves, but still expect Dortmund’s quality and penetration to prevail. The Bayern fans among you will certainly not like that.
For a point split, there is about 4.10. Here, the bookmakers calculate a scenario in which Wolfsburg exerts pressure at times, but Dortmund remains in control. Tension and tactical consideration could characterize the action over longer periods of time.
A three-pointer by Borussia is finally led at 1.72. The markets base the role of favourites on individual class, squad depth and experience. The Black and Yellows are considered clearly superior. A victory is considered likely, but by no means guaranteed.
Wolfsburg vs Dortmund Match Analysis:
Wolfsburg will march courageously forward from the start and try to play their usual offensive game – via the wings, quick crosses and vertical passes to the top.
They want to show that they can control the game, especially after the disappointing performance against Cologne, and will therefore build up pressure early on. But that’s exactly where the danger lies: Dortmund lurks for every mistake and is ice-cold on the counter.
Borussia are extremely efficient, exploit every gap mercilessly and can make a lot out of little. Whether in attack or when losing the ball at the back.
With their strong record at xG and xGA, they often control the game at will, can create chances and even close spaces before Wolfsburg becomes dangerous.
VfL allow an average of almost 15 shots per game, and Dortmund have so far consistently converted many opportunities, beating the xG by 5.1 and scoring goals from the chances that other teams would miss.
So if the Wolves act too offensively right from the start and open up too much, they could very quickly fall behind and, in the worst case, see Borussia go into the dressing room with a 3-0 half-time lead!
Dortmund will use the speed and precision of their strikers to punish every mistake made by the home side. A dangerous mixture for a game that could tip over into a one-sided affair early on.
Wolfsburg Form Check
Wolfsburg are still not coming out of the crisis after last Friday’s 1-0 defeat at Cologne. With only 19 points from 20 games, the “Wolves” are experiencing their weakest Bundesliga season so far.
Coach Daniel Bauer brought offensive changes at half-time. But his team could not avert a second defeat in a row and remained without a goal of their own for the first time in twelve games.
The main problems lie in the defence: Wolfsburg have only kept one clean sheet so far. Namely, in the 1-0 home win against Hamburg on 25 October 2025.
With 42 goals conceded, they now even have the third-worst defence in the league and have now been waiting for a clean sheet for twelve Bundesliga games.
Moritz Jenz will be missing for the hosts on Saturday, as he is suspended after the fifth yellow card of the season against Dortmund. The strong central defender, who has been an integral part of the starting eleven since the winter break and has 13 Bundesliga appearances, leaves a noticeable gap.
Denis Vavro and Konstantinos Koulierakis are expected to form the central defence, but it is difficult to really compensate for Jenz’s absence!
Dortmund Form Check
Borussia are now unbeaten in 13 Bundesliga games since the 2-1 defeat in the classic against Bayern and are back in the race for the championship!
Thanks to a defeat and a draw by the Munich team as well as great performances by Borussia on several matchdays in a row, the gap has now been reduced to only six points!
Speculation that Dortmund is now a serious title contender is increasing, especially in view of Bayern’s upcoming visit to Signal Iduna Park on matchday 24.
With 45 points from 20 games, the Westphalians are experiencing their best Bundesliga season in seven years and have both the third-best attack and the second-best defence in the league.
Now let’s move on to the personnel issues: Emre Can was absent from last Sunday’s 3-2 win against Heidenheim due to illness and is therefore unlikely to be at 100 percent for the upcoming game against Wolfsburg.
Marcel Sabitzer and Filippo Mane are also still unavailable, but Dortmund have enough alternatives to put VfL in their place even without these two important players.
